Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 91
(Odds on that dog doing something adorable: very, very good.)
Though we've debated the topic nearly to death over the last few days, there's still no online betting establishment giving odds on whether UFC 91 will really sell 1.2 million pay-per-views, as Dana White claims. What a shame. Knowing absolutely nothing about oddsmaking and even less about basic math, I'd put the line at +900. For all you 'tards out there, that means I don't think it will happen. The line on us seeing both Mandy Moore and Laura Prepon during the broadcast? -230. The line on the two of them fighting it out over the last Cosmo at the after-party? +15000. That's not because they wouldn't do it, but because the Cosmos never run dry when you hang with Dana White. Never.
As for the odds on actual fights that will actually happen, BestFightOdds.com has done all the leg work for us, and here are the best lines for UFC 91:
Brock Lesnar (-121) vs. Randy Couture (+111)
Kenny Florian (-174) vs. Joe Stevenson (+164)
Demian Maia (-200) vs. Nate Quarry (+195)
Dustin Hazelett (-150) vs. Tamdan McCrory (+175)
Gabriel Gonzaga (-370) vs. Josh Hendricks (+371)
Mark Bocek (-105) vs. Alvin Robinson (+110)
Jeremy Stephens (-115) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+117)
Jorge Gurgel (-115) vs. Aaron Riley (+126)
Matt Brown (-185) vs. Ryan Thomas (+190)
Thoughts...
Pick 'em: Some oddsmakers have Couture even, some have him at -105, but the truth is that no one can call this fight with any certainty. It's just too unpredictable for too many different reasons, so forget the odds and approach this one as a pick 'em. Or say screw it and just bet against the guy with the phallic tattoo on his chest. You know he's made at least one bad decision in his life.
The Lone Blowout: Your only chance to win big without risking big at UFC 91 is the Gonzaga-Hendricks bout. What you should know about Hendricks is 1) this is his UFC debut, which means Octagon jitters could always be a factor, and 2) he's been spending his time as a Randy Couture sparring partner lately. So either he's gotten some good training along with good advice from Couture, or he's been helping someone else at the expense of his own preparation. Seems like a kid with potential, but this is a tough first test in the UFC.
Favorite Underdogs: Aside from the lines that are too close for anyone to be considered a real underdog, my two favorites to beat the betting favorites are Tamdan McCrory and Ryan Thomas. McCrory because I love a nerdy-looking kid who keeps surprising people, and Thomas because I'm just not convinced Matt Brown is that good. He knocked out Jeremy May, which I consider a public service, but he didn't get to be 7-7 by being as hardcore as the TUF producers made him seem. Just like Tila Tequila isn't actually interesting, Brown isn't actually the world's toughest man. The lies reality TV tells us, huh?
EMAIL THIS
DIGG THIS
Comments
Jugger Says:
CP,
Maybe you have this in your archives and can share. I'm interested to know what the odds were on Randy when he fought Sylvia and when he fought Gonzaga. How do they compare with these numbers?
bpd Says:
"Or say screw it and just bet against the guy with the phallic tattoo on his chest. You know he’s made at least one bad decision in his life."
Two. Dude got with Rena Mero. Her herpes has syphillis.
MMA n00b Says:
So where do I sign up to place a bet? Any good websites out there?
Geriatric Peon Says:
Riley and Robinson aren't drastic underdogs but they have a good chance of pulling off wins.
Anonymous Says:
Everyone in the entire US is delerious saying Coture has the edge... as delerious as Kaplin was about getting knocked out on TUF...
MN Mad Man Says:
Lesner
Florian
Maia
Hazlett
Hendricks
Robinson
Anjos
Gurgel
Thomas
Bill C. Says:
Couture
Florian
Maia
McCrory
Gonzaga
Robinson
Dos Anjos
Gurgel
Brown
PotatoHead Says:
Lesnar's about to do to Couture what President Elect B.O. is about to do to Obamanation (formerly America).
Sorry gentlemen... I'm still in shock over our collective stupidity.
Anyhow, Tim Sylvia's an uncoordinated clod... and Gonzaga's got no heart. Brock Lesnar's a beast and a half and would destroy either one without breaking a sweat. Soooo... I'm cashing in my 201(K) and betting it all on that bad boy.
Sodak Says:
stevenson, coture for sure hendricks just for the odds gonzaga ain't that good. MMA NOOB i use betus which ain't bad but they don't always have all the fights or the best odds.
BakedPotatoHead Says:
Yeah just like what G.W.B. did to the Bushpire!!!!! hahahahaha I combined his name and a a term refering to a group of people in associated with a territory, I am so................... oh wait that was fucking lame, please kick my ass.
Jugger Says:
There is no way I could put money on Brock with a clear conscience. He's got 3 fights on his MMA record. A circus act win in K-1, a loss to Mir, and a win over Herring.
Everybody looks to the Herring fight as proof that Brock can dominate a legit HW, but everybody seems to forget that Jake O'Brien totally schooled Herring in a wrestling snooze-fest. If O'Brien can hold Herring down for 3 rounds, it really means nothing that Brock can too.
He is big though.
Reel Sandman Says:
I'm betting on the barn cat.
perky set Says:
WAR OBAMA!!!!
I don't know that i'd bet anything on the BL/RC fight. Mr. Penistattoo is just too unknown. He did what he had to in order to beat herring. it wasn't pretty and it didn't show much beyond than strength, speed and wrestling. we knew he had those. If he can avoid mistakes like committed against Mir (and that's a big 'if,' i know) I think he'll do well. Couture barely beat Tim "bigpuss" Silvia, I don't think he stands up well against penistattoo.
WAR OBAMA!!!
UFC fan Says:
When you are in love with a man who's initials are B.O. you have serious problems.
I set your odds at -600 understanding the humor to +450 being a retarded douchebag.
yo Says:
whats that poster in the back on the left? looks creepy.
walrus Says:
Joe Daddy's gonna smoke Florian -- maybe not.
I'd like to see Matt Brown win, also.
Noah Says:
@ UFC fan:
So you're saying he is a favorite to understand the humor and an underdog for being a retarded douchebag? That seems like a compliment to me.
perky set Says:
Hey UFCfan,
Go fug yourself. I've sh*t out higher SAT and GRE scores than you can ever hope for.
Cordially,
PS
perky set Says:
WAR OBAMA!!!
MMA FAN Says:
Couture
Florian
Maia
McCrory
Gonzaga
Robinson
-
Dos Anjos
WAR BONG Says:
Lesnar by raging-retard-opalata...unless Couture borrows Mel Gibson's tardwhistle.
if Tina Turner is in the audience...Lesnar's fuked.
mma-pr0 Says:
lesnar
stevenson
quarry
mcrory
gonzaga
robinson
stevens
riley
brown
Dmonicideals Says:
Lesner
Florian
Maia
Hazlett
Hendricks
Robinson
Anjos
Riley
Thomas
UFC fan Says:
Uhh noah you are one of those "tards" the writer of this story was talking about, congrats.
And perky, I have forgotten more about college, and school grades than you will ever learn. The fact that you are still in your school years tell me that you are not even close to being enlightened, or smart yet.
Stop spending mommy and daddys money and get a job you bum.
BakedPotatoHead Says:
Nah, UFC Fan was right with the fact that I don't keep up with my Fox news humor of abomination. Unbelievable that when I think of a highly educated individual that was just elected President I don't think of an abomination, I guess my sense of humor has not evolved to an enlightened state that enjoys that and jokes about BO. UFC fan, you are truly a higher level of being.
Noah Says:
@ UFC fan
Look closely at the betting odds. See how Florian has a -174 next to his name? That means if you bet $174 on Florian and he wins, you make $100. This is called being the favorite. Florian's opponent, Stevenson, has a +164 next to his name. That means if you bet $100 on Stevenson and he wins, you make $164. This is called being the underdog. I'm pretty sure I've explained it quite clearly, now even you should be able to understand it.
According to you, BakePotatoHead's odds of understanding your shitty humor are set at -600. Let's say I bet $600 that BakePotatoHead would understand your shitty humor (which you stole from the Daily Show anyway, how original). It seems BakePotatoHead understood your lame attempt at a joke, so my bet is successful, I only get $100 for risking $600. Do you see what I'm getting at here?
On to your other betting line, you set BakedPotatoHead's odds of being a retarded douched bag at +450. I could place a bet of $100 and if he is a douche bag, I would make $450. Because the chances of BakedPotatoHead being a douche bag are low, I can risk less money and the reward would be greater. Do you understand?
I'm trying not to come right out and say that you're the douche bag who has a poor sense of humor (because you have no jokes but the ones you steal from others). But that wouldn't be very constructive, would it? Try reading this post carefully, maybe several times, my hopes are that you'll eventually understand it. Good luck UFC fan, you're going to need it!
BakedPotatoHead Says:
Noah, MAKE THE BET!!!!1!111!
*whispers* I am a giant douche bag.
tree_choppa Says:
@ mma noob:
sportsbetting.com
sportsbook.com
betus.com
Turner Says:
If you can get the odds for some of these fights that you say you can, then it is time to quit your day jobs and become a professional gambler. Some of the lines here are scalps, which means you can bet on both fighters and not lose. Take the Hazelett v McCrory fight for example. You have Hazelett at -150 and McCrory and +175. You can bet $150 to win $100 on Hazelett and and bet $100 on McCrory to win $175. If Hazelett wins you break even, and if McCrory wins you won $25.
There are also no lose scenario odds on the Bocek v Robinson, Gurgel v Riley and Brown v Thomas fights.
Anonymous Says:
If you want to bet on the fights, the best sportsbook to bet at is www.betcris.com.
Take my advice, and whatever you do, DO NOT gamble at www.betus.com. You have to win twice at that place. Firstly, your fighter has to win, and then you have to fight to get paid. It's a scumbag book run by thieves.
just some dong Says:
damn, no love for quarry on here? fuck that he's gonna kick ass. i hope gurgel actually dies.
lesnar
stevenson
quarry
hazellet
gonzaga
bocek
stevens
riley
thomas
UFC fan Says:
My sense of humor was totally lost on noah, sad.
hey noah, go another rant, I really enjoy it.