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Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.

The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.

The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.

Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.

Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.

The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.

The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.

Cagepotato Comments

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khembob- April 14, 2013 at 10:46 pm
If you think Mildred`s story is neat,, three weeks-ago my old neighbour also brought home $4031 putting in a 40 hours month an their house and there neighbor's mother`s neighbour has done this for nine months and actually earned over $4031 part time from a pc. the guide available here, FAB33.COM
Get Off Me- April 14, 2013 at 6:37 pm
Oh I see it alright. Great call and please hit up the comments for UFC 159 GAE. I'll be looking for this type of advice, liked the way you gave a reason for the pick...this way like Chael/Silva 1 without the sub...wrestlefuck indeed.
drainplugofideas- April 14, 2013 at 3:20 pm
No one is gonna see this. But I wanna point out that I was totally right about the hall gastulem fight. Sure he didn't win by submission but he did just what I said he would. The lesson is don't buy into a standup fighter until he's proven he can handle a grappler with good takedowns.
Tilly- April 13, 2013 at 7:20 pm
The prelims on Fuel TV were all surprising, but were definitely entertaining. I'm glad that I took the night off from my job at DISH because the main card has been full of surprises. I've been recording all the fights so far because tonight's event will welcome two new fighters to the UFC, and I want that saved forever. My DISH Hopper can save up to 1,250 SD or 450 HD hours of all the fights I record, plus full seasons of my favorite shows, which means I'll never have to pick and choose what to delete in the future to make more recording space.
section1guy- April 12, 2013 at 4:34 pm
Fucking BetUS won't give me an account because I'm from NY? I don't get it.
gdxbcmcg- April 12, 2013 at 11:02 am
If you think Donald`s story is super..., two weaks-ago my brother in law made $8094 workin eighteen hours a week from their apartment and their roomate's step-sister`s neighbour has been doing this for eight months and recieved a check for more than $8094 in there spare time from a computer. apply the tips at this website,
drainplugofideas- April 12, 2013 at 10:43 am
There's no way that Uriah is worth those kinds of odds. He got tired and was almost wrestlefucked by a small welterweight with a rudimentary takedown game. Look for the man named after an absolute temperature measurement to lock up an early takedown wear out the striker on the mat and then choke him out late in 2nd round.
Sopapo- April 11, 2013 at 7:05 pm
Thats fucking AWESOME! good for him, though it probably didn't even bothered him.
Deadpanda- April 11, 2013 at 2:03 pm
@Sopapo smile more dude, the world's too precious to waste time doting on inconsequentials.
El Guapo- April 11, 2013 at 1:57 pm
Gonzaga-Browne should be a pick 'em. That's reason enough to throw Napao in a parlay with Uriah & Urijah, maybe Miller or Tate if you're feeling frisky. Which I am. Which is is why I'm heading to the Foxy Fallon thread.
That's alot of witches.
Fried Taco- April 11, 2013 at 1:55 pm
Uh, yeah, that's why I'm so pale, too. Vitiligo.
J.Jones- April 11, 2013 at 1:14 pm
@Sopapo - It's not photoshop, Jorgensen's vitiligo has almost completely recessed these days:
Sopapo- April 11, 2013 at 1:09 pm
wow ufc photoshped jorgenson's skin. thats fucked up, they can't do that. Its wrong in so many fucking levels