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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Fall 2009

Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida
(Lyoto Machida walked into the gym that day just to learn a little jiu-jitsu, but he walked out as a witness to murder.)

With Labor Day weekend upon us we are forced to admit that MMA’s Summer of Weird – the summer that saw us reach new highs with UFC 100 and bizarre new lows with the Affliction: Trilogy cancellation – is over.  Waiting for us in the future is a fall fighting season full of fistic goodness.  But since there’s no significant action until mid-September, we decided to take a look at some of the current betting lines on MMA’s coming attractions.

Naturally, we turn to our friends at BestFightOdds.com for the most profitable lines on some select match-ups:

UFC Fight Night 19: September 16

Melvin Guillard (+215) vs. Nate Diaz (-220)
Gray Maynard (-264) vs. Roger Huerta (+264)

UFC 103: September 19

Rich Franklin (-150) vs. Vitor Belfort (+135)
Frank Trigg (+310) vs. Josh Koscheck (-355)
Junior Dos Santos (-127) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+115)

The Potato Index: UFC 102 Aftermath


(What do you get when you have a big left hand and not much else? One highlight in a losing effort. Photo courtesy of SI.com)

This week the Potato Index confronts one of mankind's oldest problems as we sort through the UFC 102 aftermath, and it goes a little something like this: How much does a fighter's stock drop if he loses after getting his testicles kicked up into his throat?  On one hand, a TKO loss never results in a rise on the Potato Index's arbirtrary numerical rankings scale, but on the other, simply not quitting and going off to sob in a dark corner is an accomplishment.  The answer to this age-old question, and others, awaits you.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +213

So you thought Big Nog was done just because he looks like he’s a senior citizen and fought like one against Frank Mir?  Anybody can have a bad night.  He showed on Saturday that he’s still got some bullets in the old gun, at least as long as he’s fighting representatives from the UFC’s AARP wing.  Unless someone wants to see him killed, though, please keep him far away from Brock Lesnar.

Randy Couture -56
It’s hard to be too critical of a gutsy performance like that one.  He didn’t look old or haggard, and didn’t lose because he was too slow or too weak.  He just wasn’t the better fighter that night.  Now we wait to find out what’s next, and whether the UFC really plans to give him two more years worth of fights, or if it’s just a way of keeping him off the Strikeforce roster.

Ben vs. Ben: UFC 102 Edition

Randy Couture and Brett Favre
(They never sleep and they'll never die.)

Well, here we are once again.  Time to battle it out over questions of who should keep it up and who should pack it in, how the UFC might get around Portland's weak economy and ridiculous taxes in order to fill an arena, and so much more.

Who will win tomorrow's main event? Subquestions: Is the winner worthy of a title shot and should the loser retire?

BG: I got Randy on this one. Both guys are coming off ugly losses, but while Couture's could be chalked up to his massive size disadvantage against Brock Lesnar, Nogueira's loss against Frank Mir seemed to be result of slowing reflexes and a softening of his famously iron-clad chin. Come to think of it, there's a common theme in all three of Big Nog's UFC appearances -- he's taken a lot of hard blows to the head, many of which have knocked him down, and he doesn't seem to be able to do anything about it. Meanwhile, there's nothing to suggest that Randy Couture can't still be competitive against someone closer to his own size, and I think he can score a late TKO or unanimous decision over Nogueira with his striking and trademark clinch-boxing.
 
That being said, I have no desire to see Couture face Brock Lesnar again. They're just not in the same weight class, and their first fight left no questions unanswered. Hopefully Dana White understands that there's better uses for a legend like Couture then throwing him against the same brick wall. Of course, I could see Randy getting another crack at the belt if someone else manages to take it from Lesnar in the near future. And yeah, maybe Nogueira should retire if he loses tomorrow. He's only 33, but after 10 years of wars, he looks and fights like he's older than Randy. Risking more brain trauma is probably not in his best interest.

BF: I’m also taking Couture, but not because I think Nogueira has one foot in the grave, as you seem to believe.  I just think that Couture is the worst possible style match-up for him.  We all know that he wasn’t 100% against Frank Mir, but he’s supposedly doing better now and even at his worst he can take a beating, which is part of his problem.  But really, I don’t see how he mounts any effective offense against Couture.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 102


(Between the Frank Mir fight and "Stop! Or My Mom Will Shoot," I'd say some apologies are in order. I'll let you gentlemen decide who would like to go first.)

Gambling ain’t what it used to be in the city of Portland.  The dogs don’t run at the old Multnomah Greyhound Track anymore, so you’ll have to find somewhere else to get stabbed with a pocketknife.  The Oregon lottery just doesn’t give you that sweet, out-of-control feeling you crave.  Even the place where I used to go and watch the occasional cockfight has closed its doors.  Thankfully, UFC 102 is coming down this weekend and bringing plenty of action with it.  Let’s take a look, shall we?

Betting lines come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150) vs. Randy Couture (-160)
Keith Jardine (-140) vs. Thiago Silva (+130)
Demian Maia (+157) vs. Nate Marquardt (-160)
Brandon Vera (-190) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (+175)
Chris Leben (-135) vs. Jake Rosholt (+125)
Chris Tuchscherer (+301) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-345)
Justin McCully (+249) vs. Mike Russow (-260)
Tim Hague (+145) vs. Tom Duffee (-150)
Ed Herman (-130) vs. Aaron Simpson (+119)
Mark Munoz (-200) vs. Nick Catone (+190)
Evan Dunham (+120) vs. Marcus Aurelio (-140)

The breakdown…

Ask The Potato

Joe Son mugshot
(Nothing says, 'I regret that gang rape now that I've been arrested for it almost two decades later,' quite like this mug shot expression.)

Gather 'round, Potato Nation.  It's question and answer time.  We've got some good ones and some positively awful ones this time around, and we're equally excited about both.  But don't just be a selfish consumer of questions.  Head on over to this forum thread and ask a query of your own.  If you don't, we'll never forgive you.  Sure, we'll pretend to have forgiven you, but really we'll just be holding on to that hurt, waiting for the right time to use it against you.

I'm sure this opinion question has come up before, but I'm too lazy to check past posts. Besides, I have a timely reason for asking...I like Florian, and I still think he has a good chance tonight [ed. note: Geez, we gotta answer these more often] against BJ. But whenever I watch Kenny's "dressed as a samurai" entrance, I cringe. He looks like he bought the costume in the bargain box of the children's section of Halloween Adventure.

Lots of fighters try to come up with outfits and special routines for their ring entrances. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don't. But I can't think of any worse than Kenny's.  Can you top it? What would you say is the most embarrassing ring entrance? – Horror Fighter 

It’s interesting that you use the word ‘embarrassing,’ Horror Fighter.  Seems to us that the best way for a fighter to embarrass himself after an elaborate entrance is to lose, while if he wins it usually comes off okay.  For example, when Dave Kaplan came bopping out to the sounds of “Tenderness” by General Public, that seemed kind of cool.  Then he got his ass kicked by Junie Browning and suddenly it seemed way less cool.  Of course, a really ballsy, well-planned, and clearly rehearsed entrance like Akihiro Gono’s Rockettes routine has the ability to surpass victory or defeat.