(Another installment in the series: Situations That Would Be Terrifying in Prison.)
It’s finally time for the big show and some big bets, which means all the money we’ve saved not paying our court-mandated child support is really going to prove useful. Not that you need the thrill of online wagering to get you pumped for a fight card this big. Sort of like how you don’t need to drink to have a good time. But as long as the option exists…
Our odds today come from BestFightOdds.com:
Brock Lesnar (-220) vs. Frank Mir (+201)
Georges St. Pierre (-285) vs. Thiago Alves (+280)
Jon Fitch (-400) vs. Paulo Thiago (+377)
Dan Henderson (-205) vs. Michael Bisping (+190)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-237) vs. Alan Belcher (+220)
Stephan Bonnar (-320) vs. Mark Coleman (+300)
Jim Miller (-164) vs. Mac Danzig (+160)
Jon Jones (-400) vs. Jake O’Brien (+350)
Dong Hyun Kim (-250) vs. TJ Grant (+250)
CB Dollaway (-205) vs. Tom Lawlor (+205)
Matt Grice (-125) vs. Shannon Gugerty (even)
So where’s our money going?
- When we look at Mir and Alves as underdogs in the co-main event, we see guys who basically have one shot to win (surprise submission and one-punch KO, respectively) but with both of them it’s one shot that can happen at any time up until some referee with a stupid mustache steps in and stops the fight. In other words, they don’t need to be winning or be in control to win; they just need an opening and a little luck. You can bet on that if you want, but Lesnar is too powerful and GSP too seasoned. We’ll save it for the parlay.
- Should Jon Fitch beat Paulo Thiago’s ass like he stole something? Absolutely. Then again, we thought the same thing about Koscheck vs. Thiago. That still doesn’t mean Thiago will win this, but he’s going off at nearly 4-1 and, what the hell, it’s UFC 100. The Bet: $20 on Thiago.
- As far as an underdog we actually have some faith in, it’s hard not to like Alan Belcher at +220 against an Octagon newbie in Akiyama. Few foreign fighters do well their first fight in the UFC, and Belcher exploited that once already against Denis Kang. We like his chances to do it again. The Bet: $20 on Belcher.
Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Jon Jones. Jake O’Brien has wrestling and nothing else. He won’t be able to take “Bones” down and is going to get smashed if it stays on the feet. We’re expecting some highlight-reel stuff out of this one, and O’Brien is going to be on the business end.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: GSP + Lesnar + Bonnar + Jones + Dollaway. Take it to the bank and tell ‘em the Bens sent ya, son.
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Comments
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:00
I think people are giving Lesnar a little too much credit. I think you have it a little backwards. You say Mir has one shot to win, I think Lesnar has one shot to win: plow into him until they are both on the ground and then donkey kong vigorously until the ref stops it. I think Mir could very well outstrike him and he sure as hell is dangerous on the ground. I think Mir has a very good chance of winning.. again. Lesnar has had more time to train and improve, but I doubt that means were going to see anything different than the first time.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:02
I understand Lesnar is built like a silverback gorilla, but aren't those odds a little ridiculous considering he's already suffered a loss to his opponent? Obviously, Mir is clearly outmatched strengthwise, but isn't skill and experience a big notch in his favor?
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:06
Both Mir/Lesnar & GSP/Alves is a toss up. If Alves comes in at weight, he may be leaving with the belt. I just have this feeling. Too strong. Too fast. Can't be taken down easily. Super Dangerous on his feet and will pick you apart with leg kicks.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:09
I see everyone's staying away from the Hendo fight, but surely it's easy money!?!??!! Bisping is such a can right!?!?!?!
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:10
Same thing happened with Faber v. Brown 2 didn't it? Although I am a bit surprised to see it here because Mir was hella dominant over Nog (regardless of what injuries it is speculated Nog was suffering from). Also a bit surprised to see Bonnar as such a huge favorite in his fight against Coleman, granted he should be the favorite but he hasn't been all that impressive in his last fights. Coleman looked pretty rough too I guess lol.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:16
I don't know why everyone thinks Lesnar will Ground and Pound Mir into a tko, he's never showed damaging gnp ever. He only finished randy because of a standing strike. This is Mir's fight to lose by being ko'd on the feet or lay and prayed on (like the herring fight). Mir probably has better striking and will sub Brock on the ground. Also I would have put that $20 on Coleman, not Paulo Thiago . Coleman has only lost to top 5 guys ever since fighting in pride and he doesn't do half bad. And this time around Coleman will be more used to the weight cut.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:21
You know CP your "Absolutely Don’t Bet Against" is the kiss of death, I wish you hadn't mentioned Bones Jones, he'll probably have a seizure or something now...
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:33
Brock is going to destroy Mir standing up. Just like the first fight. On the ground it's a little different but standing up, just like Joe Rogan said, "If Mir wants to stand and bang with that huge gorilla, then hes going to get fucking smashed!"
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:39
First time poster, long time reader, so hi. I usually see eye to eye with you when it comes to blowing my money, but not this time around. First, Mir seems like one of the best bets -- he's looked fantastic, has already survived Lesnar (ref garbage aside, he did pull out a sub after getting pummeled, and he's a tough dude aside). No matter how you slice it, he has a lot in his favor, and as a big underdog, you have to take that bet (more than Paulo Thiago, who is going to lose by atomic wedgie). I mean, the fact is, Couture hung with the guy, and I'd guess Mir has comparable strength to the old man. I'm taking GSP over Alves, but I think even Alves is also a better bet than Thiago. I like GSP and am nervous for him, which is probably a good sign for Alves. I also like Bisping, but that's only because he's nobility.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:44
CP, I love ya, but this is terrible advice IMO. The only sound reasoning in this article is the Akiyama vs. Belcher matchup. I see major flaws in the logic used for all other pointers.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:48
That parlay is money in the bank.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:49
I think Lesner leaves the octagon with a broken arm. How fuckin awesome would that be?
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:53
Am I crazy that I bet $25 on O'Brien? Am I the only one not sold on Jones? I put another $25 on Bisping, but that's entirely based on me expecting bullshit of some variety. I can't say how it'll happen, but I kind of feel like he's going to get the W
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:53
Also, who is the guy in the middle of the picture up top?
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:53
I think everyone just needs to eye poke the shit outta each other. A true test of skill
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:58
Bisping is easy money. He will win. He'll prance around the Octagon and pepper Dan with weak strikes. Just enough to notch points with the judges. Dan is too freakin' stubborn to take a guy down when he's losing the striking game. When a normal wrestler is getting picked apart on the feet they say, "I need to get this fight to the ground." When Dan is getting outstruck, he says, "I gotta find a way to outstrike this guy." I praying Dan knocks Bisping into the 13th row, but try as I might, I can only see this going to Bisping in a frustrating and lackluster decision.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:02
@Jugger: You think Bisping can do more with that gameplan than Franklin? I see Franklin as a better version of Bisping (better grappler/kicks/power) and that's basically what Franklin tried to do with Hendo and he lost a split decision. I think Bisping has a harder time dealing with Hendo's strength. Bisping had the same plan against Leben.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:06
Max, you realize Hendo has never won a single fight by submission, right? Let alone a triangle, which means he'd have to be on the bottom. If that fight actually ends like that, I promise, I'll nail my eyelids to a cliff and jump off of it.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:06
I understand Brocks power's a big danger. I still call Mir to win. Brock isn't experienced enough. I don't think he has seen enough talented submission guys to know how to avoid intelligent locks. Mir is a very good submission guy, and Brocks anger could cloud his senses leaving him open for something. That being said, one good punch could cave in Mirs head. No submission block for that. A previous post I mentioned my reasoning for taking GSP over Alves. If Alves can win, it will be in the first two rounds. GSP is to smart and to well rounded now to be easily beaten by a rushing power puncher who has such a short reach. Hendo will show Bisping some wrestling he never knew existed. He has a strikers chance, but hendo has a good chin. If things start going the wrong way striking in the 1st round Hendo will just take Bisping down early. Hendo by triangle in the second round. Fitch schools Thiago. GSP might have pointed out some flaws in Fitchs striking game, but Thiago is no GSP, and Fitch has probably learned a lot from that fight. Coleman's my long shot.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:07
i gotta go with CP here..all the fights are going to be nuts and close as hell, but thats where id put my money.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:08
Mir beat nog with one combo thrown over and over again that nog couldn't respond to. Lesnar will beat him. Bj Penn is lazy and in 3 years of training won a BJJ title. Surely with brocks work ethic and athleticism and strength he could train and get pretty descent sub defense. He has had like a full year!
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:09
Yea saying Hendo will win by triangle is just fucking dumb. I will do the same Jugger hahaha.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:09
I hope the Jones fight makes it onto the show. And while I agree that Lesnar does have enough power and enought speed to KO Frank on the feet, I think people are getting carried away about how good he is. This isn't exactly like the Brown/Faber II fight, as brock was at least in control of the fight up until the end, it's closer to a rematch of Koscheck and Thiago (in the world where Thiago that puts a beating on Fitch in this upcomming fight). If you can follow that comparison.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:10
yea, ya gotta like Mir with those odds. Everything else is good - Coleman has no chance at all in lasting 3 rounds, so that'd be my absolutely do not bet against pick. And what's the deal, you copped out on making a hendo v. bisping pick
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:13
@Jugger: I didn't realize it was never, but I knew it wasn't his usual methods. However I do see Bisping as being susceptible to it trying to escape on the ground. I think Bisping will panic with Hendo on the ground and basically fall into it. I see it happening with Hendo on top and about to mount when Bisping gets free by pulling his body towards Hendos back tries to reverse and gets caught as Hendo turns with him. It may not be the 'odds on' outcome for sure. But I think Bispings awkward ground game could result in an odd ending.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:16
Koeikan, Franklin won that fight. Ask him. LOL. On a serious note... I see your point, but I think Bisping has a striking style that is more adept to counter-striking. Rich throws those awkward looping strikes and doesn't get out of the pocket quick enough. Bisping throws much more technical strikes and has faster hand speed than Rich. Just my opinion, though. Again, I hope I'm wrong. Bisping is saying in his interviews that he's going to be the "first person to ever knock out Dan Henderson." Bwahahaha... No, he'll be the 5th person to decision him. 17 of Dan's 24 wins have been decisions. He's not a great finisher and we all know that the judges LOVE Bisping. Just another anomaly.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:17
Alves has no chance, please everyone get off his nuts. I really hope Hendo doesn't lose to Bisping either I hate that guy. Not sure who i like in the battle of the douche bags between Mir and Lesnar. My mind tells me that good technique always beats power but I think Cock Chestner is the exception to the rule. I got Lesnar, GSP, Fitch, Hendo, Belcher (thats right even though Akiyama is a beast), Bonnar, Miller, Jones, TJ Grant, Dollaway, and Shannon Gugerty.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:23
I thought you meant arm triangle from the top. I think that would make more sense. For the big fights I'm picking Hendo, GSP/Alves I'm 49% 51% in gsp's favor just barely, and Mir. Then again Hughes did have a succesful takedown on Alves.. but then again Kos didn't get any.. that is a really tough one to call. I'm going with gsp via mixing his strikes with takedowns so fluidly that Alvez gets caught off gaurd and taken down. That's what makes gsp so hard to fight.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:24
I must say, the betting logic is flawed here. You say your looking for a live dog, yet pass on Mir at + 200, against a guy HE ALREADY BEAT, to take a 4 to 1 dog thats going to get smashed. Champions...+200, with a win against said opponent= LIVE UNDERDOG......Mir by broken gorrilla appendage....
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:30
The main thing that has me picking GSP is his fight with Fitch. Fitch is talented, smart, in shape, the whole 9... and GSP just destroyed him. Alves has power and impressed the daylights out of me when he finished Karo, but I still see him being way too young and inexperienced to do much to GSP. His mass may end up haunting him in the later rounds too. GSP will frustrate Alves with all sort a' weird stuff he's never had to deal with in the Octagon... GSP by TKO (GnP) late in the 4th.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:30
Yup that as well would be more likely. This is why I initially just said triangle. That way if it doesn't go exactly as I thought, I still look right. Again though, I predict an odd ending to that fight ( if it doesn't just go to the judges that is ). I dunno, I just see it get to the ground and be one of those fights where you just didn't see it coming to an end like it does...kinda like that Matt Hamill fight against Munoz. Who would have predicted that? If that f'ed ending to the bisping hendo fight I'll be the guy that called it :P
Thu, 07/09/09 - 10:54
Boy that War Machine keeps snapping away on that camera. Next time he'll have a shirtless Junie Browning expo.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 11:20
hehe...another winner with caption CP.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 11:29
With those odds, a bet on Coleman is tempting, but I really hate seeing either guy lose.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 11:42
just a note about bookies- other factors go into these odds other than stats of fighters. Always remember- bookies minimize losses- if some underdog is getting hit up for bets big time- then they sweeten the deal on the other side and lower the reward on that side
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:14
Say, if Alves comes in over 170 and it's ruled a non-title fight, would that affect the bets that have been placed on that fight? Anywho, I got $20 on each of these fools: Lesnar, GSP, Bisping, Belcher, Fitch, Coleman. (Bonnar is shit at fighting.)
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:37
Frank Mir will again be "THE" Heavyweight champion of the world via DEATH!!!! No but really Mir will shock the world this saturday night by KO'n the great white hype! Want to make a killing bet on Mir. Want to lose some dough bet on Alves!
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:41
Wait, don't you usually rip on "great white hopes" when they fight nonwhite fighters?
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:42
Lesnar by gogoplata. Write it down bitches
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:53
What's the difference there Patricks brother? All I am sayin is Brock (all be it that he is huge, and talented, and very athletic) has been hyped, is being hyped and will AGAIN lose to Mr. Mir.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 12:54
Rascist bastard!!!!!!
Thu, 07/09/09 - 01:01
Also have to add I really don't like the Jon Jones bet. I'd like Jones better as underdog against someone he's supposed to lose to then as a favorite I know almost nothing about. Otherwise it's just not worth the money.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 01:37
Mir really showed how much of an ass he was as a coach on TUF, and he reinforces that fact every time he opens his cockslot. After hearing Mir talk all kinds of shit about how he will own Lesnar standing up, I really want to see him get one-punched and have his eyes flip around in his head like the wheels on an old-school slot machine.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 02:33
Careful Ricardo, or Bisping will squirt water at you.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 02:49
i just want to see good clean fights without any bullshit stoppages.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 02:51
also, anyone nicknamed 'pitbull' or a cock tattoo needs to be beaten for their bad taste.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 03:19
how is mark coleman +300 against Stephan fucking Bonnar?
Thu, 07/09/09 - 03:26
I dont see how Mir can even put Brock in submission territory. If BL wants to keep it on the feet, what can Mir do? Nogs looked slow as christmas and its hard to fathom how quick and long BLs punches are. If brock is smart, he keeps it standing until they get to the 3rd, 4th rounds, and then when Mir dont have enough shit in his pants to land a submission. He can then start slinging him around the ring like he did Herring. That being said, Id like to see Mir open up a huge gash on BLs head, just to see how he reacts
Thu, 07/09/09 - 03:44
Fucking stupid. Mir kos brock in the second. GSP will win by Decision. Hendo via Knockout. THiago bet gay. Bonnar loses. Jones wins
Thu, 07/09/09 - 06:28
I think betting against Mir is stupid territory. Brock will do what he did last time and lose his focus and temper when he cannot take a folding metal chair to Mir and completely forget his game plan and try to rush him. His technique is shit and he relies on his massive body to win, which obviously doesn't work on Mir. I see Lesnar's chances at winning being left in the category of giant KO, which Mir can avoid since Lenar telegraphs his punches and picks the most obvious, ass-backwards way to operate in the ring, or a dumbshit referee stoppage due to Brock's rabbit punches that shake his whole damn body or a cut that bleeds like a fucking river.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 07:41
Mir has stated he's going to KO Brock, and will outstrike him, which leads me to believe he has absolutely no intention of doing so, and is baiting Brock into leaving himself open for another ground lesson by Mir. Will Brock fall for it? Most likely, yes. Getting outstruck or KO'd by Mir would be humiliating and a blow to his ego, and I think Lesnar will come out swinging for the fences to avoid it and get caught, his inexperience being his downfall a 2nd time. The hype machine surrounding Alves reminds me of Silva and Leites... his toughest challenge to date was the synonymous plug for selling the main event. That didn't work out so well for Leites, and I see the same end result for Alves. The hype machine sells Alves as bigger and stronger than GSP. Those selling points are dubious at best, as GSP's mastered the art of cutting weight and rehydrating, is a taller fighter, and has manhandled every top welterweight with a good wrestling pedigree he's faced. Can GSP take down Alves... without a doubt. GSP's had two fights go past the third round, and one the distance. I give GSP the edge in conditioning and experience, and the win in the fight. Henderson's experience will serve him well in this fight, and I think should come out on top in this match. If Franklin and Jackson couldn't KO Hendo, there's no way Bisping will.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:23
My money is going half on Mir, and half on hendo putting a major ass-kicking on bisping's useless ass. I fully expect GSP to get a decision win.
Thu, 07/09/09 - 09:36
" RPS13 Says: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 15:19 how is mark coleman +300 against Stephan fucking Bonnar?" because coleman is old as fuck, and Stephan fucking Bonnar throws mean fucking fists. That is bad for gary OLDman, er Coleman.
Fri, 07/10/09 - 09:16
mir at 2 to 1 looks like the best bet to me. that fight's a pickem.
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