(Another installment in the series: Situations That Would Be Terrifying in Prison.)
It’s finally time for the big show and some big bets, which means all the money we’ve saved not paying our court-mandated child support is really going to prove useful. Not that you need the thrill of online wagering to get you pumped for a fight card this big. Sort of like how you don’t need to drink to have a good time. But as long as the option exists…
Our odds today come from BestFightOdds.com:
Brock Lesnar (-220) vs. Frank Mir (+201)
Georges St. Pierre (-285) vs. Thiago Alves (+280)
Jon Fitch (-400) vs. Paulo Thiago (+377)
Dan Henderson (-205) vs. Michael Bisping (+190)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-237) vs. Alan Belcher (+220)
Stephan Bonnar (-320) vs. Mark Coleman (+300)
Jim Miller (-164) vs. Mac Danzig (+160)
Jon Jones (-400) vs. Jake O’Brien (+350)
Dong Hyun Kim (-250) vs. TJ Grant (+250)
CB Dollaway (-205) vs. Tom Lawlor (+205)
Matt Grice (-125) vs. Shannon Gugerty (even)
So where’s our money going?
- When we look at Mir and Alves as underdogs in the co-main event, we see guys who basically have one shot to win (surprise submission and one-punch KO, respectively) but with both of them it’s one shot that can happen at any time up until some referee with a stupid mustache steps in and stops the fight. In other words, they don’t need to be winning or be in control to win; they just need an opening and a little luck. You can bet on that if you want, but Lesnar is too powerful and GSP too seasoned. We’ll save it for the parlay.
- Should Jon Fitch beat Paulo Thiago’s ass like he stole something? Absolutely. Then again, we thought the same thing about Koscheck vs. Thiago. That still doesn’t mean Thiago will win this, but he’s going off at nearly 4-1 and, what the hell, it’s UFC 100. The Bet: $20 on Thiago.
- As far as an underdog we actually have some faith in, it’s hard not to like Alan Belcher at +220 against an Octagon newbie in Akiyama. Few foreign fighters do well their first fight in the UFC, and Belcher exploited that once already against Denis Kang. We like his chances to do it again. The Bet: $20 on Belcher.
Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Jon Jones. Jake O’Brien has wrestling and nothing else. He won’t be able to take “Bones” down and is going to get smashed if it stays on the feet. We’re expecting some highlight-reel stuff out of this one, and O’Brien is going to be on the business end.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: GSP + Lesnar + Bonnar + Jones + Dollaway. Take it to the bank and tell ‘em the Bens sent ya, son.