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Gamblers Beware: Chael Sonnen Opens As Slight Favorite Over Shogun Rua

(Meanwhile, Shogun could be found outside the event’s velvet ropes, insisting to the bouncer that his girlfriend was already inside. / Photo via Getty)

Just a heads up, Potato Nation: The betting lines were released for the UFC on FOX Sports 1:1 headlining matchup between Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Chael Sonnen yesterday. Surprisingly enough, “The American Gangster” has opened as a slight favorite (-139) over the former champion (+100) despite being on the heels of back-to-back losses and winless in the light heavyweight division since approximately ever.

Although Shogun is also coming off a tough loss to Alexander Gustafsson at UFC on FOX: Henderson vs. Diaz and has in fact gone loss-win in his past seven UFC contests, many fans predicted that he would emerge a favorite over Sonnen based on his track record alone. It should also be noted that Shogun has never lost back-to-back contests in his MMA career. On the other hand, Rua’s inconsistency on fight night is always a potential issue and it would appear that the oddsmakers are not predicting a vintage Shogun performance come August 17th.

On a positive note, DW & Co. were able to clear up the legal snafu that was threatening to implode UFC on FS 1:1, so there’s that, we guess.

While fate would predict a Shogun win, the bookies would say otherwise. Which will you put your faith in, Nation?

-J. Jones

Cagepotato Comments

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mma4everbitchs- July 1, 2013 at 6:42 pm
Chill Sonnen by spinning backfist knockout
Mr_Misanthropy- July 1, 2013 at 4:52 pm
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that even a worn down Shogun has plenty of ways to win this fight. Shogun has really only looked bad against Gustafson who used his reach and his backwards jogging to win a decision. I think he has the ground skills to offer up some of Chael's kryptonite (any submission).
macreadysshack- July 1, 2013 at 2:21 pm
I'd agree with Algiers if this fight was at 185. At 205 I think Chael's style just falls apart. He's just not big enough to drag these guys down over and over and hold them down. Maybe with Shogun, though? He seems to be a medium to smallish sized LHW.
Get Off Me- July 1, 2013 at 12:00 pm
Ouch..make that +145 under 2 1/2 rounds and it's for the shogun bettors...Chael should be close to +190 to win by decision...
Get Off Me- July 1, 2013 at 11:34 am
It would be nice if Algiers was right but I think everyone else here has it bang on, right down to 12oz McDonald/Pickett FOTY. The over 2 1/2 rds is +145 right now and Chael wins by decision should pay an extra 50 cents. Happy Canada Day CP!
Jon Fitch and Exciting in the same sentence- July 1, 2013 at 10:33 am
I think Shogun will be very active off of his back. He's got really good sweeps and attacks the legs.

This will probably looking like Sonnen-Bisbing, with Chael rushing in head-first to clinch as often as possible. Chael by D, in an ugly fight.
algiersheadkick504- July 1, 2013 at 10:02 am
Chaels getting kneed and and Eatting hammerfists till he retires
ArmFarmer- July 1, 2013 at 9:53 am
I see sonnen smothering his way to a frustrating decision win. I don't know whay anyones surprised at the betting line.
The12ozCurls- July 1, 2013 at 9:31 am
I'm putting my money on Brad Pickett vs Michael McDonald being Fight of the Year. I'll stay away from wagering on the main event. There's just too many variables to lay any cash down comfortably.