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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Strikeforce Houston Edition


("Listen, Jacare, those hotel carpets are usually covered in…you know what, forget it.")

Strikeforce Houston is set to blast off this Saturday and your old pal Gambling Addiction Enabler has just one question: Could you loan us a few bucks until payday? Seriously, man, we’ve got some can’t-miss fight picks cookin’, and we swear it won’t be like last time. Thanks, bro. For real, you won’t regret this. Would it be cool if we used your shower?

The available betting lines, courtesy of bestfightodds.com:

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (-376) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (+375)
Ronaldo Souza (-255) vs. Tim Kennedy (+215)
KJ Noons (-205) vs. Jorge Gurgel (+205)
Bobby Lashley (-500) vs. Chad Griggs (+370)
Daniel Cormier (-1350) vs. Jason Riley (+700)*
Andre Galvao (-280) vs. Jorge Patino (+240)**

* The Cormier/Riley and Galvao/Patino prelim fights will both be streamed live on Sherdog before the Showtime broadcast.

** Jorge Patino is a late replacement for Nate Moore, who has dropped out of the event due to injury. Please make your Fightpicker changes as necessary.

Anyway…


The Main Event: A bet on Cavalcante would nearly quadruple your money — and that’s still not enough to change our opinion that King Mo is world class, while Feijao isn’t quite there yet. We still haven’t seen Feijao tested by an elite-level wrestler; we saw him get knocked out by Mike Kyle last year, and that wasn’t too encouraging. Meanwhile, Lawal has shown that he can comfortably switch his gameplan from heavy-handed standup to tenacious wrestling and top control, depending on his opponents’ weaknesses. You know we love a good upset, but we’re staying away from this one.

The Good ‘Dog: Jacare vs. Kennedy feels more like a pick-’em to us, so if you’re offering 2-1 underdog odds on Tim, we’re taking it. The oddsmakers seem to think that Jacare’s grappling will win the day, but Kennedy has shown that his submission skills can be just as formidable, and he’s never been tapped. Plus, he arguably holds the advantages in striking and wrestling. If Kennedy can avoid the one thing that Jacare does really well, he’s got this.

The Favorite: As I said on Friday’s podcast, Noons should be able to pick apart Gurgel to a decision. If KJ’s line was any higher I wouldn’t suggest putting straight money on him, but this feels like a solid investment.

The Squash Matches: Damn, those are some big-ass numbers for Cormier and Lashley. And while I think both of their lines have been inflated by hype, they’re strong favorites for good reason. Yes, Griggs is a legitimate test for Lashley, and Cormier’s schedule has been grueling, but I’d still be comfortable sticking both of these fights in a parlay.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on a Hypothetical $50 Stake: 
$10 on Kennedy
$20 on Noons
$20 on Lawal+Lashley+Cormier parlay

(BG)

Cagepotato Comments

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ricgaddisjr- August 17, 2010 at 10:37 pm
King Mo gassing against sassi??? He utterly dominated him both standing and on the ground for 25 minutes straight. If that's gassing then what do you call what carwin did?
One Two- August 17, 2010 at 6:55 pm
Jacares the best MW in the world, and since kennedys not mousassi delivering a precisely placed, freak upkick knocking him out, which is the only way he can be beat i see jacare becoming the champ.
jimbonics- August 17, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Listen, Jacare, those hotel carpets are usually covered in big ugly ass red pixels.
Bill Jackson- August 17, 2010 at 3:37 pm
What is with the picture?
Bookgrub- August 17, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Hotlinking images CP? For shame.
El Guapo- August 17, 2010 at 2:26 pm
Did a lil research here and it says Lashley's actually fighting somebody with a pulse, which is good enough for me. Plus 370 is the cherry on top..

Brazilian Bean+Grave Digger+GI Joe parlay= I'm Rich, Bitch!!


RwilsonR- August 17, 2010 at 2:02 pm
I'd really like to see Tim Kennedy win, but I think Jacare is too much. I hope I'm wrong, though.
BONGTAR- August 17, 2010 at 2:02 pm
everyone loses due to looking at that pixealted nightmare too long.
RwilsonR- August 17, 2010 at 1:59 pm
I think Feijao would be a good underdog bet. I've never really seen King Mo take a big punch, and he also gassed pretty badly against Sassy. Chances are that Cavalcante ends up on his ass for the entire match, but I think a small bet on him might pay off.

Not with my money of course... but, you know, if you like those kinds of bets...
Sudos KFC- August 17, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Yeah ronaldos jitz looked unstoppable vs. Joey v...oh wait, kennedy can win this from teh top
Merlin- August 17, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Ronaldo Souza all the way!!!!
Tim Kennedy is not going to have an answer for the Gator not standing and much less once it hits the ground ... which it will.

Watch for him to get swallowed whole August 21, 2010 .
Sakuraba3900- August 17, 2010 at 1:08 pm
Strikeforce needs to sign Kawajiri so we can see a rematch of the 2006 boutThe Crusher vs El Nino. The roster they have is light and honestly this card proves it.

Oh and just to let you know Macaco should give Galvao a fight thats a lot tougher than they are crediting him for.
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