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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Elite XC ‘Heat’

(What, no odds on whether Gina will make weight?)

If betting odds are any indication of how competitive MMA bouts will turn out to be, expect a lot of one-sided blowouts on Elite XC’s CBS offering this Saturday night. Not that it’s any surprise, really. In fact, with five fights crammed into a two-hour time slot CBS is going to need some quick beatdowns if they don’t want to run way over and have to cut into precious local news time. In any event, Best Fight Odds supplies the most gambler-friendly betting lines for ‘Elite XC: Heat,’ and they break down like this:

Kimbo Slice (-325) vs. Ken Shamrock (+329)
Jake Shields (-550) vs. Paul Daley (+524)
Gina Carano (-550) vs. Kelly Kobald (+525)
Ninja Rua (-196) vs. Benji Radach (+210)
Andrei Arlovski (-428) vs. Roy Nelson (+385)

Some thoughts…

‘I Can’t Believe It’s So Close!’: the line on Radach-Rua seems at first like it’s worth taking a chance on “Razor”, but then there’s that stuff about him not training until five weeks ago. That ought to be enough to scare you away from a bet on Radach. If it’s really true that he had ballooned up to 230 pounds after suffering through more injuries and not hitting the gym, it’s surprising that the line isn’t more lopsided in Rua’s favor. Radach hasn’t fought in over nine months. Five weeks isn’t going to erase that kind of ring rust.

Best Place for That Money You Don’t Want Anymore: So you’re looking at these odds and you can’t help but wonder if that +525 on Kelly Kobald isn’t your key to beating this whole economic crisis thing. You’re saying to yourself, ‘Gina Carano can’t even make weight, plus she’s got all these media obligations. She’s totally overrated and I’m the only one who sees it!’ All right, wise guy. Go ahead and put a bet on Kobald. Then when she gets in the cage and you see why she’s 0-2 in her last two fights maybe you’ll remember that this is Elite XC, where only two fighters matter: Gina and Kimbo. And neither of them gets a fight that isn’t served up on a silver platter.

Underdog Most Likely to Turn a Profit: Of the underdogs on this card, Radach still has the best chance of actually winning, but the long shot you might actually make serious money on is Roy Nelson. Now, I know some in the Potato Nation think this is a walk-through for Arlovski, but it’s not. If Nelson plays to his strengths (submission grappling) and avoids Andrei’s (knocking suckas out), he could pull off the upset. It’s still far from being likely, but that’s why they call it gambling, you wuss. If you need another reason to believe in a “Big Country” win, how about the fact that Affliction is admittedly banking on this as an opportunity to “showcase Arlovski.” If the screwy MMA world has taught us anything, it’s that saying something like that before a fight is the best way to make sure it doesn’t happen.

Cagepotato Comments

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Nobama- October 1, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Dandeman said:

"Okay its a -500 on Gina not making weight. So I bet that her fat melts away and then I make money?? Talk about heavy odds."

I think you've misunderstood. The -500 on Gina means she is HEAVILY favored to walk through Kobald with no problem.
KG- October 1, 2008 at 4:48 pm
I hear Gina's secret is she drinks a shit load of semen from the cock of 20 men the night before she fights.
Carl James- October 1, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Nelson holds a submission win over Frank Mir in a grappling contest, so yes I do think he has the skills to sub Arlovski who doesn't even seem to train the ground game anymore. Why all the hate for Roy because he has a gut? Does a six pack win the fight for you, or is everyone just in love with watching ripped guys with shaved chests?
dandeman- October 1, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Okay its a -500 on Gina not making weight. So I bet that her fat melts away and then I make money?? Talk about heavy odds.
Nobama- October 1, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Anonymous spouts off the liberal talking points for us all. The government, led by Democrat initiatives, put pressure on the banks and institutions to lend money to people who they knew could never pay it back. The institutions were more than happy to do so, having the explicit promissory note from the government (and the taxpayers, who do whatever the hell the govmt says) that the lenders would be bailed out when things went south.

Barney Frank, Democrat in 2003, responding to Republican and Administration calls to further regulate the "Macs" said this:
"'These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''

The recklessness of government is a primary culprit here. For years, Congress has been pushing banks to make risky, subprime loans. Using the authority of the Community Reinvestment Act, the big push for subprime mortgages began in earnest during the Clinton years. Banks that didn't play ball were subject to serious fines and lawsuits, and regulatory obstacles were placed in their way. While expanding access to the American Dream is a worthy goal, by blindly pursuing that goal and allowing the end to justify any means, we put millions of Americans at financial risk.

Try doing your own research instead of getting your talking points from the Daily KOS. The democrat socialists who got you into this mess in the first place are in full damage control mode, and we're about to elect one of them to lead our country. God help us.
Me- October 1, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Anon - The reason I didn't mention any of that is because it is far more complex an issue and I am a fan of general deregulation. Obviously there are many things about our system that need regulation to keep people honest but it would be hard to determine what would be more harmful than helpful without actually doing it. It is quite clear that we were a little too free with our trading practices pertaining to a global economy. If kept local the market could have easily worked itself out.

I was just pointing out the common sense shit like not giving loans to people who can't afford it. We haven't even seen the Alt-A loans giving up the ghost yet, those should be hitting us some time soon. It's gonna get a whole lot worse before it gets any better. Btw I do not like McCain all that much, just to be clear.
MMA Bush fan- October 1, 2008 at 1:13 pm
This will be the last time Kimbo is given a walk. The winner of the Bush/Rogers or Bush/Thompson will fight Kimbo. With that in mind, Kimbo will either fight Bush or Rogers for his next fight. neither are walks.
norremo- October 1, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Another piece of crap card with uneven matchups all up and down the card. This is not competition in a sport, it's a freak show. Lead by head freak Bimbo Spice and his cock gobbling assistant Gary "prego" Shaw
LukeTheDuke- October 1, 2008 at 11:21 am
Arlovski is better standing up and on the ground, you gotta be kidding me that nelson has better submission skills then the sambo champion in arlovski
Anonymous- October 1, 2008 at 8:16 am
Me - FYI, the current crisis is a result of the deregulation that took place under Reagan and subsequent administrations since the early 1980s. Deregulation of financial markets led to practices like short-selling, the rapid growth of currency trading, and the invention of new, highly complex financial instruments. Deregulation in the housing market was what allowed so many bad mortgages to be sold. And deregulation in the domestic banking and insurance sector was what allowed so many bad loans to be distributed.

All of that produced a temporary economic boom - but now the unsustainability of it all is coming back to bite us on the ass.
I Know Nothing- October 1, 2008 at 5:08 am
When did this become CNN???
Me- October 1, 2008 at 4:33 am
Oh and John McWhatever, Obama voted with the dems 97% of the time... that is when he didn't cop out and vote "present". So who is more of the same? You do know while both parties can be blamed for the economic problem, the dems originated the mortgage crisis by forcing financial institutions to give loans to high risk applicants under the guise of "affordable housing", because not giving would just not be fair.
Fucking idiots.
Me- October 1, 2008 at 4:26 am
No other place to post it, but here will work for the time stamp. I'm calling out these boxing coaches! Anyone catch the line from "Stankie"? same line that Ibarra spewed out during that recent interview. Look out TUF household! Beware team Nog!
Ximo- October 1, 2008 at 4:02 am
I think Gina gets her energy from Ximo ~

walrus- October 1, 2008 at 3:43 am
come ooooonnnnnn Big Country!
Free MMA- October 1, 2008 at 3:31 am
JINX "Big Country" has a even better chance now. Thanks Affliction
Sodak- October 1, 2008 at 3:10 am
Yeah fat dudes actually a jiu jitsu coach down in vegas, plus 525 is tempting don't know much about Daly is he horrible on the ground?
Really Really?- October 1, 2008 at 2:38 am
Roy Nelson's strength is submission grappling? Thats news to me.
Apexified- October 1, 2008 at 2:26 am
The nice thing about them handing their star fighters these "cakewalk" opponents is how hilarious it will be when one of them actually manages to win. I won't lay any bets on Ken, but how badass would that be if he knocked out Kimbo? Or if "fatty" Nelson made Arlovski tap... I see Kobald rushing Gina and catching some knees and elbows, but if all three of the big fights went to the underdogs, that would be worth more than a UFC PPV.
redditnoob- October 1, 2008 at 1:48 am
Wow, only -330 for Kimbo here? It seems like you can make money on average if you think he has an 80% chance to be Ken. Does anyone think Shamrock has a legitimate 1 in 5 chance to win? (Especially given possible dubious judging and reffing.)
John McSame- October 1, 2008 at 1:34 am
(va)Gina is worth more unscathed. no offense, but kobald ain't exactly something you put on your promotional materials and market to menfolk.
lastemperor85- October 1, 2008 at 1:26 am
what I meant to finish with, was that Elite XC can protect Gina for only so long
lastemperor85- October 1, 2008 at 1:24 am
Yes, Kobald is 0-2 in her last two fights, but she is also bringing in a record of 16-2. Her fight against Kedzie... ehh I don't know about, but her I was front row for her fight against Tara Larosa, and it was incredible. By far it was the fight of the night on that Bodogfight card. So for me my bet will be on Kelly, Elite XC can only protect her for so long.
John McCain- October 1, 2008 at 1:23 am
gina, kimbo and arlovski get walks because they are how gary shaw eats.

i'm not saying they couldn't beat their opponents fairly, but their faces fill the seats and money has been invested in their careers. the cbs contract is predicated on fighters with name/ face recognition and (va)gina and kimbo provide that. the thompson fight showed how elite will fix things for kimbo. arlovski should provide some realism in that he has skills should he deign to use them and take this fiasco seriously.

Also, I voted with George W. Bush 90% of the time.
Beat- October 1, 2008 at 1:03 am
If there's anything remotely close here, it's the odds on Semtex losing. He has a better shot than Kenny does anyway.