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Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF 11 Finale Edition

(Keith Jardine: The love child of Michael Berryman and this thing. Photo courtesy of ESPN)

You know what time it is, Potato Nation — it’s time to steal some money from your girlfriend’s purse and wire it to a shady off-shore gambling site in the faint hope that A) You’ll win your bets, and B) They’ll eventually send you your profits. Lots of luck, suckers! As tradition dictates, here are the betting lines for Saturday’s TUF 11 Finale, courtesy of 

Court McGee (-180) vs. Kris McCray (+175)
Matt Hamill (-138) vs. Keith Jardine (+125)
Aaron Simpson (-334) vs. Chris Leben (+292)
Spencer Fisher (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+163)
Jamie Yager (-105) vs. Rich Attonito (+105)

John Gunderson (-245) vs. Mark Holst (+285)
Brad Tavares (-205) vs. Seth Baczynski (+200)
Kyle Noke (-185) vs. Josh Bryant (+170)
Chris Camozzi (-125) vs. James Hammortree (even)
Travis Browne (-185) vs. James McSweeney (+155)

So how can we beat the bookmakers on Saturday? Pull up a chair and I’ll lay it all out for you…

The Co-Main Event: That’s right, Hamill vs. Jardine isn’t even headlining this event anymore, which makes sense considering they’re both coming off of ass-kickings. Jardine has lost four out of his last five fights, and is riding back-to-back knockout losses against Thiago Silva and Ryan Bader. If you ask me, the Dean of Mean is drifting into Chuck Liddell territory — his opponents have figured out his moves, and he just can’t avoid being put to sleep. Before running afoul of Jon Jones, Hamill was turning in some great performances, scoring impressive stoppage victories against Reese Andy and Mark Munoz. He may not be the phenom that Bones is, but he certainly has the wrestling ability and striking power to dominate Jardine. Anything under -200 makes sense for him; -138 is a freakin’ steal.

The TUF Guys: All the betting lines for the TUF 11 castmates are disappointingly logical. The indestructible Court McGee deserves to be a solid favorite in the main event, and Yager/Attonito is basically a pick ‘em — unless you think Yager will crumble again, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. The only compelling line I see is Josh Bryant’s +170 against Kyle Noke. As skilled and experienced as Noke is, he was smothered on the show by Kris McCray, whose skill-set is very similar to Bryant’s. I say, throw down a few chips on Bryant for the upset.

The Good ‘Dogs: James McSweeney‘s +155 line is worth noting. Sure, Travis Browne has looked like an absolute beast against low-level competition, but he’s a first-timer, and McSweeney has had the luxury of training with some of the best fighters in the world at Jackson’s MMA. He won’t be a pushover like Abe Wagner or Aaron Brink. I also like Dennis Siver, who’s a terror when he’s on his game, and Mark Holst, who doesn’t deserve to be such a big ‘dog against a guy who hasn’t yet proven himself in the UFC.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $25 on Hamill
– $15 on McGee/Simpson/Tavares parlay
– $5 on Bryant
– $5 on either McSweeney or Siver or Holst

Cagepotato Comments

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ghostboner- June 16, 2010 at 11:56 pm
@Goat - I enjoyed your comment, fyi.
fatbellyfrank- June 16, 2010 at 11:11 pm
And we love you Drano, just keep an eye on the grappling skills, and tell me what you think ( if you dont mind of course)
dranokills- June 16, 2010 at 9:59 pm
Jamie Yager (-105) vs. Rich Attonito (+105)

talk all the shit you want about yager, vegas ain't stupid they do this for a living. far as I'm concerned it validates everything I feel is going to happen.

I gotta pick Noke as well.....those 2 are, were, and still are my 2 favs. I got love for my Australian brethren ( at heart)
Almost North- June 16, 2010 at 6:16 pm
You guys should go easy on McSweeny, its not easy to be the son of Mr Potato Head and the three legged stray dog that eats out of my neighbors trash.
fatbellyfrank- June 16, 2010 at 5:51 pm
Very broad statement here, and no numbers to back it up, just observation. As much as it hurts to say it, I'd say if you have an aussie fighter against a good grappler who has a base in collegiate wrestling, our guys will struggle, we dont have the college wrestling programme you guys have over there, so our guys ,broad generalisation here dont have the ground game that a young American/Canadian fighter would have.
I would suggest the majority of Aussie MMA fighters started from a muay thai kickboxing background, Goerge Sotiropolous obviously being an exception. So yeah, maybe Bryant might be worth a flutter.
Tai-Pan- June 16, 2010 at 5:39 pm
Since when is Aaron Simpson worth -334? He should of lost a 10-8 round to Lawler for christ sake. Say what you want about Leben but the dude has a strong enough chin to blast this idiot into the next dimension. Other than that I see no real good upset makers.
Jim Harbaugh Scramble- June 16, 2010 at 5:06 pm
Nice post.

I agree with you on the Hammer. Easy money, he will have no problem with Sardine.

Bryant looks like a safe bet as well, Noke won't be able to stop the takedown.

But, I think you are wrong on McSweeny. He hasn't fought anyone either outside of TUF. He got friggin TKO'd by Al-Turk. IF you can't beat Al Turk who can you beat?

McSweeny is not UFC caliber, he was smart to suck up to Rashad and get that contract but he isn't skilled enough to last.
2DaDeath- June 16, 2010 at 5:01 pm
The only betting I've done for this event is with virtual potato chips, but I would feel safe putting $20 on Leben.
steampunk22- June 16, 2010 at 4:18 pm
With Leben it ultimately comes down to how much he has allowed himself to expand his game and more importantly, his patience. When he gets frustrated he starts swinging for the fences with lazy, misguided haymakers that everyone can see coming a mile away. If he has learned to bide his time a bit, use his strength for throws and takedowns, he's got a halfway decent chance.

Still wouldn't bet on him though. ;)
pinkyslayer- June 16, 2010 at 4:04 pm
hammill is not gonna gas out.

2DaDeath- June 16, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Gotta disagree with u MMA$Line.

Between the 2 vet's, Leben is a safer bet than Jardine. And at the above mentioned numbers, he's a much better bet too. Jardine's chin has been worked pretty good lately and Hammill has heavy hands. Leben, on the other hand, is still durable and still dangerous.
Socal Tot- June 16, 2010 at 3:10 pm
WTF is Jamie Yager doing on this card or any other UFC card? He quit for no good reason other than lack of heart. He tapped out on the stool! I mean, his hair is really cool and all, but I can't believe the UFC powers that be are doing this. Surely another fighter is more deserving. Rich Attonito- it is your duty to make things right. Knock this bum out. Or better yet, make him quit again. Jaime Quitter. Jaime "All hair, no heart" Yager.
2DaDeath- June 16, 2010 at 3:10 pm

That comment was directed to some other dick, actually. The butt fangered one.
Dick_Misanthropenis- June 16, 2010 at 3:06 pm
@ TubaDeaf

You Rang?
2DaDeath- June 16, 2010 at 2:52 pm
See. Just as I mentioned before. Travis is not gonna have an easy tie with McSweeney. Dick.
justscrappin- June 16, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Wow have made me look at it in a completely different way. I actually forgot how great it is when he wakes up and furrows his brow to say " wha..wha...what happened?" to the ref. That is a precious memory in my book.
glassjawsh- June 16, 2010 at 2:32 pm
there is nothing better than settling down in my EZ chair, cracking open a 40 of king cobra, warming up the Sylvannia TV and watching the techno viking take a pounding that'd make your momma blush. good help me i love it
MMAMoneyLine- June 16, 2010 at 2:24 pm
I think Holst is going to put serious foot to ass...getting him at +280 is like robbing a bank.

Jardine wins a decision over a gassed Hamill. He was on his way to winning a decision over Bader before getting caught. Jardine's takedown defense is underrated and I don't think Matt Hamill is as much of a finisher as his miracle head kick would suggest.
justscrappin- June 16, 2010 at 2:21 pm
I want to see Jardine fight about as bad as I want to see my penis detached from my body and waved in front of my face....only to be disgarded and claimed forever by dick_misanthropenis.
ghostboner- June 16, 2010 at 2:17 pm
The Dean of Mean will rise again. I hope. I think Siver is the most enticing underdog here. Definitely worth a $10 risk. If I had ten dollars.
Soda Popinski- June 16, 2010 at 2:05 pm
The utmost of importance for me on this card is McSweeney getting beat.

Is there anybody in the MMA community that can truly say they've never been tempted to say McWeenie?

Nut Puncher 9000- June 16, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Seth Baczynski at +200 is worth a wager.
Shaky- June 16, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Respect on the Aphex Twin link
Considering all the money I've been losing on MMA bets (i.e Pat Barry)
That is all
Sakuraba3900- June 16, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Well... Jardine has no chin and he has a habit of losing when it counts... not that this is a big fight or anything but the thing is that hes lost a quite a few of his recent fights and that being said two things will happen (or should if it was any other fighter that for some unknown reason the UFC adores) if he loses:

1. He will be dropped down to the dark portions of fights and risk losing a lot of money in sponsorship cash

or the worst case

2. He gets cut from the UFC

Im puttin my money on the toughest deaf man alive.
whitey- June 16, 2010 at 1:50 pm
HAPPY BIRTHDAY MIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!