You know what time it is, Potato Nation — it’s time to steal some money from your girlfriend’s purse and wire it to a shady off-shore gambling site in the faint hope that A) You’ll win your bets, and B) They’ll eventually send you your profits. Lots of luck, suckers! As tradition dictates, here are the betting lines for Saturday’s TUF 11 Finale, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com
Court McGee (-180) vs. Kris McCray (+175)
Matt Hamill (-138) vs. Keith Jardine (+125)
Aaron Simpson (-334) vs. Chris Leben (+292)
Spencer Fisher (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+163)
Jamie Yager (-105) vs. Rich Attonito (+105)
John Gunderson (-245) vs. Mark Holst (+285)
Brad Tavares (-205) vs. Seth Baczynski (+200)
Kyle Noke (-185) vs. Josh Bryant (+170)
Chris Camozzi (-125) vs. James Hammortree (even)
Travis Browne (-185) vs. James McSweeney (+155)
So how can we beat the bookmakers on Saturday? Pull up a chair and I’ll lay it all out for you…
The Co-Main Event: That’s right, Hamill vs. Jardine isn’t even headlining this event anymore, which makes sense considering they’re both coming off of ass-kickings. Jardine has lost four out of his last five fights, and is riding back-to-back knockout losses against Thiago Silva and Ryan Bader. If you ask me, the Dean of Mean is drifting into Chuck Liddell territory — his opponents have figured out his moves, and he just can’t avoid being put to sleep. Before running afoul of Jon Jones, Hamill was turning in some great performances, scoring impressive stoppage victories against Reese Andy and Mark Munoz. He may not be the phenom that Bones is, but he certainly has the wrestling ability and striking power to dominate Jardine. Anything under -200 makes sense for him; -138 is a freakin’ steal.
The TUF Guys: All the betting lines for the TUF 11 castmates are disappointingly logical. The indestructible Court McGee deserves to be a solid favorite in the main event, and Yager/Attonito is basically a pick ‘em — unless you think Yager will crumble again, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. The only compelling line I see is Josh Bryant’s +170 against Kyle Noke. As skilled and experienced as Noke is, he was smothered on the show by Kris McCray, whose skill-set is very similar to Bryant’s. I say, throw down a few chips on Bryant for the upset.
The Good ‘Dogs: James McSweeney‘s +155 line is worth noting. Sure, Travis Browne has looked like an absolute beast against low-level competition, but he’s a first-timer, and McSweeney has had the luxury of training with some of the best fighters in the world at Jackson’s MMA. He won’t be a pushover like Abe Wagner or Aaron Brink. I also like Dennis Siver, who’s a terror when he’s on his game, and Mark Holst, who doesn’t deserve to be such a big ‘dog against a guy who hasn’t yet proven himself in the UFC.
Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $25 on Hamill
– $15 on McGee/Simpson/Tavares parlay
– $5 on Bryant
– $5 on either McSweeney or Siver or Holst