(If his kick can get through this guy’s impregnable defenses, is anyone safe?)

After I got cleaned out at UFC Fight Night 19, it’s time to make some money back the only way I know how: selling fake Coach purses on the street.  Then I’m going to go blow all that money on UFC 103 bets.  Pretty solid little weekend I got planned, really.  Betting lines come to us courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:

Rich Franklin (-125) vs. Vitor Belfort (+117)
Mirko Filipovic (+120) vs. Junior Dos Santos (-130)
Martin Kampmann (-350) vs. Paul Daley (+325)
Josh Koscheck (-360) vs. Frank Trigg (+355)
Tyson Griffin (-280) vs. Hermes Franca (+285)
Efrain Escudero (-150) vs. Cole Miller (+140)
Drew McFedries (even) vs. Tomasz Drwal (even)
Jim Miller (-435) vs. Steve Lopez (+400)
Rafaello Oliveira (-275) vs. Nik Lentz (+260)
Rick Story (-125) vs. Brian Foster (+110)
Eliot Marshall (+125) vs. Jason Brilz (-135)
Vladimir Matyushenko (-270) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+255)
Rob Emerson (+113) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (-110)

The breakdown… 

- Franklin/Belfort is basically a pick-em, and that’s because we don’t know yet what to make of the new (old?) Vitor.  Is he really back in top form, or did he just knock out a couple of very knockout-able guys?  The other side of that coin is Franklin, who we absolutely know what to expect from.  He’s solid and dependable, though not incredibly flashy these days, sort of like a good pickup truck.  That’s why “Ace” is my pick here.  He’ll roll right along and pick up the decision.

- If you’d had told me back when Junior Dos Santos debuted in the UFC as a heavy underdog against Fabricio Werdum that one day soon he’d be a favorite over Cro Cop, I would have beaten you over the head with my cane, South Carolina Congressman-style.  After seeing him KO Werdum in that debut fight – and later seeing Cro Cop’s wholly unimpressive win over Mostapha Al-Turk – I might have felt bad for doing that, though.  Cro Cop always has the ability to end a fight with one flick of his tree-like leg, but there’s no way Dos Santos isn’t prepared for that.  I think he comes out hard and fast and tears Cro Cop apart.  Put me down for a sawbuck, kid.

- Let’s talk underdogs: Trigg, Daley, and Franca are all headed for beatdowns, so forget about them.  Your best bet on a small dog is probably Cole Miller, who is a much better fighter than he appears to be when you see him with his shirt off.  If you feel like taking bigger risks for bigger rewards, go ‘head and go with Nik Lentz to beat “Tractor” Oliveira.  They’re both new guys, so there’s a chance that Oliveira might freeze up when he realizes he’s in the UFC fighting a guy who uses his real name.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Jim Miller.  He’s too good and too experienced to lose to this newbie.  Just like I told you about Brock Larson….aw, dammit.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Franklin + Kampmann + Koscheck + Dos Santos.