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Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery’ Edition


(Props: Snakefinger)

Before we get started, we gotta ask: Have you made your MMA FightPicker selections yet? If so, please note that we had to change two of the "Worlds Collide: Mayorga vs. Thomas"-related questions today, as Travis Galbriath has pulled out of his match with Murilo "Ninja" Rua and has been replaced by UFC vet David Heath, and Nick Thompson has reportedly been replaced by Derrick Noble against Eduardo Pamplona. It’s a real mess, so please revisit your pools and make any necessary changes.

The betting sites are only taking action on six of the fights for this Saturday’s Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery show, so wager wisely. Here are the odds, courtesy of MMA Moneyline:

Alistair Overeem (-255) vs. Brett Rogers (+220)
Andrei Arlovski (-170) vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva (+160)
Roger Gracie (-435) vs. Kevin Randleman (+325)
Ronaldo Souza (-480) vs. Joey Villasenor (+380)
Vitor Ribeiro (-130) vs. Lyle Beerbohm (+105)
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (-195) vs. Antwain Britt (+165)

So how can you make some cash this weekend? Well…


The Main Event: Overeem is a strong favorite over The Grim based on the general opinion of him as a beefed-up destroyer. His reputation is not unwarranted, but ask yourself one question — When was the last time Overeem beat a top-caliber heavyweight? If you answered "never," you might be on to something. Over the last three years, Overeem’s best MMA win was his beatdown of Paul Buentello, which originally won him Strikeforce’s heavyweight title in November 2007. His no-contest against Mirko Cro Cop the following year earned him a lot of cred, but outside of those two fights, his record is littered with more cans than a public park in Oakland. (No offense.) Alistair has plenty of confidence, but the truth is he’s never beaten a heavyweight as dangerous as Brett Rogers, who I think is a smart choice for small underdog action. (Side note: The fact that Overeem isn’t used to drug testing could also be an issue — though Missouri may let him slide by on the honor system.)

The Co-Headliner: I’m staying away from this one. Sure, I think Arlovski is the better fighter overall, but I’m also not in the habit of betting on a guy who’s coming back from two vicious knockouts, a year of inactivity, and a possible suicide attempt. If you want to take a chance on Bigfoot, be my guest.

The Good ‘Dog: Lyle Beerbohm. Vitor Ribeiro used to be one of the greatest lightweights in the world, but after a long injury layoff and uninspiring performances last year in DREAM, I wonder if he still has it. Meanwhile, "Fancy Pants" is one of the best lightweight prospects fighting today, with a perfect 13-0 record (12 wins by stoppage), and first-round thrashings of UFC vets Duane Ludwig and Rafaello Oliveira under his belt. Fighting Shaolin will be a step up in competition, but I think Beerbohm will rise to the occasion. I also feel that Joey Villasenor is being undervalued at +380 against Jacare. Obviously he’ll be at a tremendous disadvantage on the mat — and I’m not telling you what to do here — but if he can keep it standing he has more than a puncher’s chance. Just stay away from Randleman, okay? He’s getting subbed, guaranteed.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Gracie + Beerbohm + Cavalcante.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $10 on Rogers
– $20 on Beerbohm
– $5 on Villasenor
– $15 on the Parlay

If you’re interested in the odds for the Shine Fights event, click here.

Cagepotato Comments

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Mr_Misanthropy- May 13, 2010 at 11:36 pm
I'm going to bet the farm on Randle-can. I figure its got similar odds to winning a lottery jackpot, and I enjoy living dangerously. Usually I do it vicariously through others.
HokeyPokeyLikeAoki- May 13, 2010 at 10:27 pm
I bet a whole 20 chips on Grimace and Fancy Panties.
Dr. Cagelove- May 13, 2010 at 8:55 pm
At those odds Rogers is a decent shot. Overeem's head movement and foot movement haven't looked good. Rogers is a good boxer and managed to put some good power into Fedor. I think this would be the one to go for.

Absolutely Don't Bet Against: Bigfoot. It has nothing to do with him. Arlovski's glass chin and poor focus are going to be his doom. This would be like betting on Parisyan. Just because he kicked ass 4 years ago doesn't mean he is the same person.
fatbellyfrank- May 13, 2010 at 7:54 pm
I think I'll take some rogers to reduce me to poverty once again
Robocop Didnt Tap- May 13, 2010 at 7:35 pm
I'm taking Britt, Beerbohm and Rogers for my parlay. If Gracie was fighting anyone other than Randleman, I would've given strong consideration to his opponent.
MMAMoneyLine- May 13, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Thanks for the shout out. Beerbohn and Britt could be two very good underdog picks. Looks to be a pretty evenly matched card even though it might not seem so on paper.
LockDown- May 13, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Are my eyes betraying me or is written in the poster "Antonia" Silva? They just called a giant head Bigfoot gay.
PurplePickle- May 13, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Rogers impressed me the way he took it to Fedor. Plus he ate a shot that the Last Emperor put all of Stary Oskol into before he launched it, and Grimm was still able to bitch about the stoppage a few seconds later. That's kind of impressive to say the least. Flush on the jaw like that punch was, Brett should have been doing the curled toe, cross eyed, floor shakes.

As for Overeem's new bulk, I would not be surprised to find out that Rogers is still the stronger of the two. Muscular hypertrophy and phenomenal strength don't nessesarily go hand in hand. Rogers could easily pull an Iceman on Overeem circa 2003.

If I were to bet, I would bet on Rogers. But I won't cause I don't gamble. I have crack rocks to buy. Them shits don't smoke themselves.
ghostboner- May 13, 2010 at 3:43 pm
I'll take Overeem because A: he uses or used steroids, and B: Rogers is way overrated.

Arlovski is my favorite set of nuuts to hug, so I'll take him.

And that event poster is super mega ultra badass.
HokeyPokeyLikeAoki- May 13, 2010 at 3:28 pm
I don't need 513 for that. It's common knowledge.
justscrappin- May 13, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Where is 513 to tell us that Ken Shamrock would double heel hook Overeem and Rogers at the same time?
The Lizardking05- May 13, 2010 at 2:23 pm
that needs to be the official poster of the event... that is pretty bad ass
MediumRare- May 13, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Overeem to win via steroid-powered knees to the face.

Bigfoot to win via nasty look to Arlovski's chin.
(This makes me sad 'cause I spent many years swinging on the Pitbull's nuts.)

Gracie via whatever he wants after Randleman gasses in the 20th second of the 1st round.
ItburnswhenIpee- May 13, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Rogers takes this one... he got back to his feet when Fedor took him down, and he took Fedor's best shot and stayed standing... (he was done, but it wasn't a ko- talk about a granite chin)
Mr_Misanthropy- May 13, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Uberroid is already convinced he's some kind of Kevin Fedor-line, all you have to do is look at his fabolous hairs and charming smile to know he's more concerned with his Teen Beat centerfold than defending his belt. I say Rogers by KO, rd. 1, due to needing to put food on the table. Bigfoot is going to destroy Arlovski, he looked really good in the first two rounds of his Werdum fight. Roger gracie gets a W and a case of staph infection for his troubles.
MoonBelly- May 13, 2010 at 1:55 pm
@Homo - I thought when Ben wrote an article he signed it (BG)... did I miss something? I was assuming this was 'not Ben'
SofaKingNyce- May 13, 2010 at 1:53 pm
lol Overeem is winning this - TKO 3rd round or Sub in 2nd

I bet Brett's career is going to go downhill from here.
VisitingDeadAncestors- May 13, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Really want Arlovski to win this but i don't think he's mentally where he was many years ago.

And i'm going Overeem because HE USES STEROIDS.
Merlin- May 13, 2010 at 1:44 pm
ReX13 I believe "The Reemer" will make "Uncle Rogers" look slow and flabby in this fight ... no wait one of those he's already done.

Huuray for bitch tits.
RearNakedPoke- May 13, 2010 at 1:43 pm
i see rogers taking this one, Alistair hasnt really fought anybody tough, should be a good fight until they gas
Homoplata- May 13, 2010 at 1:21 pm
now you're giving a wager breakdown? you're awful j3wish ben
PurplePickle- May 13, 2010 at 1:21 pm
The Grimm puts The Reem to sleep and the fight doesn't see the championship rounds. Arlovski/Bigfoot is a wait and see, and Randleman fighting on a main card in 2010 is mind-boggling.
El Guapo- May 13, 2010 at 1:19 pm
What can be said about Oakland that can't be said about Afghanistan?

Don't know why, but I gotta feeling Grim's gonna destroy Alistair.


HokeyPokeyLikeAoki- May 13, 2010 at 1:07 pm
lol! I wish they had horsemeat in those Big Mac's. Then i could really get supersized!
Dickface- May 13, 2010 at 1:06 pm
I don't remember the last time a Gracie won anything, so they're bound to be "due"
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