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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Fall 2009


(Lyoto Machida walked into the gym that day just to learn a little jiu-jitsu, but he walked out as a witness to murder.)

With Labor Day weekend upon us we are forced to admit that MMA’s Summer of Weird – the summer that saw us reach new highs with UFC 100 and bizarre new lows with the Affliction: Trilogy cancellation – is over.  Waiting for us in the future is a fall fighting season full of fistic goodness.  But since there’s no significant action until mid-September, we decided to take a look at some of the current betting lines on MMA’s coming attractions.

Naturally, we turn to our friends at BestFightOdds.com for the most profitable lines on some select match-ups:

UFC Fight Night 19: September 16

Melvin Guillard (+215) vs. Nate Diaz (-220)
Gray Maynard (-264) vs. Roger Huerta (+264)

UFC 103: September 19

Rich Franklin (-150) vs. Vitor Belfort (+135)
Frank Trigg (+310) vs. Josh Koscheck (-355)
Junior Dos Santos (-127) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+115)

UFC 104: October 24

Lyoto Machida (-450) vs. “Shogun” Rua (+370)
Ben Rothwell (+215) vs. Cain Velasquez (-240)

UFC 105: November 14

Michael Bisping (+115) vs. Denis Kang (-135)

UFC 106: November 21

Brock Lesnar (-240) vs. Shane Carwin (+240)
Mark Coleman (+295) vs. Tito Ortiz (-365)

Strikeforce: ???

Fedor Emelianenko (-550) vs. Brett Rogers (+425)

So who do we like?

- Vitor Belfort is definitely worth a little action as a slight underdog against Rich Franklin.  “Ace” has looked just aiiight recently, while Belfort might have his old swagger back.  The same can’t be said of another slight underdog on that card, Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.  He wasn’t all that sharp against Mostapha Al-Turk, using an eye-poke/uppercut combo to win the fight, so we agree that the young, hungry Dos Santos might be too much for him to handle. 

- At UFC 104 the oddsmakers have confirmed what we’ve long suspected, and that’s that “Shogun” Rua will be lucky to land a single punch against Lyoto Machida.  But seeing Ben Rothwell as a 2-1 underdog against Cain Velasquez is enough to pique our interest.  Rothwell is a Midwestern boy who trains with the Miletich camp, so his takedown defense is bound to be a little better than Cheick Kongo’s.

- As far as we’re concerned, Bisping vs. Kang is a pick-em.  When he’s at his best, Kang ought to be able to win this nine times out of ten.  But when was the last time he really performed at his best?

- Okay, obviously we feel like Shane Carwin is a good bet at +240 against Brock Lesnar.  He’s got the physical tools and the background to test Lesnar at his own game, and he’s got the punching power to exploit some of Lesnar’s weaknesses on the feet.  We’re taking this one before the online bookies dial it back some.

- Brett Rogers at +425?  Has no one told the oddsmakers about his plan to fake an injury?

Official Cage Potato Long-Term Parlay: Maynard + Belfort + Dos Santos + Machida + Emelianenko.  It might take a while to collect, but you gotta think long when it comes to your investments.

Cagepotato Comments

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ArmFarmer- September 8, 2009 at 1:39 pm
"I also love how some keyboard warrior says a guy is a scrub. If somebody isn't in the top 10 rankings then they are considered a can or a crappy fighter."

When discussing top world class fighters in the top organization in the world.. Josh Haynes is considered a scrub. So is Charles "captain miserable" McCarthy. I'm sorry if that offends you.

"I'd love to see you step in against any of them and see what you can do."

I actually think Josh Haynes is a pretty nice guy so I don't know why you'd wish that on him.
ReDx- September 8, 2009 at 11:27 am
I said some KO power, back to the first comment. I said he at least has some, to say he has none would be asinine. I never said he was a KO artist. Most of what I was talking about wasn't directed at this topic, in other threads everybody says the same thing over and over about Bisping, thats what I was talking about.

I also love how some keyboard warrior says a guy is a scrub. If somebody isn't in the top 10 rankings then they are considered a can or a crappy fighter. I'd love to see you step in against any of them and see what you can do.
superflat- September 8, 2009 at 8:46 am
Eh, I like The Grim at those odds. The Grim comes for everyone, eventually... or something. I'll work out a good catch phrase on the way to the bank.
ArmFarmer- September 8, 2009 at 8:37 am
wtf are you talking about? No wonder I totally missed what you were trying to say.. cause I sure can't tell form that last post...

Seriously you just said that people on here work like robots, having nothing intelligent to say, and talk about the same crap 1,000 times over.. and then proceed to regurgitate a bunch of irrelevant topics that have been talked about 1,000 times over. What the fuck does anything you just said have to do with anything.. and then you close with "time to grow some brains people start focusing your attention on some of the other hundreds of fighters out there".

Sorry buddy, but this article was about a handful of fighters and bisping is one of them and that's what we were talking about. Why would we have a random discussion about hundreds of other fighters. You like to talk down to people and act like you somehow have superior logic yet you make absolutely no sense.

and no dude.. I didn't miss what you were trying to say. You were trying to say Bisping has a lot of tko wins so he must have ko power. I said he tko'd a bunch of scrubs so he doesn't have ko power. The guy has only ONE ko on his record from like 5 years ago. Pounding on guys like Josh Haynes and Charles McCarthy until the ref stops you and gives you the tko is NOT ko power, it's overwhelming a scrub fighter and having the ref step in to stop the mismatch. If anyhting it further proves that he DOESN'T have ko power because if he did he wouldn't need to land a million strikes on some shitty fighter to put him down.
ArmFarmer- September 8, 2009 at 8:10 am
Your words:
"To say that somebody has no KO power would be Big Nog who has only stopped 2 people out of 32 wins by KO."

Bisping has 1 KO in 17 wins.. so that's pretty much the same ratio.

Another example of your brilliant logic.
ReDx- September 8, 2009 at 7:40 am
If you knocked out 10 gradschool girls then I'd say you have some knockout power, if you couldn't even knock out a girl then you'd have no KO power. If the guy can't even knock out an easy opponent then its safe to say he has no KO power.

You totally missed what I was trying to say, I'm betting you skimmed it then got all excited that you thought you could make a half assed witty remark to look cool.

And no, I'm not sticking up for Bisping, but the people on here work like robots. They have nothing intelligent to say so the only time they contribute is to say something that we've already talked about 1,000,000 times. Yes, we all know Bisping lost the fight to Hamill, he got lucky. That fight happened 2 years ago, its time to let it die. No he didn't win the fight because it was in England. We all know that he used a stick and run against Leben yet every body says that's how he fought every single fight. Time to grow some brains people or start focusing your attention on some of the hundreds of other fighters out there.
ArmFarmer- September 8, 2009 at 6:47 am
@ReDx

If I fought 10 gradschool girls and finished 9 of them with a tko, that wouldn't mean I have a good shot at tkoing Kang. Bisping has fought like 3 legitimate fighters in his entire career and barely beat 1 of them. Bisping has been fed scrubs his entire career but those days are ending, Bisping is going to get exposed every time he fights someone good.

Anyone who hasn't seen it.. go to youtube and type in "bispings island" it is fucking hilarious.
clutchy hopkins- September 8, 2009 at 5:37 am
hahaha you would never bet money on fedor there ufc fan? seems kind of stupid considering oh, i dunno.. hes never lost. whether you like the fact that he doesnt wanna fight for big daddy ufc or not, hes obviously been a good bet for the last 30 times or whatever his record is. dont be so ignorant
Mike Milbury- September 8, 2009 at 4:49 am
Seriously, Nate Diaz needs to put on some muscle if he ever wants to get off these FN cards and/or achieve the notoriety of his brother. Being skinny and lanky, he always gets bullied around by the stronger LWs.
WuTangClan- September 7, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Sticking up for Bisping ReDx?

You obviously do not enjoy the company of women.
ReDx- September 7, 2009 at 6:40 pm
LOL stringrza, Bisping may not have great KO power but to say he has none is asinine. He's got 9 wins by T(KO) excluding 2 that weren't direct stops. 9 out of 17 isn't a bad percentage. To say that somebody has no KO power would be Big Nog who has only stopped 2 people out of 32 wins by KO.
UFC fan- September 7, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Nate Diaz ain't no great up and coming fighter, he is not even close to being his brother, IF Melvin comes in not on crank or some stupid shit he could stomp a mud-hole in Nates skinny ass and walk it dry.

Gray Maynard being THAT huge an at odds fav is insane, If Huerta comes in shape, I don't see Maynard getting a win.

I agree with the odds-makers up to 106:
I think Shane Carwin is going to shut a bunch of mouths, one of em will be Brocks, the rest will be his ballsucking fans.

lastly strikeforce...I don't care who is fighting FADOOR I won't ever put money on him, so heres hoping Brett Rodgers takes him down and does what cock chestner did to Mir.
One Two- September 7, 2009 at 3:35 pm
@ Sideburnz yeah I saw him take out Werdum but cro cop is the guy Werdum went too, to train him to strike, big jump in striking skills there.
Koeikan- September 7, 2009 at 1:13 pm
Just to clarify, I'm not picking Coleman to win... Just saying it's possible (in response to "No way Tito loses to Coleman").
LAS- September 7, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Seeing people's picks here, it's no wonder online casinos stay in business. Putting Frank Trigg in a parlay? Why not just bet him stand alone, where it would pay out 3.5 to one?

And the Coleman-Ortiz line seems well set given that Coleman is 10 years older than Ortiz, and outside of one fight in his 25 fight career, has never shown appreciable use of strategy or conditioning.
Koeikan- September 7, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Huerta is being thrown to Gray as punishment to Huerta, not a reward for Gray. I'm sure Dana doesn't like the fact that the UFC was promoting the shit out of Huerta and then he pulled the "UFC doesn't pay well enough" and the "I want to be an actor" stuff.

I'm sure they tailor picked Gray as a bad matchup for Huerta (a la Tito's last fight against Machida). Gray should be able to smother Huerta all night.

Tito could definitely lose to Coleman. He says he's 100%, but how many times have we heard that only to have him use his back, etc as an excuse after he loses? Coleman has a better wrestling pedigree and he'd never been through a *real* training camp before the Bonnar fight. Why couldn't Coleman use the same tactics as Randy did when he beat Ortiz (assuming he has the gas tank, which he should now)? Also, ring rust could absolutely be a factor.

Rogers could hurt Fedor, but more trouble than he's ever been in? Fedor has been in some pretty deep shit before (Kimura from Hunt, Suplex from Randlemen, rocked on his feet against Fujita after eating a huge right hand, etc).

Koeikan- September 7, 2009 at 12:35 pm
I kinda disagree with the assessment on Franklin. Not saying I don't think a bet on Belfort is a bad idea...but I think Franklin's looked pretty good lately against some tough competition.

So he lost to Silva...everyone does. He came back and crushed Jason MacDonald, convincingly decisioned Okami, then lost to Silva again (see aforementioned). Then he had back to back TKO stoppages against Lutter/Hammill. He had a split decision loss againt Hendo...Which is nothing to be ashamed against (Hendo is a tough match up for anyone) and he looked better as the fight went on (I think he would have won if it went 5 rounds)... Finally, he was able to pick apart Wanderlei and was never really in any danger.

I dunno... 30 fights and he's only lost to Silva and Machida and a split decision loss to Hendo.

Of course, I also train at AMC, so I'm biased...but nevertheless, I think the points are valid.
LargeMidget- September 7, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Huerta's being thrown in there to give Gray Maynard another win over named competition. Long stints away from the cage never bode well for fighters and Roger's has been pretty long. Maynard can take a decision here easilly.

No way Tito loses to Coleman. Bonnar practically let Coleman win because he felt for the old guy I think. Tito's gonna smash him.

And that's all I'm really sure of. I have a hunch that Rogers is going to hurt Fedor badly and Fedor will be in more trouble than he's ever been in a fight, but that Fedor will win anyways.
stingrza- September 7, 2009 at 12:13 pm
The thing with Kang is, when he loses his head and sabotages himself, it's by submission. He'll allow himself to get caught in dumb subs. Bisping doesn't have any subs. And he also doesn't have any KO power. So Kang, theoretically, should be in good shape here...
RJeezy- September 7, 2009 at 11:46 am
Vitor + Cro Cop + Cole Miller (+135, 103) + Franca (+225, 103) + Stun Gun (+110, 105)

Gonna be nice to be able to afford heat this winter
Dojima- September 7, 2009 at 11:29 am
@backbaconbilly

predictions are good, but I disagree on the fedor part... GSP lost when he was relatively young and still developing his skill set. Fedor on the other hand is an old dog and we all the know the rest of that aphorism. A loss would relatively shatter his legacy and leave him no time in his waning twilight years to regain the old glory.. aside from that, Fedor does need to lose because IMO his time has passed and not signing with the UFC does show that he isnt concerned with getting in the ring with the best fighters in the world - just the best fighters for M-1 Global.
SiDeBuRnZ- September 7, 2009 at 11:13 am
@ One Two

Did you not see how Dos Santos made the last guy's ears wiggle?!?!
BackbaconBilly- September 7, 2009 at 11:08 am
My Potato predictions...

Diaz
Maynard
Belfort ( I believe he will lay the Lynland love tap on Ace's ass )
Koscheck ( needs a win badly )
JDS ( Hope he gets rid of crocop for good )
Machida
Cain ( He's too hungry to lose to Big Ben )
Kang ( probably wrong here but I still hate the Count )
Lesnar ( picking him feels wrong cause he acts like a huge douche nozzle )
Ortiz ( Tito looks focused, but hey it 's Tito probably to early to tell )
Rogers, not because I like em cause Fedor is the man! but I believe Fedor needs to lose ( just like GSP needed to lose to become an even better fighter ) and Rogers could be the man to do it.
One Two- September 7, 2009 at 10:49 am
Vitor+Cro-cop+Trigg Parlay for me.

Suprised Dos Santos is a favorite hes a little inexperienced he was a waiter started training only 4 years ago. big dude but in a stand up war i gotta give the edge to cro cop.
Homoplata- September 7, 2009 at 10:45 am
Gray Maynard (-264) HAHHAHAHA YOU HAZ ERROR
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