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Gambling Addiction Enabler: Strikeforce – Nashville Edition

(Odds of "King Mo" taking another costly Rockstar bath? Considering that this fight happens right after tax season, call it a longshot.)

Strikeforce invades Nashville this weekend, which means there’ll be plenty of fried food, Elvis worship, and a whopping three title fights to throw your money at. We have some legitimately tough choices to make this time around, so let’s gather all the change we can find from the ashtray of our mother’s Chevy Nova and get serious about this.

Betting lines come to us from

Dan Henderson (-395) vs. Jake Shields (+295)
Gegard Mousasi (-275) vs. “King Mo” Lawal (+215)
Gilbert Melendez (-160) vs. Shinya Aoki (+130)
Jason Miller (-1200) vs. Tim Stout (+700)

The breakdown…

- Henderson is bigger, stronger, and a better striker than Shields. He also has the wrestling chops to keep himself upright, or at least get back to his feet should Shields get him down. That all adds up to bad news for the welterweight currently holding the Strikeforce middleweight strap. This is Henderson’s fight to lose, and I don’t see him doing it.

- Call me crazy, but I think King Mo is the best underdog pick on this card. His takedown ability is going to keep Mousasi off balance, and his strength will present a real problem once they’re on the mat. Either that, or Mousasi will knock him the hell out and we’ll all be reminded that Lawal is still really new to this game. I still like his chances to pull off the upset, though whatever money one bets on him in this fight should immediately be thought of as lost forever, just to keep expectations realistic.

- Since Aoki claims to believe that losing this fight would have serious ramifications for the sovereignty of Japanese MMA, I’m inclined to think he’s really motivated. He has enough unconventional tricks to get the fight to the mat that he should be able to at least get a shot at submitting Melendez, but it’s just a matter of whether he can keep from getting bullied all over the cage. At these odds, I think Aoki’s worth a small risk. And for the record, if I lose my money I am fully prepared to blame it all on the lack of tights.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Henderson + Aoki + Miller. So help me, if “Mayhem” is the one to screw this up, my standing offer to be his personal assistant on “Bully Beatdown” will be permanently rescinded.

Cagepotato Comments

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Lysol- April 15, 2010 at 9:50 am
Honestly, every underdog not fighting Mayhem Miller is worth a $10 for the hell of it bet. It's good to actually have money.
destinationblood- April 15, 2010 at 8:11 am
CAPTION- what makes you think king mo pays taxes??? please playa, he get dat paper, not give it away
onlydaddytouchesmethere- April 15, 2010 at 7:10 am
man ive been stoked about this card for awhile now. if only fedors magical sweater wouldve made an appearance on it
ReX13- April 15, 2010 at 6:38 am
Melendez is favored against a fighter that is generally ranked as #2 in the world at 155--Melendez himself just cracks the Top 10. What am i missing?

Whatever--i'm not putting anything but Potato Chips down on this one, and this fight is the one i'm hedging on. Whoever wins, i'm looking forward to a good fight.

Damn, you guys, Saturday night is gonna be so tits.
mmaniac22- April 15, 2010 at 6:23 am
From where it comes that superiority of strenght by King Mo?? I don't really know, trust me Mousasi is one strongest and much explossive mothafucka.
King Mo just has his wrestling on this, and we know what is capable to do Gegard on his back, ask Jacare...
ghostboner- April 15, 2010 at 1:01 am
@winterblack - amen bra. I would love Aoki vs Diaz.
jimbonics- April 14, 2010 at 10:28 pm
hoooooooey boy! that miller fight reeks of a fix.
cecils_pupils- April 14, 2010 at 8:54 pm
While I would still like to see all the greats from Japan meet their doom in the States, I just don't see that happening here. Even his lack of tights and cage experience won't outweigh his will. He is one bad ass little mofo, and I think his will will carry him though the tough times of this fight provided he's not put to sleep. He really does not want to lose and have Japan "become a U.S. MMA colony". If Aoki can avoid the GnP and secure a limb it's all over.

If Aoki does not win this via sub, it'll be Gilbert via TKO. My money's on Aoki.
ColinL- April 14, 2010 at 8:43 pm
Why Aoki isn't favored:

- Never fought in a cage

- Has been smoked by punchers with takedown defense in the recent past (Hansen and Sakurai)

- Doesn't have his pants

- Melendez trains with Jake Shields and Nick Diaz, who are both outstanding grapplers and submission artists

- Melendez has never been submitted-- although it is fair to say that he hasn't fought many top-level lightweights

I think this one is a pick-em. Melendez has serious advantages in cage experience and style matchup. Aoki is one-dimensional and Meledez on paper can deal with that dimension. The great unknown is how good Melendez is because his resume isn't as impressive.
JCVD as Timecop- April 14, 2010 at 5:15 pm
God I wish I were a gambler; I'd be all over putting money on Aoki.
Winterblack- April 14, 2010 at 5:09 pm
I agree Guapo, and I like how they aren't pussyfooting around with King Mo. Gegard is the toughest test he may ever face and If MO wins, holy fame batman. Lawal wants tough fights?! Be careful what you wish for...especially if he pulls of the upset, because they don't get easier when you have that strap.
Winterblack- April 14, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Shinya is a bad-ass, but you guys are smoking something far better than I if you think he's gonna walk through Gilbert. I have no problem eating crow; so, Aoki fans, man up when he gets pounded out. If Aoki wins or loses, I still wanna see him fight Nick Diaz.
nonfiction- April 14, 2010 at 4:54 pm
I miss Ben F :(
El Guapo- April 14, 2010 at 4:50 pm
That's the thing- I DON'T wanna see Aoki get his ass beat. Watching Mach knee him into oblivion was painful to watch..

Hopefully he doesn't get fouled or we might have to see "My Neck and My Back" starring Shinya Aoki. His acting is almost as bad as Keanu Reeves. Almost.
Murdock- April 14, 2010 at 4:44 pm
belou - the numbers regards to the money needed to win $100 and how much you win if you bet a $100. Negative means the favorite. ex. -1200 on mayhem means you need to bet 1200 to win 100. +700 means if you bet a $100, you win $700. But guys correct me if i'm wrong...I just learned recently too...and yes i'm a newb. have a nice day...suckah

money on aoki...hopefully better performance than his rising sun bro gomi
cecils_pupils- April 14, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Shinya by shin-choke aka gogoplata.
ghostboner- April 14, 2010 at 4:40 pm
Gil is the fav? Dam I thought I was gonna get a good payout when he makes Aoki cry. Last time I saw a -1200 was Overroids last fight.

Official GB parlay - Henderson, Mousasi, Melendez. Just to make it interesting I will say Hendo by late 3rd round ko, Mousasi via 2nd round guillotine, and Melendez via complete brutality.
daeyeth- April 14, 2010 at 4:38 pm
Aoki must be the underdog because of all the people who hate him and are just betting on Melendez because they're deluding themselves into hoping he'll beat Aoki's ass.
El Guapo- April 14, 2010 at 4:35 pm
I like, Shinya-san, I really do. Sick ass submissions and rainbow tights... What's not to like? But the guy hits like dirt weed and I gotta think Gilbert's just too strong and too good a wrestler to get caught in a bad position. We shall see.
PortlandMMA- April 14, 2010 at 4:23 pm
The thing I don't get is that Aoki is ranked above Melendez in every ranking I've ever seen, he even makes a few P4P lists and yet Melendez is the favorite in the fight. I hope Gilbert beats Shinya's ass.
Goat- April 14, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Bet $20 on Miller.

Buy ice cream and beer the next day if you win.
belou- April 14, 2010 at 4:03 pm
I have been looking at odds for some time now, will someboday please explain to me what these numbers mean??
plus, I have never seen a -1200 for any fighter before, are those numbers for real?
daeyeth- April 14, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Shinya Aoki the betting underdog? He's considered a small betting risk? That's ridiculous. People who think Aoki is gonna lose are gonna be in a big surprise...which is sad, because it shouldn't be a surprise. Gilbert's a good fighter. He's not in Aoki's league and you kids are about to find out.
Winterblack- April 14, 2010 at 3:55 pm
KidClam:Ya my improvised, third-grade level math came up with about an $8.25 payout for a $100 bet.
Bigger question is who the F is Tim Stout? Better off chancing this noob(?) with an $8 dollar bet for $56
El Guapo- April 14, 2010 at 3:54 pm
Please don't bet Mayhem straight up. Don't even know you, it's not my money or my business, but damn... Just thinking about that bet shivers me timbers.

King Mo +215 shore is tempting, but I coulda swore prospects were supposed to be protected, not fed to the sharks?? Methinks Moussasi eats him alive