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Attention Gamblers: Junior Dos Santos Is a Slight Favorite Over Cain Velasquez


(I’m only giving this face-off a 6 out of 10, since Velasquez didn’t have his championship belt with him, and his teammates weren’t in the background throwing middle-fingers at the crowd. Props: UFC.com)

With Cain Velasquez‘s shoulder injury taking him out of action for all of 2011 (so far), Junior Dos Santos was forced to keep busy with a coaching gig on The Ultimate Fighter and a #1 contender fight against Brock Lesnar Shane Carwin. Any number of misfortunes could have befallen Cigano in the interim, but he managed to keep his spot at the front of the line, and will face Velasquez later this year in the heavyweight title fight that should have happened all along. (By the way, Velasquez’s return on October 8th in Houston isn’t guaranteed yet, due to his health status.)

Between Velasquez’s long injury layoff and Junior’s outstanding body of work in the UFC — culminating with a three-round drubbing of Shane Carwin on Saturday that saw JDS out-strike and then out-wrestle Carwin — the oddsmakers are looking very kindly upon the Brazilian challenger. At this point, Dos Santos is a -120 favorite in the fight, compared to Velasquez at -110.

The line is so close that you won’t get rich betting on Velasquez even though he’s technically the underdog. (For the unfamiliar, those “-” numbers are the amount of dollars you’d have to risk to bring home a $100 profit.) But it says a lot about the perception of where these guys stand in relation to each other. The champion has been out of sight, and thus, out of mind. And again, Dos Santos’s wrestling defense and late slam-takedowns against Carwin demonstrated that he’s more than just a pair of hands, and can beat a wrestler at his own game. Will Velasquez still be able to threaten JDS in that area? Because I’d give the striking edge to Dos Santos, easily.

In a related story, Michael Bisping is more than a 2-to-1 favorite over Jason Miller at the moment. Anybody think they can double their money on Mayhem?

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jielundd- June 13, 2011 at 7:21 pm
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El Guapo- June 13, 2011 at 11:23 am
Not trying to jinx it or anything, but to make lines THAT far in advance of a fight is kind of pointless. Considering how often guys are forced to pull out because of an injury, oddsmakers shouldn't even bother unless there's less than a month left till go time.
RwilsonR- June 13, 2011 at 11:12 am
That line has them pretty much even. I think even is a fair line given the experience both of them have had in the UFC. Both have beaten relatively similar quality of opponents, and neither has yet faced another fighter quite like the other. The belt around Cain's waiste doesn't mean he has necessarily beaten better competition. Both have different talents, and both seem relatively adept at dealing with the other's talents. This is going to be a good fight.
Get Off Me- June 13, 2011 at 10:20 am
Miller will beat Bisping, the number will come down as the fight gets closer so buy no or cry later.
I had JDS to beat Cain before Cain's rotator cuff injury(not good for a striker) and before I saw JDS's takedown defense and takedown ability in the Carwin fight.
If JDS hurts Cain like Kongo did, rest assured that JDS won't stand there like a deer in the headlights while Cain grabs for a leg to hold onto.
Nintendong- June 13, 2011 at 10:00 am
I have no idea why Bisping is such a heavy favorite here. Does anyone really think he can walk through Mayhem? I not really a fan of each, but you have to be daft to count Mayhem out of this one. He style is perfect to stifle Bisping.
SnackDaddy- June 13, 2011 at 9:58 am
Hm... sounds like a good deal to me! Cain Velasquez is in a different league from Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson, Dos Santos last two opponents that were given a three round hiding. He's in a different league than Brock Lesnar as well. He's in the exact same league as Dos Santos. This fight's gonna be epic. It's possibly gonna be one of the best fights in the UFC ever. It was meant to happen for a while. Honestly, Dos Santos and Cain have cleared out the UFC heavyweight division. No one's even come close to beating them. Fuck, i can't wait for this fight. I'd still give the upper hand to Cain.
crankster87- June 13, 2011 at 8:51 am
Not to take anything away from Roy Nelson or Shane Carwin, BUT JDS couldn't finish either while even Brock was able to pull off a submission on shane and roy just defies all logic
Fatty McDickbutts- June 13, 2011 at 8:38 am
See, Mayhem I'd throw some cake on... JDS and Cain is too close to be worth betting over
MKO- June 13, 2011 at 8:14 am
Come on, not a story. The lines will change several times before, right after, and until the fight whenever, you know, they fight is announced. Those odds are about as close to even as possible, and I do think JDS should be a slight favorite (both guys have some question areas as they haven't had to use their full arsenals; but we now know more of JDS in that he is retard strong, can stuff a good shot, and has been able to get up with relative ease, and can eat some serious punches), as he has faced and beaten better competition. Again, almost even.
At least this won't (shouldn't) cause the outcry of Jon Jones being a big favorite over an unbeatable, healthy Shogun.
Insane_Merc- June 13, 2011 at 7:55 am
This is crap no respect, This is ok look at what happen to the Brock Wagon, next JDS is going down in the 2nd or 4th round.
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