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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Strikeforce – Lawler vs. Shields


(If Arlovski comes in with the same game plan as that big-ass tire, at least we know Rogers will be ready for him.)

There are exactly two indicators that something is important in contemporary American society: 1) there is a commemorative plate about it, and 2) you can bet on it.  Don’t believe me?  Then just consider two of the most important things happening in MMA this week – the Strikeforce event on Showtime this Saturday night, and the “Ultimate Fighter” Kimbo-mania that has set the internets on fire. Kimbo Slice is currently a +275 underdog to make it into the final two on this season of TUF.  The fact that there’s even a line this early on tells you what a big deal it is.  Still waiting on that commemorative plate, though.

Of course, if you like something closer to immediate gratification, you can just choose from these lines on Saturday’s Strikeforce fights, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Jake Shields (-115) vs. Robbie Lawler (-105)
Brett Rogers (+300) vs. Andrei Arlovski (-340)
Joe Riggs (+105) vs. Phil Baroni (-115)
Scott Smith (+300) vs. Nick Diaz (-310)
Kevin Randleman (-110) vs. Mike Whitehead (+105)
Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante (-370) vs. Mike Kyle (+300)

The breakdown…


- It’s no surprise that oddsmakers think the Shields/Lawler fight is pretty even.  On one hand there’s Shields’ suffocating ground game, and then on the other there’s Lawler’s size advantage and one-punch KO ability.  If Lawler can avoid the takedown this is his fight.  Shields doesn’t have the striking game to stand with him and they both know it.  Because they both know it, and because Lawler has had more than enough time to drill takedown defense with his wrestler buddy Matt Hughes, I really like his chances to keep it standing and knock Shields the hell out.  The Bet: $40 on Lawler.

- WTF?  Scott Smith is a 3-1 underdog against Nick Diaz?  Look, I agree that Diaz deserves to be the favorite, but shit, those are Arlovski/Rogers odds right there.  You’re telling me Smith has about as good a chance to win as “The Grimm”?  I don’t buy it.  It’s true that Diaz has more ways to win, but Smith has one very good one that he can unleash even after getting his ass kicked for three rounds.  Just because Diaz beat on the younger of the two old Shamrocks, it doesn’t make him Superman.  This is worth a little action just because of the lopsided line.  The Bet: $10 on Smith.

- In any Phil Baroni fight the questions you have to ask yourself are, in order of importance, When is he going to gas out and turn into a slow-pitch haymaker machine? and, Can he knock his opponent out before that point?  The NYBA’s work at Xtreme Couture might have bought him a little more time before he loses steam, but it’s hard not to think that from the moment he steps in that cage it’s a countdown until he morphs into Exhausted Phil once again.  This is his last chance to prove otherwise, and the good news is that Joe Riggs is fairly knockout-able for him.  With the line this close and both guys so unpredictable, I’ll pick Baroni but won’t put any money behind it.

- Absolutely Don’t Bet Against:
“Feijao” Cavalcante.  He’s going to murder Mike Kyle, even if it will be relegated to the unaired undercard.

- Official Cage Potato Parlay: Lawler + Feijao + Smith + Arlovski.  And this card seems so unpredictable that I don’t feel at all good about any of it.

Cagepotato Comments

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Jake- June 4, 2009 at 7:49 am
I'm not a fan of Shields and I think Lawler just has too much for his one dimensional game. Remember, Lawler has some world class wrestlers for training partners and I'm sure it's occurred to him that Shields may want to get it to the ground.

Rogers shouldn't win, but then again, Arlovski shouldn't have jumped chin first into Fedor's fist after kicking his ass for almost an entire round. So basically, barring another suicide attempt from Andrei, he takes this one with superior boxing.

Diaz will have less difficulty in his fight with Smith than I will have in caring about the Randleman/Whitehead bout.
Jeffro- June 4, 2009 at 7:16 am
After seeing th problems that Big Ben and Big Country gave Arlovski, I really think that The Grim has a solid chance.
Fedor vs. Bas- June 4, 2009 at 6:14 am
If Andrei Arlovski loses, his rematch with Fedor will never happen. I almost want to see Brett Rogers destroy him so maybe Fedor will get a new challenger.

And the winners are:

Lawler (KO) Round 2
Arlovski (KO) Round 1
Diaz (Sub) Round 3
Randleman (Dec)
Feijao (Sub) Roun 2
angry little feet- June 4, 2009 at 5:36 am
Jake Shields most certainly does not suck on the ground.
Nick Diaz is not going to lose this fight.
Andrei consistently manages to disappoint me.
Some extra time for debating between Baroni and Riggs is probably the best idea I will hear all damn day.
I am cranky as all hell today.
That's all I have to say.
Cookie Monster- June 3, 2009 at 9:56 pm
jake sucks on the ground?? you suck on the ground....take that
Casa de los pantelones- June 3, 2009 at 8:14 pm
Shields is a character...he is horrible on the ground. His submission attempts are telegraphed to the point where you have to actually fast forward his sub attempts to make them look like he knows what he's doing. Watching him set-up an armbar reminds me of a fat kid trying to get up from a worn out sinky couch.

I hope Smith hits Diaz so hard, his speech impediment goes away, and he loses and finally shuts his retarded mouth.
Dmonicideals- June 3, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I'm still going to murder Spencer, regardless of the outcome of these fights.
EmEmayy- June 3, 2009 at 7:01 pm
@ Beast Unleashed Unlike football as basketball where there are point spreads (ex. -7, +13.5) UFC fights have odds which are called moneylines. A moneyline is basically a way for the sportsbooks to even out the betting public. So for example if Chuck Liddell was fighting a no name guy in his first fight, Liddell would be a HUGE favorite, probably around -4400 or so (44 to 1). If there was no moneyline, you could just bet on the favorite everytime, and become a millionaire pretty quickly.

Lets say in a random matchup, Fighter X is the favorite at -140. This means that for every $1.40 you bet, you win $1. So if you were to bet $140 on Fighter X, you’d win $100 (profit) if he is victorious. Fighter Y would be the underdog in this match at say +120. This means that for every $1 you bet, you will win $1.20. So if you bet $100 on Fighter Y, and he wins, you will win $120 (profit).

Or you could just toss money at whichever dude you think is hotter.
Poo Flinger- June 3, 2009 at 6:55 pm
-OBI "I find Baroni the less 'douchey' of the two of you."

Dang! You know that you are a complete douche when someone can say this about you.
As for my thought on Riggs vs Baroni, I am really hoping for a double KO. But I want it to happen when they are both gassed and throwing weak punches and are really unwilling to get up from the mat. Just sayin'.
common sense- June 3, 2009 at 6:52 pm
why you gotta bet against diaz you cocks. money hungry bitches is what i say.
Cookie Monster- June 3, 2009 at 6:16 pm
jake is gonna choke the shit out of lawler til he makes that weird gargling noise and his puffy ass head pops off....also i think that two 2 minute rounds of formal debate should be added to the riggs/baroni fight between the normal rounds. that might be more interesting than the fight.

Old_Bald_and_Irish- June 3, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Oh shit...I almost forgot...


*sound of me clearing my throat*

WAR RANDLEMAN!
Cathedron- June 3, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Shit. How can anyone bet against Shields with a line like that? How can you parlay a card like this anyway? Geez. You have balls like Rampage's dog.

I will say, the underdog action on Rogers is calling out to me. Rogers has big heavy hands and Arlovski has a little bitty chin. But Scott Smith? Not so much. Diaz has great boxing and would be smart enough to avoid a total slugfest. That's about all Smith can hope for. They both fought only a short time ago, but Smitty took a hell of a beating (as usual).
Swimming with Idiots- June 3, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Smith
Shields
Rogers
Riggs
Cavalcante
Randleman

Write it down.


ben- June 3, 2009 at 5:30 pm
@ BeastUnleashed"+" numbers are the underdogs. You'd have to bet $100 to win that amount of money in profit."-" numbers are the favorites. You'd have to bet that amount of money to win $100 in profit.
Old_Bald_and_Irish- June 3, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Shields is on an 11 fight win streak.

Don't count him out.

That being said, Lawler is plenty dangerous.

This one is a toss up. Smart money doesn't come NEAR this fight.

Ditto on the Baroni/Riggs analyasis. This is all about Baroni. I'm lookin' for the comeback. I hope it happens. I also hope he puts a new hole in Riggs' face.

No offense, Riggs. Its just that, surprisingly, I find Baroni the less 'douchey' of the two of you.

Screw it. I'm a Baroni nuthugger. He's gonna smash ya.
BeastUnleashed- June 3, 2009 at 5:21 pm
I dont know what these numbers mean. Can someone explain???

I never gambled in my life.
hooligun- June 3, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Jay, let the kids parents watch that shit and go see diaz before your balls shrivel up completely. Just sayin.
Jay Smith- June 3, 2009 at 4:59 pm
I live in St. Louis, but will be in Ohio watching my nephew graduate from high school this weekend. Damn my smart relatives!!!! Tickets are only 50 bucks to see this from pretty decent seats too.
TrouserSnout- June 3, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Arlovski should win this fight, but if he doesn't, he is definitely on his way down the slope.....
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