UFC 84: ‘Ill Will’ — BG’s Official Picks

(Listen, buddy: win first, skanks later.)

As promised yesterday — here are the final picks I’m making for my ipecac bet with Ryan of Fightlinker. Will they be enough for me to avoid vomity humiliation? Well, Ryan has mentioned that he’s predicting Wanderlei Silva and Tito Ortiz will win their bouts, and I don’t see the rest of his choices being any less duhtarded. We’ll be scoring this on the three-point system: one point for calling the winning fighter, and additional points for correctly calling the method of victory (one point) and round (one point). How fun! My picks are below; feel free to debate them in the comments section. — Ben G.

MAIN CARD
B.J. Penn def. Sean Sherk via submission, 3rd round : I went over this in my UFC 84 gambling guide. Fowlkes made some good points yesterday, but I still think Sherk is going out like Joe Stevenson, with a bloody face and an arm around his neck. Just because Sherk’s two losses didn’t come via submission doesn’t mean that he’s unsubmittable, especially against someone as talented as Penn.

Keith Jardine def. Wanderlei Silva via decision: I also went over this in the gambling guide. (By the way, if you want to see a short video version of me making those exact same points, check out this clip from CombatWire.com.) Jardine was able to outsmart Chuck Liddell when they fought, and Wanderlei Silva is basically a dumber version of Chuck. I think the most logical pick is another decision win for Jardine.

Wilson Gouveia def. Goran Reljic via KO/TKO, 2nd round: I don’t like to pick against guys with undefeated records, but that rule shouldn’t apply when a fighter has less than eight pro fights, and Reljic (7-0) has beaten absolutely nobody you’ve ever heard of. I wouldn’t assume that Gouveia’s ground skills are necessarily better than Reljic’s, but I can see him catching the Croatian with a heavy shot, Lambert-style. Also, betting against the American Top Team is generally a bad move.

Lyoto Machida def. Tito Ortiz via decision: Machida isn’t a fight-finisher, and unless he’s in the cage with Ken Shamrock, Tito really isn’t either. But Machida is far more well-rounded, and his tendency to take his opponents out of their rhythm is well-documented. I’m very confident that Machida will win, and he could easily do it via TKO or submission, but given the recent fight histories of these two, a decision feels likely.

Thiago Silva def. Antonio Mendes via KO/TKO, 2nd round: Undefeated record + UFC experience + ATT = a total lock. Eight of Thiago Silva’s 12 wins have come via first-round stoppage; ten come via KO/TKO. The only advantage that Brazilian UFC newcomer Antonio Mendes has is that he’s 3-0 against guys named Silva. He is a hard-ass, though, and I don’t foresee a steamrolling. I say Mendes gets through round one, shaken but not quite out.

As for the undercard…
(more…)

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (21) DIGG THIS

UFC 83: Picks, Predictions, and More

(Will Serra prove to be MMA’s Buster Douglas, or will he send thousands of Canadians home drunk and angry?)

As UFC 83 draws nigh, we’re faced with the daunting task of predicting the winners in Saturday night’s bouts. But just picking the victor isn’t enough. In addition, we’ve decided to get really specific with our predictions, to the point where it’s mostly absurd. This makes it almost as much fun as the UFC drinking game, where you chug every time Mike Goldberg sounds way too excited about some upcoming movie/event/paid sponsor.

Hope you’ve got your Molsons ready for the UFC’s first Canadian event. It could be a long night.

Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre

Here’s the thing: a lot of people have been quick to write off Matt Serra, and we can understand why. His victory over St. Pierre was so utterly shocking – and he hasn’t been back in the Octagon since – that it’s hard not to think of that win as a one-in-a-million lucky shot. In other words, Serra seems to have about the same odds as someone launching a half-court shot at the buzzer. Sure, you can do it once, but twice in a row?

We have to consider the possibility that Serra might legitimately present problems, stylewise, for GSP. Then again, how has Serra been preparing for this fight? Well, he had back surgery, filmed a reality show, and worked out with Pete Sell. Will that get you ready to face someone like GSP, who may be one of the best pure athletes in MMA? Doubtful at best.

CP Pick: Georges St. Pierre.

Unreasonably Specific Prediction: TKO, 2:35 of round 3.

What to Watch For: the expression on Serra’s face when the Montreal crowd gives him a good old-fashioned Canadian razzing during the introductions. Will it be a look of grim focus, or ‘I-got-your-boos-right-here-ya-turkeys!’ Wait and see.

Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter

(more…)

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (25) DIGG THIS

The Betting Man’s Guide to UFC 83

(GSP is not impressed with your decision to bet against him, but he respects you anyway)

So, that tax refund is just burning a hole in your bank account. You can’t wait to send your “Economic Stimulus Package” money to some off-shore betting establishment. Before you go thwarting our magical economy band-aid with your irresponsible spending, American consumer, maybe you should see if you can’t learn something first.

The first thing to know about betting on MMA is that it does not qualify as a long-term financial strategy. The second thing to know is that telling girls in bars how much you have riding on this next fight won’t impress them the way you’re hoping it will. For some reason, their mothers didn’t teach them that the guys who gamble heavily on pro sports are the real keepers. Go figure.

But if you’re looking to drop some coin on UFC 83 this Saturday, it’s not a bad idea to do some analysis first. Here’s a look at the lines from Bodog, and where the money might be made.

Georges St. Pierre (-500) vs. Matt Serra (+325)

Serra’s still the underdog, and rightly so, though the odds aren’t as lopsided as the first meeting. Renzo Gracie – who has trained both men – claims to have pocketed close to ten grand betting on Serra last time, though even he has to be wondering if it’s the smart play this time around.

The question is, did GSP have a bad night, or does Serra truly represent a style problem for “Rush”, as he claims? While I tend to think it’s more the former than the latter, there’s another issue to consider.

In the past twelve months, Serra has done nothing but train, have surgery, and get booed by UFC fans when he shows up at live shows. The last time he stayed out of action that long he lost his first fight back, a decision against Karo Parisyan.

Contrast that with GSP, who’s beaten Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck, both convincingly, in that same time period. Ask yourself, who’s likely to be sharper and more confident on Saturday night?

The line here justifies small action on Serra, if you’re the type who favors cockeyed optimism over grim realism. But whatever you put down against GSP, you should consider it already gone.

Rich Franklin (-350) vs. Travis Lutter (+250)

(more…)

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (11) DIGG THIS

YAMMA Debuts Tonight : (

Well, we all knew this day would come. YAMMA 1 goes down tonight at the Trump Taj Mahal Arena in Atlantic City, New Jersey, starting at 9 p.m. The live pay-per-view card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT, and the final-final-final lineup is as follows:

Masters Superfights (two five-minute rounds)
Oleg Taktarov vs. Mark Kerr
Patrick Smith vs. Eric “Butterbean” Esch

Heavyweight Tournament (one five-minute round in quarter- and semi-final matches; championship fight is three five-minute rounds)
Ricco Rodriguez vs. George Bush
Travis Wiuff vs. Marcelo Pereira
Chris Tuscherer vs. Tony Sylvester
Sherman Pendergarst vs. Alexey Oleinik

Alternate Bouts
Antwain Britt vs. Bryan Vetell
Lamont Lister vs. Oleg Savitsky

Standby Alternate
Ron Waterman

Weigh-ins were held yesterday, and Butterbean tipped the scales — and I mean literally, like the thing fell over — at a shocking 416 pounds, meaning he’ll have a 176-pound advantage on Patrick “Because I Got High” Smith. Ricco Rodriguez weighed in at 267.2 on his first attempt, but was able to make the 265-pound limit an hour later. So for those of you who were hoping Double-R would be in better shape than during his paunchy performance against Antonio Silva at “Street Certified” in February, not so much.

We haven’t previously reported on the alternate-bout fighters, so here goes: Bryan Vetell is a 3-3 IFL vet who had the honor of being defeated by both Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson; Lamont Lister is also 3-3, and has fought in Cage Fury and Palace Fighting Championships; Antwain Britt has a 3-0 record in local promotions; and Oleg Savitsky, the night’s lightest competitor at 199 pounds, has a 1-1 record with his loss coming at the hands of Tim Boetsch. Our money’s on Savitsky to win it all.

We’re guessing that the show pulls in 2,500 PPV buys, but we really have no idea what to expect. Sooooo…anybody plan on attending? Anybody buying the pay-per-view? Has anybody ever seen The Producers, where Bialystock and Bloom come up with the scheme to raise more money than they need for a guaranteed Broadway flop that will close after the first night? Could this have been Bob Meyrowitz’s plan all along?

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (5) DIGG THIS

‘Shamrock vs. Le’: Fight-by-Fight Rundown

(The Good, the Bad, and the Leathery.)

Cyborg, Shields, and Mean Mr. Munchies may be M.I.A., but tomorrow night’s EliteXC/Strikeforce show still has some very compelling match-ups going for it, including a main event that will pit the fan-hyped Cung Le against the self-hyped Frank Shamrock in a middleweight championship bout. You can catch the action on Showtime starting at 9 p.m. ET/PT. Here’s what the televised lineup looks like…

Shamrock vs. Le (for Strikeforce middleweight title)
Frank (24-8-1) has talked his usual trash about how he’s going to spank the relatively inexperienced Le (5-0), but trust us, it’s only for promotional purposes; Shamrock isn’t dumb enough to actually believe he’ll be cruising through an easy one tomorrow, and unlike his brother Ken, he’s not dumb enough to stand and trade with a superior striker. Le has the most devastating kicks in MMA right now, and he ended his last fight — against Sam Morgan last November — via the ultra-rare body-kick KO. But like other fighters who come from a kickboxing background, Le’s long-range kicks often leave him open for single-leg takedowns, and Shamrock could capitalize. He’ll certainly be looking to take the fight to the ground when the moment is right and finish Le by submission, and we think Shammy will succeed in the second or third round. If they really wanted to make this one interesting, the loser would have to accept eternal banishment from San Jose.

Drew Fickett vs. Jae Suk Lim (welterweights)
A.k.a., “The Battle of the Guys Who Were Supposed to Be Fighting Other Guys.” Rage in the Cage/UFC vet Drew Fickett (32-5) has choked out fighters like Josh Koscheck, Kurt Pellegrino, and Carlo Prater, and has generally faced much tougher competition than “The Korean Icepick” (9-3), who spent most of his career in Spirit MC. We’re loving Lim’s nickname, but it’s not going to help him much against the far-more-experienced Arizona native. Both men hadn’t been preparing to face each other, so it’s a bit of a wash, but judging from how Fickett’s done against guys with Lim’s skill level, we’d say a first-round submission victory is nearly inevitable.

(more…)

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (7) DIGG THIS

‘Rhino’, Stann Go to War Tonight at WEC 33

(Doug Marshall will be hunting for his third title defense.)

WEC 33 goes down tonight at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas; if you have Versus, you can watch the action live starting at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m PT. Unlike the last two WEC events which featured three title fights each, only the light heavyweight belt is on the line at #33, with champ Doug “Rhino” Marshall — 7-2, and coming off a 55-second tapout victory over Ariel Gandulla at WEC 31 — facing Brian Stann, who has ended all five of his professional fights by first-round TKO. The complete fight card is below:

MAIN CARD
Doug Marshall vs. Brian Stann (light heavyweights)
Chael Sonnen vs. Bryan Baker (middleweights)
Ed Ratcliff vs. Marcus Hicks (lightweights)
Steve Cantwell vs. Tim McKenzie (light heavyweights)
Hiromitsu Miura vs. Blas Avena (middleweights)

UNDERCARD
John Alessio vs. Brock Larson (welterweights)
Sergio Gomez vs. Richard Crunkilton Jr. (lightweights)
Ryan Stonitsch vs. Alex Serdyukov (welterweights)
Chris Manuel vs. Kenji Osawa (bantamweights)
Logan Clark vs. Scott Harper (middleweights)

— BloodyElbow has weigh-in results and photos here.

— MMA Analyst posted (and yes, analyzed) WEC 33’s betting odds yesterday. Unsurprisingly, Chael Sonnen is the night’s biggest favorite, at -355 to Bryan Baker’s +285. Somewhat surprisingly, Doug Marshall is a +130 ‘dog, compared to Brian Stann’s -160 line.

— Websites that care a lot more than we do ran down the matchups here and here.

— While describing Doug Marshall, Sherdog dropped a David Draiman reference without any sort of explanatory clause or link. But I suppose if you’re reading Sherdog you’re already pretty well-versed in nu-metal singers.

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (0) DIGG THIS

Jake Shields: Ready for Primetime

By CagePotato Guest Contributor Brian Knapp

Victory rang hollow for Jake Shields on the night of November 10th, 2007. He needed only 3:39 to attach himself to Mike Pyle’s back and secure a fight-ending rear naked choke at EliteXC “Renegade” in Corpus Christi, Texas. It was supposed to be his crowning achievement, the win that would bring him his first major championship. Pyle had other ideas.

Plans for what was originally intended to be a welterweight title fight unraveled after Pyle, disgruntled with his treatment by EliteXC, turned down a contract extension with the fledgling promotion. As Shields stood in the center of the cage, his hand raised for the ninth time in as many matches, he could not escape the anger growing within him.

“I’m not going to hold it against [Pyle], but I was very irritated,” Shields says. “It cost me the title. I’m sure he had his reasons, but it seems like a stupid decision. It would have been a lot smarter for him to fight for the title and lose and to stay on good terms with EliteXC. Now where’s he fighting?”

A little more than four months later, Shields finally gets his crack at the EliteXC welterweight championship — a title most agree should already be fastened around his waist. The 29-year-old Californian will lock horns with UFC veteran Drew Fickett in one of three featured bouts at Strikeforce/EliteXC “Shamrock vs. Le,” which goes down this Saturday at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, CA. Shields understands a loss there would undo much of what he has accomplished during the past eight years.

“It’s a very important fight,” he says. “I’m on a huge winning streak, won nine in a row, and this is a title fight. I need to keep it going, and keep things on an upward swing.”

Conquering Fickett will be no easy task. An accomplished grappler in his own right, Fickett (31-5) last competed in December, when he submitted veteran Mark Weir with a rear naked choke at Cage Rage 24. Wins against one-time World Extreme Cagefighting welterweight title challenger Carlo Prater, current UFC lightweight contender Kenny Florian and Dennis Hallman anchor his resume. Fickett has delivered 20 of his 31 victories by submission, including a 2005 conquest of Josh Koscheck.

Shields realizes he has his hands full with the Arizonan.

(more…)

EMAIL THIS ADD COMMENTS (1) DIGG THIS