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Betting Post-Mortem: UFC 96

(Well, this sure didn’t help.  Photo courtesy of

After my meager success at WEC 39, I decided to up my wagers just a little with the hopes of getting my profits into double digits following UFC 96.  The results were…mixed.  Here’s how I did, in case you’re keeping score of my finances at home.

Bet: $50 on Shane Carwin at +140
Result: Won $70 profit
What I Learned: Plenty of you told me I was crazy for betting on a guy who was undefeated against bunch of scrubs.  One of you even claimed Gabriel Gonzaga would have beat Randy Couture if not for a headbutt.  But I went with my gut and profited.  So there.  Who’s the jackass now?  You are.  You’re the jackass.  I’m the guy with an extra seventy bucks in my pocket.  I’ll be at the strip club if you need me.

Bet: $20 on Jason Day at +160
Result: Lost…badly
What I Learned: I was essentially betting against Kendall Grove here, because when has he looked impressive lately?  The answer to that question is, on Saturday night when he dropped Jason Day and then elbowed him until Day’s eyes went white.  Maybe betting against a guy who knows he has to win or get fired isn’t such a good idea after all.

Bet: $20 parlay on Carwin + Day + Hamill + Vera
Result: Day screwed me.
What I Learned: Goddamn Jason Day.  He’s the only thing that stopped me from winning $211.24.  This is my second straight parlay bet ruined by one bad pick.  Though I guess that’s why the parlay is both profitable and risky.  I’ve got to start playing these a little more conservatively.  Maybe I shouldn’t be making these bets after drinking all day.

Net Result: Started with $90, ended with $80.  Thanks, Jason.  That’s the last time I put my faith in a Canadian whose initials are not GSP.  And I felt so good for calling the Carwin fight.  I’ve just got to put this behind me and come back strong for the next event.  In the meantime, can I borrow twenty bucks?

Edit: Wow.  For those of you still arguing over this, I went back and checked by BetUS numbers (which is harder than it sounds because by now there’s tons of decimals and odd number from a year and a half of MMA bets) and I did come out $30 ahead.  Still with $80, but only if you consider $50 as the starting point.  In other words, I’m better at this than previously thought, Jason Day notwithstanding.  Still just as bad as previously thought when it comes to math, though.  Now the question is, what to do with that extra thirty bucks?  Let it ride.  That’s what.  Word.

Cagepotato Comments

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yuntian- November 13, 2011 at 5:15 pm
speculation that Coach Outlet France could soon senior credit strategist at Bank investors are increasingly concerned
Anonymous- March 11, 2009 at 5:31 pm
"Who's the jackass now....I'll be at the strip club if you need me." In his own words. LOL!!!!
Anonymous- March 11, 2009 at 5:22 pm
"I'll be at the strip club." "Who's the jackass now?" In his own words.
anonymous- March 11, 2009 at 10:01 am
Marcer- March 10, 2009 at 10:03 am
^ I wish it were so. But... I doubt it.
k- March 10, 2009 at 8:43 am
You know, going back and reading the comments, I can only assume 98% of the people who said 80 were trolls.
k- March 10, 2009 at 8:33 am
LMFAO at this thread.

For everyone who actually thinks $80 is correct, here is another way of looking at it:

He had 3 completely independent bets: $50, $20, $20, a total of $90.

1) bets $50, profits $70, meaning return $120


He now has $120, $20, $20 to his name => $160

2) bets $20, loses $20, now has $140

3) bets $20, loses $20, now has $120

Final $120 - $90 = $30 profit

This is just an alternative way of looking at what several other people said: ( 50 -> 120, 20 -> 0, 20 -> 0, 90 -> 120)
armfarmer- March 10, 2009 at 8:17 am
In case it's not clear in the comment I made about him winning 70 near the top of the page, I was talking strictly about the Ganzaga/Carwin bet and nothing else. I didn't mean he won 70 profit for the night.
armfarmer- March 10, 2009 at 8:13 am
I'm an American and I figured it out in 30 seconds...

I think the problem is a lot of the people that don't get it have never gambled on sports before. For those of us that have it's pretty f'ing simple. You don't count the money you put down, that's your money that you already had. Assuming the odds are dead even and you make a 50 dollar bet you win 50 dollars not 100. If you lose the bet you lose 50. Pretty simple stuff.

It's like if you make a 20 dollar bet with a friend. If you win you don't hand him 20 bucks and then he hands you 40 and you're like "I won 40 bucks!" He just gives you a 20.
Anonymous- March 10, 2009 at 8:05 am
No wonder why the U.S. is in such a shit hole right now...
Anonymous- March 10, 2009 at 7:53 am
He gave 90 at the start of the night. He got back 120. What is the difference between those two numbers. I'm astonished at some of the logic used on this thread.
armfarmer- March 10, 2009 at 7:38 am
Yeah.. saying he walked away with 80 is right except that 50 of it was his to being with so you can't add the 2 and say it's profit. I haven't been paying any attention to this argument I just read the last couple posts about it and based on those he made 30 dollars of profit. If you count the 50 he bet... which was already his to begin with.. then add the 30 and think that he made 80 profit then you are a dumbass.

30 dollars of profit- correct
80 dollars of profit- dumbass
SMITH313- March 10, 2009 at 7:31 am
who fucking cares what he won or lost? did you see the PPV? we are all winners!!
Anonymous- March 10, 2009 at 7:27 am
You can't lose money twice on the same fight you retards, unless you make two bets. If you bet twenty bucks and lose they don't come back and take another $20 outta you pocket. If you bet $20 bucks on a fight and lose you are out $20, not $40. All you "He walked away with $80" people I have some great ocean front property in Tennessee you guys should look at.
Brandon- March 10, 2009 at 6:26 am

The anonymous above me is correct.
Tpark- March 10, 2009 at 6:25 am

I shoulda put my money on Carwin=/ Damn
Anonymous- March 10, 2009 at 6:18 am
-50-20-20+50+70 = 30
Reasoning: Dished out 50, 20 and 20, got back his 50 and won 70
Note: 30 dollar profit

50+70-20-20 = 80
Reasoning: Got his 50 back and won 70, lost his 20s
Note: Getting his 50 back is not revenue, it just brings him back to 0

50+70 = 120
Reasoning: He won 70 on his 50
Note: The 50 is not revenue and he also lost 20 and 20

Red Baron- March 10, 2009 at 5:33 am
It's always amusing to watch MMA fans do math. Do I think I'm smart enough to do the math? No. But I'm smarter than you, because I knew my limitations and didn't try. You know what they say: Better to let people think you're a fool than to open your mouth and prove them right.
MKXii- March 10, 2009 at 5:24 am
Jesus christ.

He lost the 40 bucks on his 4 fight parlay and Grove fight.

He made 70 dollars on a 50 dollar bet getting his 50 back which equals 120.

120 dollars minus the lost 40 = 80. God I hope you guys aren't from America, you make us look retarded.
squirrelnuts- March 10, 2009 at 5:12 am
math is fun.
armfarmer- March 10, 2009 at 4:38 am
Steve Addict,

If you look at the play by play cagepotato did of the fights there is a part where they talk about the ufc video game commercial and say that it shows page powerbombing jardine. Then they said they didn't know that ever happened in mma. Just taking a shot at them for saying something dumb because they were dead on with the Carwin prediction that I disagreed with. Guess you had to be there...
Cobra- March 10, 2009 at 3:14 am
Fuck, so many stupid people.

He bet 50+20+20 = 90 (easy right)

He won 120 on carwin (his original 50 + 70)

Why would they take away another 40 if you already did at the start

120 - 90 = 30

120 gross
30 net profit

seriously think about it a little, if he bets twenty, he doesnt get it back, no shit, why would that get taken of his gross amount twice
MKO- March 10, 2009 at 2:08 am
Alright, so first, he spent half the night passed out/eyes closed and hands over ears and bet $50 on Carwin and grossed $120 off that one bet. Next, he went back in time and lost $20 on Day, followed by making a parlay of $20 including the man he already lost $20 on. Next ...? And finally, step 5, profit.
bump- March 10, 2009 at 12:51 am
Nog yourself out got it right FIRST.
Bovice- March 10, 2009 at 12:38 am
Alright, so he bet $50 on Carwin, got $70 in profit, bet $20 on Day, lost miserably, then lost the $20 parlay. The odds were at +140 and +160 for Carwin and Day. He started at $90 and went home with $80, so if my calculations are correct..........

That equates to about eighty Washingtons that will be invested into multiple strippers' buttcracks this coming weekend.