(Odds of "King Mo" taking another costly Rockstar bath? Considering that this fight happens right after tax season, call it a longshot.)

Strikeforce invades Nashville this weekend, which means there’ll be plenty of fried food, Elvis worship, and a whopping three title fights to throw your money at. We have some legitimately tough choices to make this time around, so let’s gather all the change we can find from the ashtray of our mother’s Chevy Nova and get serious about this.

Betting lines come to us from BestFightOdds.com:

Dan Henderson (-395) vs. Jake Shields (+295)
Gegard Mousasi (-275) vs. “King Mo” Lawal (+215)
Gilbert Melendez (-160) vs. Shinya Aoki (+130)
Jason Miller (-1200) vs. Tim Stout (+700)

The breakdown…

- Henderson is bigger, stronger, and a better striker than Shields. He also has the wrestling chops to keep himself upright, or at least get back to his feet should Shields get him down. That all adds up to bad news for the welterweight currently holding the Strikeforce middleweight strap. This is Henderson’s fight to lose, and I don’t see him doing it.

- Call me crazy, but I think King Mo is the best underdog pick on this card. His takedown ability is going to keep Mousasi off balance, and his strength will present a real problem once they’re on the mat. Either that, or Mousasi will knock him the hell out and we’ll all be reminded that Lawal is still really new to this game. I still like his chances to pull off the upset, though whatever money one bets on him in this fight should immediately be thought of as lost forever, just to keep expectations realistic.

- Since Aoki claims to believe that losing this fight would have serious ramifications for the sovereignty of Japanese MMA, I’m inclined to think he’s really motivated. He has enough unconventional tricks to get the fight to the mat that he should be able to at least get a shot at submitting Melendez, but it’s just a matter of whether he can keep from getting bullied all over the cage. At these odds, I think Aoki’s worth a small risk. And for the record, if I lose my money I am fully prepared to blame it all on the lack of tights.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Henderson + Aoki + Miller. So help me, if “Mayhem” is the one to screw this up, my standing offer to be his personal assistant on “Bully Beatdown” will be permanently rescinded.