(The word you’re looking for is ‘ouch.’)
The tenth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” may not have been the most memorable, or even terribly entertaining, but there is cause for some celebration. For one thing, it’s over. For another, now we actually get to see more fighting than talking. But I swear to God, if Tiki Ghosn shows up to try and play any pranks on Saturday night, I just might have to throw my TV out the damn window.
Now that I’ve got that out of my system, let’s look at the betting lines for Saturday night’s TUF 10 finale, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Jon Jones (-250) vs. Matt Hamill (+250)
Brendan Schaub (+212) vs. Roy Nelson (-262)
Kimbo Slice (+133) vs. Houston Alexander (-163)
Frankie Edgar (-465) vs. Matt Veach (+385)
Matt Mitrione (+225) vs. Marcus Jones (-285)
Darrill Schoonover (+115) vs. James McSweeney (-145)
Jon Madsen (+265) vs. Justin Wren (-325)
Brian Stann (-120) vs. Rodney Wallace (-110)
John Howard (-240) vs. Dennis Hallman (+190)
Mark Bocek (-360) vs. Joe Brammer (+290)
The breakdown…
- Jon Jones is bigger, faster, and a much better striker than Hamill. That leads me to believe we’ll see “The Hammer” try to return to his wrestling roots, though don’t expect that to save him. Jones was a champion wrestler himself before turning to MMA, so he knows his way around a sprawl. If he wants it on the feet, that’s where it will probably stay. Hamill may have a spinning back elbow with his name on it. I’m taking Jones all the way.
- If you didn’t know anything about MMA and you saw Schaub and “Big Country” standing next to one another with their shirts off, you’d probably think this was a mismatch of criminal proportions. But oddsmakers do know a thing or two about the sport, and clearly they like Nelson to get Schaub on the mat, put that big belly on him (to paraphrase “Rampage” Jackson), and either get a submission or put that crucifix to good use yet again. That’s the likely scenario, though if Schaub can stick and move he might make good use of his height and reach advantage. Plus, it’s not like Nelson’s known for his unstoppable takedowns. You know what? Screw it, I’m taking Schaub. Do I feel especially comfortable with that pick? I do not. But hey, that’s why they call it gambling.
- Even if I didn’t already think that Houston Alexander had a good chance to beat Kimbo Slice, Ferg’s griping about the weight cut and indications that his ATT training camp didn’t go swimmingly would be enough to convince me. We know he’s got a bum knee, and we know that Alexander is the kind of guy who will force you to knock him out or submit him. If you try and hang back, he’ll eat you up. Kimbo hasn’t really starched anyone since Tank Abbott, and unless he’s taken some fast-acting jiu-jitsu pills, he’s not submitting anyone. If Alexander doesn’t freak out and run into a haymaker, he should put Kimbo to sleep.
Quick Picks: Edgar, Wren, Big Baby, and Bocek all look like winners to me. Howard ought to overpower Hallman without much trouble, but “Superman” is crafty, so tread lightly. In the only other slight upset, I’ll take Schoonover to beat McSweeney.
Cage Potato Parlay: Jones + Alexander + Schoonover + Big Baby.
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Nice parlay…JACKASS!