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Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum’ Edition


(“Overeem is my son. Scott Coker is my uncle. Gina Carano is my hot cousin. Josh Barnett is my sister’s meathead boyfriend.”)

Betting odds for the complete lineup of tomorrow night’s Strikeforce card were released yesterday, and looking over these numbers, it seems like the perfect opportunity to dig yourself out of the hole you put yourself in by following our previous gambling advice. Now, we don’t actually recommend the use of off-shore gambling sites these days, in light of the government’s recent eRaids, but hey, entertainment purposes and all, right? Check out the juiciest lines for Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, then listen very carefully to what we have to say…

Main Card (Showtime, 10 p.m.)
Alistair Overeem (-321) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+300)
Josh Barnett (-319) vs. Brett Rogers (+309)
K.J. Noons (-144) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+135)
Daniel Cormier (-300) vs. Jeff Monson (+325)
Valentijn Overeem (+111) vs. Chad Griggs (-122)

Preliminary Card (HDNet, 8 p.m. ET)
Gesias Cavalcante (-115) vs. Justin Wilcox (+110)
Conor Heun (+120) vs. Magno Almeida (-130)
Nah-Shon Burrell (+275) vs. Joe Ray (-313)
Todd Moore (+260) vs. Mike Bronzoulis (-280)
Brian Melancon (-115) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (+105)

The Main Event: Look, I hug Ubereem’s nuts as much as the next dude. I’m just saying, Werdum was a +430 underdog against Fedor Emelianenko, and he managed to end that fight in 69 seconds. (He was also good enough to submit Overeem five years ago, if that means anything to you.) Most likely, Overeem will be able keep the fight standing and have his way with Werdum — but there’s always the chance that Fabricio could catch the jacked Dutchman. And since he’d triple your investment, it’s worth a modest bet.

The Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them, actually — this is definitely a card that encourages risk. Besides the main event, you have Jeff Monson as a more-than-3-to-1 underdog against Daniel Cormier. Cormier is undefeated, and always impressive in his fights, but he’s a baby in the sport, and he’s never faced anybody even remotely close to Monson’s level of skill and experience. (Stupid fact: In the Snowman’s 53-fight career, he’s earned the same number of wins via north/south choke [7] as Cormier has total fights on his record.) The line is a little inflated, is what I’m saying.

Similarly, the well-traveled Valentijn Overeem is a slight underdog against rising prospect Chad Griggs, when I’d put Alistair’s bro as a slight favorite. But the opposite is true in Cavalcante vs. Wilcox. Despite JZ’s previous history of top-ten-ranked excellence, he’s really struggled to make an impact in the last three years, while Wilcox has been on a tear. Cash on the Silverback could pay off.

Keep Away: Josh Barnett as a 3-1 fave over Brett Rogers sounds about right to me; there’s not enough edge for a straight bet, so save him for the parlay. I also think KJ Noons makes sense as a solid favorite over Jorge Masvidal, but I’d like to see how Noons looks back at lightweight for at least one fight before I start putting money on him.

The Guy You’ve Never Heard Of: Magno Almeida is a 9-1 submission ace who has ended seven of his fights in the first round. Due to injuries and bad matchups, his opponent Conor Heun hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, and hasn’t been inside the cage since losing a decision to KJ Noons last June. Give the new kid a shot.

Official CagePotato Parlay #1 (novice): $10 on A. Overeem + Barnett + Wilcox + Almeida returns a $46.48 profit at BetUS.

Official CagePotato Parlay #2 (advanced): $10 on Werdum + Barnett + V. Overeem + Monson + Noons returns a $589.63 profit.

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Pen Fifteen- June 17, 2011 at 11:42 am
Off-topic comment: any northside Chicagoans know a good place to watch Strikeforce? I don't have Showtime, and I'd prefer to avoid my shithole neighborhood BWW (I mean, what kind of restaurant that specializes in fried food puts down carpet?).
KidDinomite- June 17, 2011 at 11:36 am
The Reem over Werdum by first round KO via uberknee. Don't bet on this fight, it's a waste of money with little to no return...
RSparrow- June 17, 2011 at 10:29 am
My friend Mike Bronzoulis is a beast, just reminding you guys. This will be his debut, his opponent Todd Moore is from Houston also, and they hate each other. Big time rivalry, should be a barnburner! Mike's 12-2, and is gonna make a run at everyone at WW, get ready.
Rear Naked Poke- June 17, 2011 at 9:48 am
Werdum wins, and Masdival win, if you place those guys in a parlay you're return is much greater.
Eyes red as Fedor- June 17, 2011 at 9:32 am
How many times can you say Chad Griggs fast before it just turns into a growl?
LOKI- June 17, 2011 at 9:15 am
@mmacanada-Fedor and Silva arent legit MMA strikers? At the very least Werdum is cagey enough to make it to the second round and it aint easy to oxygenate 265+lbs of horsebeef for more than 5 minutes.
Kid Clam Curtains- June 17, 2011 at 8:56 am
Put your money on Masvidal.
mmacanada- June 17, 2011 at 8:34 am
I like werdum but on a tear since leaving Ufc? Come on he hasn't faced a legit heavyweight striker since Jds and look what happened then. Now he's fighting ubereem. I feel bad for the fucking guy. The voice will be saying good night Irene, I can hear it now.
PERPATRAITOR- June 17, 2011 at 8:31 am
I think that Miami hustle about gamebred not training was a bit of a joke.
Gladheateher- June 17, 2011 at 8:17 am
@Pen FIFteen Dont forget Mike Kyle got called up to fight Silva on short notice and nearly won vis TKO.

We should expect the brothers Overreem to win this night.
"MMA journalists" those especially on yahoo and SI are gonna be served up a big fuck you, while trying to remove feet from their mouths.
I cant wait to see Griggs vs Valentjin, should be an all out war.
Noons is also going to beat Masvidal.
That guy's game is weak. He's not the athlete everyone thought he was. His training regiment is worse than Q RJackson's.
And he prolly bet that he could beat Noons without training b/c hes a degenerate gambling junkie.
knucklesamitch- June 17, 2011 at 8:07 am
@Pen Fifteen,

He's going to let Overeem knock the shit out of him and then he when he goes in for the kill he's going to rip his arm off.

**No, I don't actually think this will happen, this fight will not look much different than the Duffee or Rogers fight for Overeem
Pen Fifteen- June 17, 2011 at 7:45 am
Nobody respects Werdumb because he still is the most one-dimensional fighter in the top 10. Since losing to JDS, he has beaten a natural LHW in Mike Kyle, won a lackluster decision over Bigfoot, and snagged a submission with the equivalent of pulling guard. I mean, the guy can't even wrestle worth a shit either, so how is he going to get Overeem to the one place he has a chance to win the fight? Every fight starts standing, and a K1 world champion is not the guy you want to be standing across from when you are standing up.
LOKI- June 17, 2011 at 7:28 am
I also dont understand why nobody hispect Werdum. A year ago he was the belle of the ball but since his buddy the Moai swole Fedor's face up, mothafuckas act like they forgot about the Vai Cavalo!
I like Overeem, I really do he is a great fighter and has really turned his career around as a HW. However Werdum is durrible and since the Dos Santos fight, has apparently been born again hard so I will take Go-Horse over Horse meat by making it to an oxygen sapping second or even third round...full stop. A buddy of mine rolled with Monson a few months back and was supprised by how strong he wasnt, he is no real threat to anyone with a Y chromasome on the feet and I gotta believe Cormier has the Sub wearwithal to stay outa trouble long enough for a LnP UD. Noons by KO/TKO. For some reason I see Rogers takin it to Barnett who has been outa action for a while and has never been a fan of gettin hit in the face.
I am allergic to math; what does a $10 Werdum-Cormier-Noons-Rogers parlay yield me?
DangadaDang- June 17, 2011 at 7:22 am
I love these articles. I'd definitely put money down on Monson, and the V. Overeem line is tempting too.
RwilsonR- June 17, 2011 at 7:22 am
Despite your advice I just can bet on a guy named Mango.
What's that you say? His name is actually Magno? Well, I read it as Mango, and will still not put money his way.
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