Gambling Addiction Enabler: Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Rogers
(A quick game of rock, scissors, paper to determine who has to sit next to Jerry Millen. Photo courtesy of MixFight.ru.)
If there’s anything the old Gambling Addiction Enabler loves more than placing irresponsible bets on sporting events, it’s placing irresponsible bets on sporting events that are broadcast on network TV. It has an odd way of making you feel less like a degenerate and more like a regular citizen with a crippling addiction. It's like going from drinking malt liquor behind T.J. Maxx to drinking it in a nice, drafty flophouse. You end up sleeping on broken glass either way, but there's something that feels so much classier about indoor broken glass, you know?
The best betting odds on the internet come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Fedor Emelianenko (-495) vs. Brett Rogers (+497)
Jake Shields (-266) vs. “Mayhem” Miller (+236)
Gegard Mousasi (-460) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+393)
Antonio Silva (+156) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-165)
The breakdown…
- A bet on Brett Rogers is really a bet on a) the ability of his right hand to deliver a crushing one-punch knockout against a man who has never been knocked out, and/or b) the hope that his recent marriage, combined with a lack of respect for his opponent’s abilities, will lead to an upset in the cage. There’s just no reason to think, based on what we’ve seen from either man so far, that Rogers should win this fight. You’re basically betting that Fedor will screw-up, Rogers will capitalize on it at exactly the right time, and possibly that God hates M-1 Global and their shenanigans so much that he’ll finally get off his cloud and do something about it. If that’s the bet you want to make, fine. But be honest with yourself.
- As one-sided as it seems on paper, Rogers/Fedor is not the biggest squash match on this card; Mousasi/Sokoudjou is. Sokoudjou hasn’t even looked decent against anyone but Super Hulks lately. He got tooled by Sobral, who in turn got demolished by Mousasi. Normally we don’t endorse the transitive property fallacy in MMA, but this is one time where it holds up. Sokoudjou is in for a beatdown, and the odds aren’t even as tempting on him as the ones on “The Grimm.”
- Shields/Miller and Silva/Werdum are the two more competitive bouts on the televised portion. “Mayhem” does everything pretty well, but he’s not as good at any one thing as Shields is on the ground. He probably has enough grappling acumen to avoid a submission, but he’ll probably be playing defense the whole fight and will end up dropping a decision. Your best underdog bet, however slight, is “Bigfoot” Silva. He’s slow and he’s plodding, but Werdum can be a little sloppy at times and if Silva is patient he can take advantage of that.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Fedor + Mousasi + Shields. Boring, but dependable, it’s the Volvo of parlay bets.
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Comments
steampunk22 Says:
First hurray!
steampunk22 Says:
Yeah, there isn't really much reason for this card to warrant a lot of action. It SHOULD play out the way its supposed to barring exceptional circumstances, all of which are stated above. A good chance to become slightly richer, but only slightly. Only slightly.
J-Dog Says:
I hope my buddy Shamar Bailey's fight makes the televised portion.
One Two Says:
is shields a bad ass wrestler? mayhem rolled with jacare for 15 min and looked pretty good, and his standups better than shields so i'm guessing these odds are due to a belief he'll get out wrestled?
i think mayhems gonna be the only upset.
Evernette Says:
Too bad Bodog only lets you bet on the Fedor/Rodgers fight... That would definitely be my parlay bet.
Swedish Says:
The card is so one sided it's not even funny. Couple that with the fact that production value will be non existent.
Who want's to listen to Frank and his teenage braces for 3 hours?
I predict an EPIC fail and after this card is done NOBODY will still know who Feydor is
Smitty Says:
If Rogers does get lucky and KO Fedor, the people that don't know the sport but just happened to watch this "Big CBS card", are gonna all of sudden think "wow, this guy must be one of the worlds greatest mixed martial artists". That's what scares me.
Jarekov The Great Says:
i like mayhems odds against shields allot, mayhem is hard as hell to submit despite his mediocre wrestling. Hes also as tough as they come, i dont see jake finishing this fight because he wont submit him, mayhem is too tough to be gnp'ded out, and his standup isnt going to knock mayhem out.
I can see Miller winning this fight though through his striking.
Oh and sokoudjou is a serious dark horse in his fight because hes a fucking monster 205 and if he has a good camp he is a dangerous fighter. He has looked like shit but he has the physical tools and size to dominate others at 205, he just hasnt done it yet.
KidDinomite Says:
OH GOD!!! Strikeforce better not have that stupid Keys to Victory segment where so-and-so has to use this one move in order to win the fight. So basically if The Grimm uses a Omoplata on Fedor, he'll win the bout..... right.... Also the segment where Shamrock puts on an exhibition for MMA noobs is condescending and idiotic. You know what? Just get rid of Shamrock altogether. His time is way over and he needs to hang it up for good, and that means color commentary as well...
Professor Choas Says:
I think Vandy couture has a better chance of gettin a KO in the re-run against noguiera than rogers does against fedor
MMAMoneyLine Says:
Good call on that parlay. If Soko pulls out a victory, I'll never say another bad word about him.
meanfinger Says:
fedor is bad ass but even if he wins.. he's not the champ.. it's only cbs and people that are clinging to fedors nuts that are interested in this card.. sure im gonna watch, but it doesnt mean shit really.. cuz overeem is really the champ. and we all know he's bein a bitch ass can stomper.
for the love of mma Says:
strike force is doing this the right way and not counting on pay-per-view but rating for CBS!! CBS covers the whole country and people who dont have cable will still see this and thats the diference between affliction and strikeforce!!! and fedor is more reliable than kimbo and thats why they wont end up like elite xc !!!
KidDinomite Says:
Mousassi will just submit Sokoudjou if he can't win by strikes. Sok really needs to work on his wrestling and jiu-jitsu and then he would be a major contender at 205. But Mousassi is tall and lanky and has a good reach. I say this one ends in the first by KO or submission for Mousassi.
As for my boy Mayhem, you gotta give it to him. His bout with Jacare proves that he can't be submitted. That and Jacare has a better ground game than Shields. Plus that fight was like a year ago so I'm sure he's gotten a lot better since then. I say Mayhem either wins by KO in the third or by decision.
831 Son Says:
I agree with Swedish. The commentators for every other MMA sports organization suck fat donkey dick. They have no place commenting on MMA. I get angry every time I hear one of these uneducated idiots talk. Even though Goldie can be a douchebag every once in a while, him and Joe Rogan are by far the best MMA commentators we will ever have, ever. Bas Rutten is good too but hes got that HDnet gig going for him. Im not betting a penny on this event because the payout wouldnt even be enough for me to get a McChicken.
superflat Says:
@KidDinomite: Yeah, I also like Mayhem.
The Fedor fight does feel like it has fate written all over it. Rogers is just the kind of nobody to end a perfectly good winning streak. That said, it just doesn't feel write to translate deus ex machina into cold hard cash.
skeletor Says:
For some reason I haven't had a good feeling about Fedor winning this fight. I don't know if it's him fighting in the cage or in America or what. It just seems that when anybody besides the UFC tries anything on a big scale like this it blows up in there face. But on the other hand zi'm probably wrong as shit and Fedor will crush him as expected. Either way I'm looking forward to Mousasi crushing Soko.
manutdfan Says:
What's the over/under on anyone providing me with where to get a Glorious Sweater of Absolute Victory? I really want to get one.
MachidaVsSilva Says:
It's okay to be scared K.E.G. But Fedor will bring the thunder like he always does. Fedor will look to finish this one quick. He's much faster than Rogers and if it goes longer than one round Rogers will gas. I like Fedor by knockout.
phaderlanx Says:
@ manutdfan
If my nerdacious mma knowldege serves me correctly, someone made it for him. If someone can inform us of who made it, congratulations, you are the biggest mma nerd savant of all time.
two_black_eyes Says:
@manutdfan
You cant just go and pick up a Glorious Sweater of Absolute Victory. Its gotta have some sort of gypsy blessing put on it or something. You probably have to go through some sort of ritual and if they feel you are undeserving you end up like Aleksander.
Soda Popinski Says:
@ Jarekov The Great
I agree with you on the sokoudjou/mousassi fight. Im the first to say that mousassi is an unreal fighter, but at the same time ive always thought of sokoudjou as a fighter that has all the potential in the world to be a beast. it just seems that his head has never really been 100% in it. so if he's went out and got himself in a good camp, this could be a fight thats not as lopsided as alot of people see it.
i guess we'll see.
jimbonics Says:
1. Brett Rogers ain't been hit like Fedor hits. I give the man about a 3% chance of winning this.
2. I predict 6 million viewers minimum. Possibly upwards of 10. If Bimbo and Fat-ass can get 6 on basic cable... Only thing going against them is a weeknight when people are in vs weekend when people are out.
3. Really good card. Now let's hope MMA gains more fans and attention and that CBS/Strikeforce doesn't shit the bed.
MachidaVsSilva Says:
Fedor by murder/death/kill. Rogers has a size advantage. Of course I outweigh the average leopard by 80 lbs. I wouldn't bet on myself in that fight.
MachidaVsSilva Says:
Fedor will win.
LargeMidget Says:
I have Fedor winning this fight, but Rogers should be more like a +300ish. There's way dumber things to buy for 20$ than a bet on Brett "The Grim" Rogers at +500...
I agree whole-heartedly with your parlay.
Fedor, armbar, R1
Shields, guillotine, R2
Mousasi, TKO, R1
One Two Says:
Fedor
Mousassi
mayhem
Werdum
Parlay$$$$$$$$$$$$$
+629
manutdfan Says:
Thanks, Phader and TBE. I understand it wouldn't guarantee me victory, I just really wanted to have a similar one. It's so much cooler than buying an Affliction shirt.