Gambling Addiction Enabler: Dream.10

(Try as he might, the referee could not focus on the fight as long as he was haunted by his dying mother's wish that he do whatever he wanted with his life, as long as it did not bring upon his family the shame of the bow tie.)

The finals of Dream’s welterweight tournament goes down in Japan on Monday, and if there’s anything we’ve learned over the years it’s that betting on Japanese MMA is like buying heroin in a strange neighborhood.  You never know for sure what you’re getting, or whether it’s even halfway legitimate, but damn if it isn’t a rush.  Dream.10 betting odds come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Shinya Aoki (-200) vs. Vitor Ribeiro (+175)
Hayato Sakurai (-600) vs. Marius Zaromskis (+475)
Andre Galvao (-360) vs. Jason High (+300)
Melvin Manhoef (+105) vs. Paulo Filho (-130)
Andre Amade (+145) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (-160)
Dong Sik Yoon (-225) vs. Jesse Taylor (+190)
Seichi Ikemoto (-150) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (+125)

Our thoughts…

- Aoki should handle Ribeiro without too much trouble, and while it should be an entertaining fight it’s also one-sided enough to merit the 2-1 odds in favor of The Man in Tights.  We’ll save it for the parlay.

- Sakurai is the favorite to win this tournament, and for good reason.  Look around.  You think Jason High is come from out of nowhere and take this thing?  Not likely.  Fortunately you can get better odds on Sakurai most places if you bet on him to win the whole tournament.  The line on him against Zaromskis will prevent you from making any money, but he’s 2/3 to win the tourney, and that’s about as safe a bet as you can hope for in one of these things.  The Bet: $20 on Sakurai to become the Dream Welterweight Tournament Champ.

- I won’t pretend I don’t know why Paulo Filho’s crazy ass is a slight favorite over Manhoef.  He’s got a ground game, while Manhoef has none.  But what he’s also got is a gigantic question mark on him (as well as some bizarre tattoos).  He’s fresh out of rehab, hasn’t fought since losing that strange WEC fight to Chael Sonnen, and seems as likely to be found running naked through the streets as he is to show up focused and ready to fight.  Because of that, I’m taking Manhoef.  Maybe all he can do is strike, but he can do it without being batshit insane or, at the very least, incredibly rusty, and that’s something. The Bet: $20 on Manhoef.

- It’s tempting to put a little money down on Jesse “Mongo” Taylor, in the same way that it’s tempting to jump off your roof just to see if your ankles will break or not.  He’s exactly the kind of boring wrestler who might cause problems for a judoka like Yoon, and he seems too dumb to realize that he should rightfully lose this fight.  That said, I can’t feel good about myself if I bet on “JT Money.”  A man has to have some principles.

- Official Cage Potato Parlay: Aoki + Sakurai + Amade + Ikemoto.