(Weird, that’s the face I make when I even consider drinking urine.)
While you can usually find odds on the full fight card for a UFC event – even the dark matches that some ticketholders don’t bother to show up for – most online bookies seem to be trimming back their activity for UFC 104. Is that a statement on the undercard itself? An indicator that they’ve realized the futility of trying to lay odds on guys who most people know almost nothing about? A freak occurrence? We have no idea. All it means to us is that we’ll have to scratch Stefan Struve over Chase Gormley from our parlay. Bummer.
The best lines on the internet come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Lyoto Machida (-405) vs. Shogun Rua (+353)
Cain Velasquez (-290) vs. Ben Rothwell (+280)
Joe Stevenson (-225) vs. Spencer Fisher (+205)
Anthony Johnson (-300) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)
Ryan Bader (-412) vs. Eric Schafer (+355)
Antoni Hardonk (-115) vs. Pat Barry (+115)
Yushin Okami (-215) vs. Chael Sonnen (+200)
- Machida as a 4-1 favorite? Yep, that sounds about right. It’s very difficult to see how “Shogun” Rua wins this one, even if he’s back in Pride Grand Prix form. Until we see a chink in Machida’s armor, don’t expect the odds on him to encourage any sort of profit. And if you’re thinking about taking the +353 on Rua either on the chance that something weird happens or because you’re a Pride fanboy who is convinced that Shogun’s still a king without a crown, our advice to you is to keep your underdog bet manageable. Somewhere between ten dollars and a meatball sandwich sounds about right.
- Although we’ve gone wrong picking Ben Rothwell to score the upset in the past, +280 against a 6-0 fighter is too good to pass up. Yes, Velasquez is hell on the mat, but he’s also pretty shaky on the feet, judging by his last performance. Rothwell is bigger, stronger, and a better striker than anyone he’s faced. If he can stuff the takedowns – and you’d have to think he’s been working on that some of late – he has an excellent chance to take this one. We got forty bucks that says this is his night.
- If you’re scouting for good underdog picks on the rest of the card: Yoshida is a dead man walking against Johnson, Schafer and Spencer Fisher will probably both be outwrestled en route to boring decision losses, and Chael Sonnen is probably going to end up on the wrong end of a bullying scenario against Yushin Okami. That leaves Pat Barry to notch a very minor upset over Antoni Hardonk, and we like his chances to do just that.
The Official Cage Potato Parlay: Machida + Rothwell + Johnson + Barry. Looks like someone’s just a couple of upsets away from putting an end to those late-night phone calls from creditors.