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Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF 8 Finale


(Phillipe just has to finish up some nurse shit, then he’ll be right in to kick your ass.  Thanks for your patience.)

Trying to come up with odds on guys who most of us have only seen fight under very specific circumstances has got to be a difficult job.  For all we know, maybe John Polakowski really is "a mean guy" in the Octagon, and maybe Dave Kaplan only looked bad because he went with the ill-advised, "block with your face" strategy that he now knows is a mistake.  We just can’t be sure.

Fortunately internet bookies feel they are up to the task of sorting out all the woulda-coulda stuff, and as a result we can still throw our money away on Saturday night’s Spike TV TUF 8 Finale show.  Below are the best odds in town, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.

Efrain Escudero (+334) vs. Phillipe Nover (-364)
Vinicius Magalhaes (-165) vs. Ryan Bader (+160)
Jason MacDonald (+119) vs. Wilson Gouveia (-125)
Anthony Johnson (-225) vs. Kevin Burns (+205)
Dave Kaplan (+322) vs. Junie Browning (-325)
Krzysztof Soszynski (-345) vs. Shane Primm (+315)
Eliot Marshall (-551) vs. Jules Bruchez (+501)
Kyle Kingsbury (-116) vs. Tom Lawlor (+106)
George Roop (EVEN) vs. Shane Nelson (-108)
John Polakowski (-122) vs. Roli Delgado (+112)

Thoughts…

- The line seems about right on Bader-Magalhaes, but oddsmakers seem to think that lightweight final isn’t even close.  While I think it’s Nover’s fight to lose, the odds would have you think it’s as easy to call as Mir-Nogueira.

- I honestly don’t see Gouveia as the favorite over MacDonald.  Yes, MacDonald got subbed by Maia, but Gouveia is no Maia.  He was getting his ass beat by Ryan Jensen of all people before Jensen got careless.  Gouveia is a constant submissions threat, but MacDonald had to learn something from the Maia fight.  He’s more well-rounded, more physically gifted, and I think he takes this one.

- Eye poke or no, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson did not look spectacular in his first fight with Burns.  He got dotted up on the feet, and his takedowns were effective but didn’t lead to much.  He still seems like the better all-around fighter, and more of a threat to end the fight at any point, but it could be a lot more competitive than the odds reflect.

- And the closest fight of the night will be…George Roop vs. Shane Nelson?  Jesus.  That’s not very encouraging, is it?  The rest of the TUF consolation fights look like squash matches to oddsmakers, and I can’t say I disagree.  K-Sos seems to me like the easiest lock in the prelims, but somehow Eliot Marshall gets that honor here.  That’s got to be seen as more of an indictment of Jules Bruchez’s ability than praise of Marshall’s.  Sorry, Jules.


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gvd- December 15, 2008 at 2:04 am
lol great to see all your predictions were wrong.
Earl Jones Jr.- December 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm
@ Woody

The money line works the same for all sports; UFC, football, basketball, whatever...

If a fighter or team is +150, it's bet 10 to win 15. If a fighter or team is -150, it's bet 15 to win 10.
Woody- December 13, 2008 at 8:29 am
So I know I'm gonna get bashed for asking this but how do bet lines work for UFC with the numbers and what not. I understand them for basketball and football but don't quite understand them for UFC, I've asked others and they didn't know either so I have to look like an idiot now and ask on here.
Rwhit- December 13, 2008 at 5:32 am
What?..... Wow! Holy shit, man! That printer really is popping a wheelie.
Whisper- December 13, 2008 at 2:58 am
I'm going to go out on a limb on two fights: A. K-Sos over Primm and 2) Eliot Marshall over Jules Bruchez.
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 5:40 pm
underdogs winners will be kaplan roop and mcdonald
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Wow this site is fucking pathetic, been like 2 weeks and they still have the same "Fight of the Week" up.

How many retarded faggots are working for this site.
Emo Sux- December 12, 2008 at 1:19 pm
LOL!!! The picture caption rules!!!!
relentless boner- December 12, 2008 at 1:14 pm
kaplan equals solid chin, impossible to get knocked out.
junie equals marathon runner of mma.
their fight equals greateest mma fight ever.
I equal giant pothead who smoked himself retarded.
On the real this is a joke UFC most dominat fighting org out there and they have these clowns fighting in it ,they both suck and both should just eat mass jizzed sushi and suck eachother off.
Geriatric Peon- December 12, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Junie is a head case but I wouldn't say he has poor submissions. Kaplan is probably the underdog because he has shown that he is a very stupid fighter. So you have a crazy dude who is suppose to be on the straight and narrow now and a dude who lets you punch him in the face to show you how tough he is.
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Seriously, some of these odds are bummy.

Vinny has a good chance of beating Bader, but I would pick Bader more times than not. He doesn't have great stand-up but it's better than Vinny's.

And why the hell is Junie favourite over Kaplan. Kaplan is a very solid fighter. Good stand-up, excellent wrestling, excellent cardio. Junie has poor wrestling, poor submissions and average stand-up. Plus, he's a screw job and can't handle pressure.
Earl Jones Jr.- December 12, 2008 at 11:56 am
Mark Munoz, Manny Pacquiao, now...Phillipe Nover! They say these things come in 3's.

Pillipe has a puture of pame and portune. He will pulpill the pantasies of the Pilipino people. War Pilipino!
Dr.- December 12, 2008 at 11:54 am
That's one kickass printer. My shit doesn't bust wheelies like that.
Dr.- December 12, 2008 at 11:53 am
I hope Jules does more than sluggishly walking around the octagon without throwing more than the odd defensive jab.

They're pretty much feeding Jules to Marshall. But I hope Jules does do what he said he'd do against Vinny and go across the octagon and punch him in the face.
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 11:51 am
ROFL @ EJJ.

Instant classic.
Myke O.- December 12, 2008 at 11:46 am
is that printer doing a wheeley???? how is it sitting up like that? weird!
Big Mac Iraq- December 12, 2008 at 11:40 am
Every TUF contestant this season knows that Junie has no gas tank. I am dropping a bundle on Kaplan. Kaplan learned to not fight stupid, and He'll drag Junie into deep water and beat his face in.

Bank on it!
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 11:32 am
Why is it that Burns is always the underdog?
Sigh; KB by arm triangle in the second.
just some dong- December 12, 2008 at 11:25 am
yeah Kaplan just has to frustrate junie for a few rounds to break him. if he's smart he's definitely thinking to take advantage of junie's mental instability. that's how efrain got him - frustrated him on the feet so he could get him in a bad position on the ground, where he'd be likely to quit. Really smart actually... I don't think efrain will beat nover but I kinda hope he does.

So yeah kaplan could win, but I'm betting he won't becuase he's too much of an ego maniac to play it smart. He'll come right at Junie and that won't work out so well.

bet the farm on Bruchez!!!

SpaceAlias- December 12, 2008 at 11:14 am
Nover's printer is poppin' a wheelie.
DDT- December 12, 2008 at 10:44 am
I would bet on Kaplan just because I think Junie is a head case and stands a good chance of melting down in the ring when he see's the huge crowd and realizes that this is his biggest fight ever.
Sideshow- December 12, 2008 at 10:39 am
I know Kaplan is an idiot but Junie is a psycho. who would bet him @ -325?!?
Hack job- December 12, 2008 at 10:36 am
shit i'll throw a bean on Junie. does anyone think Kaplan can take junie?
Anonymous- December 12, 2008 at 10:24 am
Hopefully when Jules gets caught in an armbar in the first minute he doesn't pull a Al-Hassan and let it snap. Just tap man.
JimmyOzone- December 12, 2008 at 10:21 am
betting wise i like the hugger over the wet noodle.......FIRE THE CANNONS!!!!
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