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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Strikeforce Diaz vs. Noons II’ Edition


(Now that’s gangster. Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II goes down Saturday night (Showtime, 10 p.m. ET/PT), and it’s not too late to put some cash on the fights. If you’ve already blown your kids’ college fund — hey, it happens — please swing by MMA Fightpicker and made your picks there. Otherwise, check out the Internet’s most favorable betting odds (below, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com) and let’s get to work…

MAIN CARD
Nick Diaz (-199) vs. KJ Noons (+200)
Sarah Kaufman (-290) vs. Marloes Coenen (+273)
Josh Thomson (-160) vs. Gesias "J.Z." Cavalcante (+159)
Tyron Woodley (-240) vs. Andre Galvao (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Bret Bergmark (-124) vs. James Terry (+120)
Eric Lawson (-110) vs. Ron Keslar (EV)


The Main Event: You already know how I feel about this; KJ’s a bad style matchup for the scowling champion, and I think the prospect of doubling your money by betting on Noons is worth the risk. But if you’re a Stockton nuthugger or you just want to hedge your Noons bet, you can stick Nick Diaz in a parlay with one or two other favorites.

The Women: As skilled as Marloes Coenen is, the 135 pound division belongs to Sarah Kaufman right now. Kaufman eats grapplers for breakfast; Coenen will get shut down the same way Modafferi, Tate and Baszler did. We’re not in the business of putting straight bets on 3-1 favorites, though. What did we say about pairing Diaz in a parlay with another likely winner?

The Question Mark: Thomson vs. Cavalcante is a true toss-up. An in-shape JZ is a force to reckon with, but it’s hard to say if he’s completely "back" at this point. The Punk gets to be a favorite based on home-field advantage, but it’s hard to predict who will really have the edge. Great fight, but you may want to save your money.

The Good ‘Dog: Tyron Woodley is a wrestler who’s 6-0 against mediocre competition. Andre Galvao is a BJJ specialist who’s 5-1 against slightly better competition. I see this as a close matchup, and +220 for Galvao is more than tempting.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on a Hypothetical $40 Stake:
$20 on Noons
$10 on Galvao
$10 parlay on Diaz + Kaufman + Woodley

Cagepotato Comments

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itsgalf- October 7, 2010 at 1:44 pm
My prediction: KJ Noons def. Nick Diaz 0:01 after the end of the 1st round.
ghostboner- October 7, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Reefer??? Oh no? Is he living in a single room with 3 other individuals, also?

Ok, Jewish dude, Guusbust'r, Seriously? You really think Kaufman will eat Coenen for breakfast? M. Coenen, the woman who lasted approximately 2 rounds with that Cyborg dude? And calling her a grappler isn't exactly accurate either, she trains at Golden Glory for fuxsakes. Sure she has most wins by sub, but Golden Glory?

I am an admitted long time hanger on Marloes'...nuts?...clit?...labia?...taint?...not sure how to gender modify that one, but bias aside I don't see how the odds can favor Kaufman. I see Marloes winning because;
A- She is a better fighter standing or grappling, who has
B- A size advantage, and
C- A better gym/camp.
The only thing in Kaufman's favor is the extra 10lb weight cut for Coenen. I'll take Marloes, and hope she isn't dehydrated and weak at 135.
El Guapo- October 7, 2010 at 11:10 am
Although I agree KJ's sick wrestling, superior all around game and naturally smaller frame is a bad matchup for Diaz, the real reason I'm taking Noons is because Nick is a despicable, no good, low class thug who smokes marijuana cigarettes... Reefer!
imabigfan- October 7, 2010 at 11:01 am
anyone else notice goldberg hanging out in the middle of the melay? I miss a good, old fashioned wrasslin match.
Smitty- October 7, 2010 at 10:59 am
Great photo and caption. Real lol shit!
Almost North- October 7, 2010 at 10:30 am
I know its late in the week but can we get a fightpicker selection for whether or not the increased security they hired will be needed?
DazedNConfused- October 7, 2010 at 9:50 am
Yeah I'd have to go with Diaz in this one. I can see Noons having a good first round, but this time Diaz will weather the storm and begin to pick him apart in rounds 2 and 3. Hopefully finishing him. So your parley looks legit. Too legit to quit in fact.
PortlandMMA- October 7, 2010 at 9:28 am
Don't bet against Diaz or you're all gonna get F'd in the A on Satadaaay.

Seriously though as a Diaz fan I'm not so sure about this fight. Hopefully the fact its at 170 will help Diaz out. Has Noons ever fought at 170?
The Fresh One- October 7, 2010 at 9:13 am
That's my favorite Diaz picture. Homie scared.
Art Vanderley Silva- October 7, 2010 at 9:06 am
"Nick Diaz will do his hands-up taunting thing..."

now the fight pickers getting somewhere
bgaspar_00- October 7, 2010 at 8:48 am
wow did you ever fail on that quote... "don't be scared homie"
FlashinLeather- October 7, 2010 at 8:40 am
GILL is right, but its actually the payout of the first fight bet again on the next fight and so on. So if you have a $10 parlay on three people. If the first pay out totals $15 then that $15 goes on and is bet on the next person and so on. you gotta win em all.

there fun...if you into that sort of thing
J_Spice- October 7, 2010 at 8:01 am
Consider it done! haha that bitch wont get another dime from me!
GILL-uh-TEEN- October 7, 2010 at 7:58 am
A parlay is a bet on a combination of things. For example, BG is betting $10 that Diaz + Kaufman + Woodley will win. Since it's more unlikely that all of those things will happen, the risk is higher, thus the payout is more than betting them individually.

He's basically assuming Kaufman and Woodley will win since they're heavy favorites (to lower his risk) and shifting the majority of his risk to Diaz.

Now that you know, take that child support payment and this month's rent and prove your MMA knowledge!
GILL-uh-TEEN- October 7, 2010 at 7:55 am
Do not be afraid homeboy
J_Spice- October 7, 2010 at 7:50 am
how does a parlay work exactly? anyone?
destinationblood- October 7, 2010 at 7:49 am
put the money on noons
agentsmith- October 7, 2010 at 7:48 am
That's a big wall of fat guy in that photo. No breaking through that shit.
ReX13- October 7, 2010 at 7:41 am
So, Ben's hair vs Mike's hair: how's that coming together?
CagePotatoMMA