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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley’

(Pic: Tapology)

It’s hard to even know what to think about Paul Daley anymore. Given what we understand about the current MMA landscape, the ’60s radical in us wants to pump our fist and shout out a Hopper-esque “Right on, man!” every time Daley goes on record saying he’s not going to “kiss ass” for the UFC empire. Then again, Daley himself is so thoroughly detestable that it’s also hard not to hope Nick Diaz takes him down and chokes him out in like 45 seconds this weekend during their Strikeforce welterweight title match. Then, if Diaz, Daley, Brock Lesnar, Georges St. Pierre and BJ Penn joined hands in the cage, sang “We Shall Overcome” and announced they were filing a joint antitrust suit against Zuffa, LLC, well, that’d be about perfect … as long as one of them didn’t try to steal a bunch of beer from a riverboat casino later that night … but anyways …

Of the five betting websites we perused this morning, only one – Bookmaker.com – is offering lines on all four of Strikeforce’s scheduled televised bouts as well as a couple from the undercard. Most electronic bookies are steadfastly avoiding Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine, likely because they don’t want to be complicit in Jardine’s untimely demise. Not Bookmaker though, those brave motherfuckers are posting odds on that fight and somehow still allowing prop bets on the Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix. A guy can still get Fab Werdum to win it all at +550 over there, if you’re interested. In order to stay focused on the here and now however, after the jump are the lines for Saturday night’s “Diaz vs. Daley” show courtesy Bookmaker, plus our picks.

Televised Card:
Nick Diaz (-215) vs. Paul Daley (+175)
Gilbert Melendez (-210) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+170)
Keith Jardine (+330) vs. Gegard Mousasi (-430)
Shinya Aoki (-200) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (+160)

Available Prelim Odds:
Robert Peralta (+210) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (-260)
Saad Awad (+125) vs. Joe Duarte (-155)

Main event: Aside from a couple of high profile upsets, the trick with Strikeforce shows is not to over think things. Generally speaking, the guys you expect to win, do. In this fight that guy is Diaz. Granted, the slug-first approach he’s taken in recent wins over the XY Cyborg Santos and Karl Noons Jr. are a tad worrisome. Remember how the “feel Daley out on the feet” approach went for Dustin Hazelett and Martin Kampmann? Yeah, let’s not do that here, Nick. If he doesn’t, we see this as a fairly easy submission win for the champ. If he does, well, don’t say we didn’t warn ya.

Lightweight “title” fight: The fact that Melendez continues to reign as “champ” of a division that seems to only have like two fulltime fighters (him and Justin Wilcox) certainly doesn’t make him any less bet-able, but it does take a lot of the excitement out of these play-date 155-pound title bouts. Kawajiri still has one of the better nicknames in MMA and some good recent wins over Josh Thomson and JZ Cavalcante, but A-list losses in 2010 (Aoki), 2008 (Alvarez) and 2006 (Melendez himself) makes us think he’s about due for another. Bet the champ.

Dean of Mean vs. Sweet N’ Sassy: Dude, not even Keith Jardine’s family is betting on him in this one. The Dean ain’t even kind of worth it here at +330. His awkwardness will not win the day. If you feel like making a few pennies off the terrible odds on Mousasi, go for it. Otherwise, save him for the parlay.

The Man in Tights vs. The Man in Pants: This one would be a lot more interesting if Beerbohm hadn’t just lost to Pat Healy. As it stands, we’re not really digging it, or the odds. Fancy Pants could totally win, but +160 isn’t really enough to get us excited about taking the risk. Unless you really feel like you need a bet down on every fight to make yourself care (and if you do, seek help), let this one pass.

Undercard madness: No idea who these guys are. Didn’t look them up. Not going to. What we are going to do – or at least what we would do if we were at this show live — is place smallish bets on both underdogs and then cheer our asses off for them. Peralta and Saad Awad (which frankly is a name that’s just begging for us to chant it from the bleachers for like a half hour straight, until people start throwing half-empty plastic bottles of Mike’s Hard Lemonade at us) for the win, baby!

Official CagePotato Parlay: Look, let’s be realistic. This show ain’t gonna take you on a wild ride to the Planet Money. The parlay here is unremarkable, but pretty straightforward: Diaz-Melendez-Mousasi. Bank it and be happy.

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RwilsonR- April 6, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Not too far from Poway.
El Guapo- April 6, 2011 at 3:35 pm
And damned if you guys don't have me thinking about throwing a lil something on Techno Viking's cousin. Those odds are pretty juicy + wrestling > Sweet Sassy = Cha ching
El Guapo- April 6, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Thanks, Wilson. Definitely thinking about going. My younger brother moved down to Poway for work in Nov and I've been meaning to pay him a visit. If he's down... 2 birds, 1 stone.
RwilsonR- April 6, 2011 at 2:43 pm
@ El Guapo - Valley View Casino is in Valley Center, about 35 minutes north-east of San Diego, just past Escondido. It is on land that Indians decided to "trade" the state for, and then called it sacred and on a reservation so they could build a casino. If you need directions, let me know. It is about 10 minutes from where I grew up.
Nut Puncher 9000- April 6, 2011 at 2:38 pm
This whole "Diaz better not stay standing" thing reminds me of 2004 and his fight with Robbie Lawler. It still amazes me that people dont give the Diaz brothers credit for their stand up...their styles are confusing, aggresive, and do damage. Everyone calls them pitter-pat punches but everyone they fight ends up looking like they got hit by a train after.

It doesnt matter where this fight goes. Diaz wont have any trouble.
Johnny WF- April 6, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Please tell me you're joking when you say you haven't heard of Hiroyuki Takaya...
Romanhelmut- April 6, 2011 at 1:58 pm
@ CaptnJonesy....lol....well said!

The UK fighters have so many holes in their game. Someone get them a wrestling trainer....
IsnappedYourarm- April 6, 2011 at 1:16 pm
@CaptnJonesy Lol @ Rogan's theory. Maybe thats the first time you heard it but that shit has been around before MMA
CaptnJonesy- April 6, 2011 at 1:09 pm
I don't think Daley has all that knockout power that people say he does. I've seen him land plenty of flush shots and not put fighters away...plus he's from UK so he's automatically soft and has terrible teeth.

Diaz is like one of those retarded kids in class....really dumb but you can beat him in the head with a baseball bat and not hurt him. Plus he has that big ass head on his shoulders, if you want to go with Joe Rogan's 'Big Head Theory'

The winner? Diaz's pot dealer after he gets the victory check
Waxedpants- April 6, 2011 at 12:52 pm
UncleWaxy says the Goblin will win. I have said it multiple times so everyone knows I said it.

yes I will call myself a total douchebag if I am wrong -- that is only fair

@jimbonics --- did he "really" lose to karo ? I hated that decision.
IsnappedYourarm- April 6, 2011 at 12:45 pm
Diaz/Daley will be just like GSP/Hardy, Johnson/Hardy, or Koscheck/Daley. Except Diaz will be actively trying to end the fight. The best punch Daley lands will be after the fight. Hopefully Sheilds will jump in and smother him to death cause his homey just fought for 25 minutes. Those silly redcoats can't wrassle.
IsnappedYourarm- April 6, 2011 at 12:40 pm
If Jardine is in good shape I can see him taking Gegard down easily. He looked like a fish out of water when king mo held him down for 3 rounds.
jimbonics- April 6, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Diaz isn't infallible. He lost to Karo and Joe Riggs FFS.
Clyde- April 6, 2011 at 12:36 pm
I know Diaz can take a punch, but when Daley hits you, you stay hit.
PERPATRAITOR- April 6, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Daley has great size and power for his weight class. Diaz has grip strength to hold those arms from GNP. Diaz via TKO rnd 2. Diaz has been floored before and only tko'd by a rapist. It was his second fight that night so you can't blame the guy but diaz was clearly out and iit has never happened since. The only way to beat Diaz is wrestling and anti-juijitsu. Daley is fucked he has neither. Please fight Daley vs Hardy :). WAR DIAZ!!!!
superflat- April 6, 2011 at 11:48 am
I'd be more worried about Diaz if he didn't have an amazing chin. Not that Daley can't knock him out, but he'll have to hit him right on the button, and Diaz' boxing is too good. He has a puncher's chance, but just barely.
ArmFarmer- April 6, 2011 at 11:41 am
Has diaz ever been ko'd.. or even rocked? Him and his bro can take some punishment on the feet. Nate got blasted by Marcus Davis several times and it didn't even phase him. I think a strong chin is in their genetics. That said, nobody is immune to ko's. I doubt diaz loses this though, betting on daley is stupid imo.
FeelDaRiddum- April 6, 2011 at 11:18 am
diaz will die if he tries standing with semtex.
SnackDaddy- April 6, 2011 at 11:00 am
Those are surprisingly good odds for Daley.
El Guapo- April 6, 2011 at 11:00 am
That poster's tight. Not for the Yankee vs Redcoat theme, either. It just is. Anyway, where the hell is Valleyview Casino? I'm tempted to make the drive down South, maybe catch the donkey show after.
jimbonics- April 6, 2011 at 10:50 am
And fuck Daley. Faggot Tosser Poofter.
 
Wait, what?
jimbonics- April 6, 2011 at 10:48 am
Don't sleep on Jardine. Sassy said it best. This is Techno Viking's way back into the UFC.
RwilsonR- April 6, 2011 at 10:47 am
I may take a chance on a Daley-Melendez-Mousasi parlay. Two of the three are a lock, and I get a 4-to-1 payoff for the parlay instead of just 1.75-to-1 for just betting Daley as a dog.
RwilsonR- April 6, 2011 at 10:40 am
I think Diaz is the better fighter, but he thinks he can stand and bang with anyone, even when it isn't smart. I hope he wins, but Daley's power has me worried in this one.
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