On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)
If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…
The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.
The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.
The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.
Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.
The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.
The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.