If betting odds are any indication of how competitive MMA bouts will turn out to be, expect a lot of one-sided blowouts on Elite XC’s CBS offering this Saturday night. Not that it’s any surprise, really. In fact, with five fights crammed into a two-hour time slot CBS is going to need some quick beatdowns if they don’t want to run way over and have to cut into precious local news time. In any event, Best Fight Odds supplies the most gambler-friendly betting lines for ‘Elite XC: Heat,’ and they break down like this:
Kimbo Slice (-325) vs. Ken Shamrock (+329)
Jake Shields (-550) vs. Paul Daley (+524)
Gina Carano (-550) vs. Kelly Kobald (+525)
Ninja Rua (-196) vs. Benji Radach (+210)
Andrei Arlovski (-428) vs. Roy Nelson (+385)
‘I Can’t Believe It’s So Close!’: the line on Radach-Rua seems at first like it’s worth taking a chance on “Razor”, but then there’s that stuff about him not training until five weeks ago. That ought to be enough to scare you away from a bet on Radach. If it’s really true that he had ballooned up to 230 pounds after suffering through more injuries and not hitting the gym, it’s surprising that the line isn’t more lopsided in Rua’s favor. Radach hasn’t fought in over nine months. Five weeks isn’t going to erase that kind of ring rust.
Best Place for That Money You Don’t Want Anymore: So you’re looking at these odds and you can’t help but wonder if that +525 on Kelly Kobald isn’t your key to beating this whole economic crisis thing. You’re saying to yourself, ‘Gina Carano can’t even make weight, plus she’s got all these media obligations. She’s totally overrated and I’m the only one who sees it!’ All right, wise guy. Go ahead and put a bet on Kobald. Then when she gets in the cage and you see why she’s 0-2 in her last two fights maybe you’ll remember that this is Elite XC, where only two fighters matter: Gina and Kimbo. And neither of them gets a fight that isn’t served up on a silver platter.
Underdog Most Likely to Turn a Profit: Of the underdogs on this card, Radach still has the best chance of actually winning, but the long shot you might actually make serious money on is Roy Nelson. Now, I know some in the Potato Nation think this is a walk-through for Arlovski, but it’s not. If Nelson plays to his strengths (submission grappling) and avoids Andrei’s (knocking suckas out), he could pull off the upset. It’s still far from being likely, but that’s why they call it gambling, you wuss. If you need another reason to believe in a “Big Country” win, how about the fact that Affliction is admittedly banking on this as an opportunity to “showcase Arlovski.” If the screwy MMA world has taught us anything, it’s that saying something like that before a fight is the best way to make sure it doesn’t happen.