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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Affliction’s Day of Reckoning


(Think of it this way: if Gilbert asked to "borrow" money, would you consider that a good idea?  It’s the same with betting on him.)

Just in case picking the winners in our official Affliction Pick-em Contest isn’t enough action for you (after all, you don’t stand to lose anything except time and self-respect), you can also wager actual money on the proceedings thanks to the internet and the wonder of off-shore gambling.  Here are the best betting lines on the World Wide Web, thanks to BestFightOdds.com:

Fedor Emelianenko (-350) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+336)
Josh Barnett (-500) vs. Gilbert Yvel (+491)
Vitor Belfort (+160) vs. Matt Lindland (-160)
Renato Sobral (-155) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+125)
Chris Horodecki (-220) vs. Dan Lauzon (+180)
Paul Buentello (-200) vs. Kiril Sidellnikov (+160)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-110) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-120)
Jay Hieron (-275) vs. Jason High (+215)
Bao Quach (+160) vs. L.C. Davis (-200)
Albert Rios (+195) vs. Antonio Duarte (-245)
Brett Cooper (-200) vs. Patrick Speight (+160)

Thoughts…

- It’s tempting to take the long odds on Arlovski.  I mean, Freddie Roach says he’s a great boxer and isn’t at all worried about Fedor’s armbars (or whatever they’re called), and you’ve been watching those hype videos for weeks now with Arlovski’s entourage calling him everything but the son of God, so he sounds like he’s worth the risk, right?  Maybe, but ask yourself this: when was the last time it proved to be a good idea to bet against Fedor?  Then imagine what an asshole you’ll feel like when he wins and that outcome seems obvious in retrospect.  Throw ten bucks down if you must, but consider it gone as soon you do.

- Absolutely don’t bet on Gilbert Yvel.  The only way he wins this is if Barnett is dumb enough to stand with him the entire fight, and Barnett isn’t known as a foolish man.  Yvel’s too one-dimensional and hasn’t fought anyone of Barnett’s caliber in a long time, if ever.  Put it out of your mind.

So who should you bet on?  Thought you’d never ask:

- I like Vladimir Matyushenko over Little Nog.  Vladdy will grind out a win, probably via decision, and it may not be a thriller but it is as close to a sure thing as you’ll get with odds that are still beneficial.  

- I also like Vitor Belfort to beat Matt Lindland, despite being the slight underdog.  “The Law” just isn’t as explosive as he used to be.  He looked slow and sloppy against Fabio Nascimento, while Belfort looked sharper than he has in years against Terry Martin.  As long as he’s drilled his takedown defense to the point where he sprawls in his sleep, Belfort should take this one.

- Lastly, put me down for Renato “Babalu” Sobral over Sokoudjou.  My guess is Sokoudjou will come out like an ornery bull, then run out of steam and confidence when Sobral doesn’t up and quit in the first three minutes.

Cagepotato Comments

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aweirdpoet- January 22, 2009 at 12:12 am
Never bet against LC Davis.
dogmaticdiscordian- January 21, 2009 at 11:11 pm
I'd consider Sidelnikov over Buentello, he trains with Fedor after all.
Anonymous- January 21, 2009 at 12:44 pm
the yvel barnett line scares me.

well the line doesn't but barnett's prefight comments do, saying that he is going to stand with yvel, i don't follow barnett that closely to know what kind of mind games hes playing, but he may see this as an opportunity to test how far his stand up game has evolved, and im not a fan of that at those odds.

i can't believe the fedor odds are that low, roy nelson took arlovski down and arlovski as usual looked like a dead fish on his back, i think fedor can get into the body lock with arlovski and take him down, and secure a submission or a GNP victory.

the babalu/ sokodju fight is scary as well.

we all know what sokoduju will do, stand flat footed in front of you and throw power strikes, like a cro cop. babalu did not look impressive against southworth, in neither his stand up nor his wrestling. and his penchant to stand in front of people and strike when he shouldnt has me scared.
Darwin- January 21, 2009 at 12:25 pm
war Barny
greenseed- January 21, 2009 at 11:58 am
justin.tv should have a few online streams

thats where i watched ufc 93

sometimes they shut channels down but affliction is stupid and wont
bpd- January 21, 2009 at 11:55 am
I question anyone's judgment if they bet against L.C. Davis. I know that Rafael Dias wouldn't.
gesus- January 21, 2009 at 11:53 am
wow i'm kind of suprised at the odds of the barnett/yvel fight!
Sodak- January 21, 2009 at 11:52 am
barnett might stand with Yvel its a good bet with those odds.
Goat- January 21, 2009 at 11:51 am
I suggest betting the house on Kiril Sidellnikov.

Buentello is not a good hw - I see Kiril tkoing him in the first

C'mon CP - you know you agree
DDT- January 21, 2009 at 11:47 am
How are they both favored ?

This is basically a toss up. If it were -110 / +110 the house could not make any money.

Normally it would be -110/-110 which is what the odds are when you take the points in say football. The extra -010 just give the house a little extra.

They are not both the favorite Vladamir is the favorite as his odds are worse.
WANG CHUNG FIGHTER - January 21, 2009 at 11:46 am
That sucks that I will miss this PPV but I'm heading over to a show to support some local fighters from my gym. I hope that AA takes it via BRUTAL KO.
jiujitson- January 21, 2009 at 11:45 am
Is it me or did I see Gilbert Yvel on that show Gangland.....no no it must of been somebody else. FEDOR FOR CZAR!!!!!!!!!
agentsmith- January 21, 2009 at 11:43 am
At last the age old question will be answered: can a guy who looks like a vintage GI Joe doll beat up a guy who looks like a plumber?
Massara- January 21, 2009 at 11:42 am
By the way ... anyone know of a good place online for a free live stream? Typically I'd buy, but the PPVs are piling up this month...
Massara- January 21, 2009 at 11:41 am
Yeah I see the Lindland-Vitor line self-correcting ... didn't notice the Nog.-Matyushenko line, but those odds aren't that uncommon. For example, most times to bet the spread on a football game, the odds will be -110 or -120 on either side so if you bet $10 you win about $9 either way ... It's not that both are favored, it's just that they're getting such an equal amount of action on both guys that they don't make either a dog hoping to avoid a big payout.
Chad- January 21, 2009 at 11:38 am
I feel your pain Massara. This will be my 3rd PPV this month...

Oh well it's quality money spent. Hopefully I can redeem some of the money through betting.
agentsmith- January 21, 2009 at 11:38 am
The nostrils truly are the windows to the soul.
DDT- January 21, 2009 at 11:37 am
Yvel actually seemed like a really nice guy on Inside MMA.
durrrrrr- January 21, 2009 at 11:20 am
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-110) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-120)


How are they both favored ? Not really the betting kind so if its simple feel free to /point and laugh
JD- January 21, 2009 at 11:17 am
Hard to put money on Yvel when Barnett can get a kimura whenever he wants to. You have to be nuts to be putting money on Yvel. Its not hard to take Yvel down and the fight is over pretty much as soon as it hits the mat.

Your basically counting on a spectacular KO from a fighter that looks to be mailing it in most of the time.

Jeffro- January 21, 2009 at 11:16 am
Massara- I bet that Vitor-Lindland will be even money by fight night.
Massara- January 21, 2009 at 11:10 am
sportsbook.com is taking bets on a few of the fights (F-AA, JB-GY, ML-VB, BS-RS) but not the whole card last I checked ...

I actually like R.Soko. and don't mind putting money on Yvel at those odds. Also, I'm surprised Vitor-Lindland isn't even money.
BuckWild- January 21, 2009 at 11:08 am
Where can you place a bet if you don't live in Nevada?
Chad- January 21, 2009 at 11:06 am
betus.com or bodoglife.com

Personally I use betus.com
CJ- January 21, 2009 at 10:58 am
Yvel is one scary looking dude.
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