(If Dana is right, Jack Link’s Beef Jerky is about to get their money’s worth.)
UFC president Dana White appeared on ESPN First Take today (thanks to our friends at MMA Fanhouse for the heads up) to talk UFC 91, and it seems he isn’t backing down from his earlier prediction that this event would do over a million pay-per-view buys. This time White got even more specific with his figures:
“We think it’s going to be the biggest pay-per-view draw in UFC history,” White said. “We think we’re going to do 1.2 million buys on this fight. It’s a big fight, the WWE cross-over for this fight, a lot of WWE fans are going to tune in to see if their former wrestling champion can win in a real fight. Vince McMahon might even buy this fight.”
One hopes that White is relying on some kind of consumer research, as he has claimed in the past, and not just spouting off a number. But 1.2 million buys, in the midst of a recession? That’s the kind of claim that makes me want to call ‘shenanigans,’ as the kids say.
The shakiest part of this logic is the dependence on the curiosity of the WWE crossover audience, especially the portion of that audience that typically passes on buying UFC events. This is Brock Lesnar‘s third UFC fight. Granted, it’s his biggest one yet, but only fans who follow the UFC enough to realize the importance of Randy Couture appreciate that.
To the casual WWE fan that White is depending on, isn’t this just another Brock Lesnar fight? And if these WWE fans are so eager to see Lesnar in a real fight, wouldn’t they have been just as willing to pay for his first big fight against Frank Mir?
Maybe they were. UFC 81, which featured Mir-Lesnar and Nogueira-Sylvia as co-main events, did an estimated 650,000 buys. UFC 87, where Lesnar beat Heath Herring on the same card as Georges St. Pierre‘s successful title defense against Jon Fitch, did somewhere in the neighborhood of 625,000, according to the most generous estimates.
Those are great numbers. If they’re accurate, they represent two of the UFC’s most successful pay-per-view events of 2008 thus far. But in order for White’s prediction to pan out, UFC 91 would have to pull in roughly twice the viewers with a card that is, on the whole, not nearly as good as either UFC 81 or 87. Each of the other events featured big name title fights in addition to Lesnar’s bout. This time around, Lesnar is in the big name title fight, but beyond that the card looks like a very solid Fight Night event on Spike TV.
And this is supposed to pull 1.2 million buys?
Based on this year’s numbers, you could make an argument that Lesnar is the UFC’s biggest draw right now, which lends credence to White’s faith in WWE fans as avid pay-per-view buyers. But the gulf between what we’ve seen thus far and White’s prediction is simply too great. UFC 91 could turn out to be the biggest event of the year (in spite of its weak undercard) and still not come close to breaking one million buys.
1.2 million, especially for an event with slow ticket sales, might be nothing more than a pleasant but outlandish dream.
Loading ...
Comments
Mon, 11/10/08 - 04:42
It's possible...I recall the first UFC with Lesnar did like 625k (or maybe it was the 2nd card he was on) but the numbers showed that like 300-400k of those buys were FIRST TIME PPV purchasers (as in, WWE cross over fans). 1.2 million is a bit crazy, though.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 04:47
I have to say that even though Dana can come off as a dick, he knows his business. He has made MMA what it is in America today whether you like it or not, so when he says 1.2 million, I tend to believe it.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 04:54
I think it's going to be damn close to a million buys. They are promoting the heck out of this thing, every other commercial on ESPN is the trailor for this fight. Plus you gotta remember Couture is a way bigger draw than Mir or Herring...
Mon, 11/10/08 - 04:56
good point, Chondeazy, but 1.2 million is a very big number. and while dana has absolutely done a stand-up job with his business, when it comes to his public claims, he tends to say whatever bat-shit crazy thoughts roll off the top of his head. i remain hopeful, yet very skeptical.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 04:57
Well, if they think they're gonna sell that many PPVs they better start hyping this Pride-like circus act more than any fight they've hyped in UFC history.... oh, wait.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:10
If he somehow manages to shut down JustinTV and SopCast he just might tripple that number
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:13
If it wasn't for the economy and the fact that they haven't built this fight up as something special (I mean where was the weekly 24/7?), I could see 1.2 million buys being possible. I still think this event will do really well but I think they'll top off around 850,000 buys.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:19
I think it's wholly plausible. Lesnar has equalled sales before, and now they're putting him up against probably the most popular guy in the UFC. This fight has the hardcore fans, the casual fans, even non MMA fans interested. I think it'll be pretty close to what Dana's predicting.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:23
I'd like to issue a call to all the Hulkamaniacs out there. Listen brothers we gotta support Brock in his fight against this phony "wrestler" I know that the millions and millions of you Hulkamaniacs will drink your milk, eat your vegetables and order this pay-per-view. I know that this is no Sumer-Slam, but Brock is gonna prove once and for all, who is the greatest fighter in the world. So whatchya gonna do brothers?
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:25
I'm saying it right now - 850k buys. 1.2 million ain't happening. I'm extremely excited for this fight and it is definitely in the top 5 UFC fights ever, if not top 3. Fact is, Liddell v. Ortiz 2 was a bigger fight than this and did 1.1 million. That fight also took place when the economy was a little better and also played off the actual animosity between the two which always helps buy rates. Couture v. Lesnar will make a ton of cash and break some records but it will not hit 1.2 million. 850k. That is the number.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:27
851K
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:41
its going to be 735K and my shirt size is medium Royce Ken Dan Randy and Mark thank you in advance
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:57
If they would have kept Wandy/Rampage 3 on this card...it would do 1.2 million...but as others have said...I'm expecting around 800K.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:58
2 million buys easy. :p
Mon, 11/10/08 - 05:59
Yal are a bunch of fucking idiots. How could you say the under card is not good? Its fucking wvanderlei silva and rampage jackson and rashad evens vs. forest griffin. Main event is randy and brock. I think this is the best card i have ever seen. I think all of you are a bunch of pussy dumb asses and need to shut up. 1.2.... its going to happen
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:07
With Brock in a title fight vs a name like Coture, I can see the WWE fans comming in droves. Still, 1.2 mil buys is alot to hope for. I don't see that kind of numbers.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:13
id like to fuck gina cerano in her fat pussy. and aryani celest and rachelle leih.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:22
650 k tops. The reason? Everyone saving their 50 bucks for Dec 27th!
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:27
I hope something stupid doesn't happen like an eye poke (ala coture belfort), a cut or blown out knee, cause theres not a single other fight on that card worth paying for.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:43
by the way 1.2 million? whos he think cotures fighting Fedor?
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:45
Drowe, you are very, very confused. You should probably refrain from calling other people idiots and "pussy dumb asses" (what are you, 11?), when you have absolutely no clue who is fighting on this card. I wish I could see the look on your retarded face when you buy the PPV this saturday.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 06:56
Lodz Says: November 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm Drowe, you are very, very confused. You should probably refrain from calling other people idiots and “p*ssy dumb asses” (what are you, 11?), when you have absolutely no clue who is fighting on this card. I wish I could see the look on your retarded face when you buy the PPV this saturday. ************************************************** I agree. But just don't pay any attention to him. He's just trolling... I mean he can't be serrious,... maybe he is.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 07:17
Count me out , the card is pretty lack luster IMO , I'll just check out the fight video's Sunday before they get taken down
Mon, 11/10/08 - 08:07
Couture alone will pull in a large portion and with lesnar his opponent I can see this reaching maybe 1 mill.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 09:03
700k
Mon, 11/10/08 - 09:07
I think they'll only pull in the same numbers as Brocks first 2 fights. I buy the ppv's pretty regularly, but I'm not buying this one, I'm buying the next one. It's a much better card, and I'd much rather have Forest vs Evans, Nog vs Mir, and Rampage vs Silva on my DVR. I'll go watch this one at Hooters or something.
Mon, 11/10/08 - 09:47
877k, i'm calling it.
Tue, 11/11/08 - 01:39
i depict 6 somthing.... Im saving my money for Dec 27. i predict 9 somthing for that!
Tue, 11/11/08 - 04:02
They won't reach the expected number since Roy Jones JR is fighting that douche bag calzaghe. However you spell his faggot name. They are fighting on the same night correct? I know it's boxing but still Im sure that having the option of picking between two PPV's in one night will fuck up the UFC's chances of getting 1.2 million buys. Anyone agree? I personally hate boxing compared to MMA but still you can't ignore the fact that some people might choose boxing over UFC 91. I'm pretty sure it's on the same night anyways LOL correct me if Im wrong. :D
Tue, 11/11/08 - 04:05
OMGOMGOMGOGM THEY ALREADY FAUGHT DAMNIT I should research this shit before I make a comment. LMAO fuck Im stupid omg okay I can see them reaching a million. LOL Sorry everyone Im a fucking dumbass. Whoever told me they are fighting on the same night is getting a fucking head kick. DAmnit, good thing I didn't put my real name...muahahahahahaa FUCK cock sucker
Tue, 11/11/08 - 04:17
Don't be so hard on yourself TUF gay, you are a hub troll, and a moron, but don't beat yourself up....leave that to us, you scrawny pussy. :)
Tue, 11/11/08 - 05:58
Hey "Roy Jones Or UFC 91?", You are one dumb piece of shit. Good one moron.
Tue, 11/11/08 - 08:13
This is a title fight, not just a mir or herring vs. Lesnar fight. If I was a fan of WWE then I bet there forums are full of Lesnar going for a title in UFC posts. I think UFC will do about 850k to 900k of buys... I'm excited to see this fight even if Lesnar isn't due a title shot yet it's happening. No matter what anyone thinks this fight is one people want to see, like Kimbo's first MMA bout in EliteXC
Tue, 11/11/08 - 09:31
UFC 91 could concievably do those numbers & pull in the wwe audience, if they were smart about it & went after that audience & educated them a little. Why not buy advertising time for the ppv during wwe programming, explaining to wwe fans who Randy Couture is & what hes done, then drop in that hes fighting Brock Lesnar this weekend. Hell half the wwe fans probably still dont know Brocks in the UFC.
Tue, 12/13/11 - 08:51
Blogs ou should be reading... [...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]…...
Post a comment:
You must be logged in to post a comment.