(Weird, that’s the face I make when I even consider drinking urine.)
While you can usually find odds on the full fight card for a UFC event – even the dark matches that some ticketholders don’t bother to show up for – most online bookies seem to be trimming back their activity for UFC 104. Is that a statement on the undercard itself? An indicator that they’ve realized the futility of trying to lay odds on guys who most people know almost nothing about? A freak occurrence? We have no idea. All it means to us is that we’ll have to scratch Stefan Struve over Chase Gormley from our parlay. Bummer.
The best lines on the internet come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Lyoto Machida (-405) vs. Shogun Rua (+353)
Cain Velasquez (-290) vs. Ben Rothwell (+280)
Joe Stevenson (-225) vs. Spencer Fisher (+205)
Anthony Johnson (-300) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)
Ryan Bader (-412) vs. Eric Schafer (+355)
Antoni Hardonk (-115) vs. Pat Barry (+115)
Yushin Okami (-215) vs. Chael Sonnen (+200)
The breakdown…
- Machida as a 4-1 favorite? Yep, that sounds about right. It’s very difficult to see how “Shogun” Rua wins this one, even if he’s back in Pride Grand Prix form. Until we see a chink in Machida’s armor, don’t expect the odds on him to encourage any sort of profit. And if you’re thinking about taking the +353 on Rua either on the chance that something weird happens or because you’re a Pride fanboy who is convinced that Shogun’s still a king without a crown, our advice to you is to keep your underdog bet manageable. Somewhere between ten dollars and a meatball sandwich sounds about right.
- Although we’ve gone wrong picking Ben Rothwell to score the upset in the past, +280 against a 6-0 fighter is too good to pass up. Yes, Velasquez is hell on the mat, but he’s also pretty shaky on the feet, judging by his last performance. Rothwell is bigger, stronger, and a better striker than anyone he’s faced. If he can stuff the takedowns – and you’d have to think he’s been working on that some of late – he has an excellent chance to take this one. We got forty bucks that says this is his night.
- If you’re scouting for good underdog picks on the rest of the card: Yoshida is a dead man walking against Johnson, Schafer and Spencer Fisher will probably both be outwrestled en route to boring decision losses, and Chael Sonnen is probably going to end up on the wrong end of a bullying scenario against Yushin Okami. That leaves Pat Barry to notch a very minor upset over Antoni Hardonk, and we like his chances to do just that.
The Official Cage Potato Parlay: Machida + Rothwell + Johnson + Barry. Looks like someone’s just a couple of upsets away from putting an end to those late-night phone calls from creditors.
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Comments
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:11
Spencer is the man but I think he'll get smothered by stevenson. I think Schafer is gonna tap Bader though, Schafer is a lot better then people think.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:17
You can add Okami to that parlay.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:22
I feel bad for Okami, while he may not always be the most exciting fighter out there (no one is against Dean Lister) the dude has amassed a 7-1 record in the UFC with his only loss being a decision to Rich Franklin, that is pretty damn impressive.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:25
Usually I come in to make fun of picks, these aren't THAT bad guys. I disagree about Fisher getting outwrestled. His TD defense looked stellar vs Uno and Stevenson's wrestling looked good vs Diaz b/c he was able to capitalize on Diaz's 10000 standing kimura attempts (courtesy of G.Jackson). Florian was able to bully Stevenson around before strangling, he's not a great wreslter. This is a pick'em and Fisher is a good underdog play. AJ is about as big of a lock as they come. Shogun is more likely to pull off an upset than Yoshida
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:25
theres a chink in machidas armor ? i didnt know they were that small,those chinks!!
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:32
^ Lmao.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:36
"Rothwell is bigger, stronger, and a better striker than anyone he’s faced. " Do you really think Rothwell is more powerful than Kongo? I think Ben has a better chance of beating Cain than Kongo because he has at least some take down defense and bjj but I don't know about him having more power in his stand up.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:50
I agree. I'd love to see the Okami/Sonnen fight on the PPV. I think that one's goin' all the way and it'll be hard fought the whole time.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:55
@ NOTSOB 2/10 good effort, keep workin on that
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:58
Hello All. First comment. It took me a damn week to get my password sent to me. Anyway, I gotta go with Rothwell over Velasquez. After watching his last fight with Kongo, I wasn't impressed at all with his stand-up. That plus the fact that Rothwell has had 5 times the number of fights and, unlike Kongo, has actual ground skills, makes me think that Velasquez is in trouble. Plus, you gotta love the underdog odds on Big Ben. Just wanted to say greetings to all and that this site kicks all kinds of ass. Oh, and WTF is up with 'TUF Guy'? He posts some weird shit...
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:59
Anthony Johnson is exciting. Neither Okami or Sonnen can claim that and are likely to put on one of the most uninteresting fights in quite some time. While I do find the outcome of Okami/Sonnen to be worth knowing (they are both good at what they do, and can win doing it... they're good fighters), I don't want to sleep my way through seeing it on PPV.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 09:59
oops
Wed, 10/21/09 - 10:02
Shogun: I seen chink in machida's armor. gameplan is simple. To take away his elusiveness, i pee on my gloves and you'll see how machida's face find my fist very fast.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 10:07
Am I the only one to think that putting the Johnson Yoshida scrap or either of the lightweight fights on the main card while putting Okami Sonnen on the undercard is a ripoff? I mean I'm way more interested in watching 2 top ten MW's scrap than any of those 6 guys fight. No offense to "Rumble" intended but for my 45$ bucks give me "Thunder"!
Wed, 10/21/09 - 10:15
One would have to think that Yushin Okami sould start to get mentioned for a title shot if he wins this. He lost to Rich, but that was a diffrent Rich. How can he keep getting looked over?
Wed, 10/21/09 - 10:26
There's a chink hiding in Lyoto's armor?? Watch out, Chink! Lyoto came here to drink pee and beat up chinks, and he doesn't have to pee right now!
Wed, 10/21/09 - 10:57
Johnson got choked out by Rich Clementi. Yoshida can sub him.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 11:05
Johnson is for sure going to win, so is Machida and Rothwell. And I hope that loser Chael Sonnen gets his ass beat. Remember when he said that he and Damian Maia are way better than Anderson Silva? LOL what a joke.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 11:41
Caption: Aaahh! Mna! How do you get that taste out of your mouth!
Wed, 10/21/09 - 11:58
I can never bet on MaSHITa. he disgusts me. I will take : Cain Fisher Bader Johnson Barry Okami
Wed, 10/21/09 - 12:43
You dont even have money to bet you poor loser. Even if you did why wont you bet on Shogun then if you dont think Machida will win? You suck at life UFC fan. Now kill yourself queer.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 01:09
Shogun! I'd make your bets now before more people see the countdown show and realize who Shogun is. Highlights of Shogun stomping Rampage/Arona/alistair/Lidell/Gono vs machidas highlights of running away and KOing a TUF bum will do that. oh i guess he got a takedown on Tito that'll be on there too.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 01:20
Thats the betting line I am thinking as well. -- One Two- No fucking way, in any shape or form does Lyoto Machida fall to Rua--- Rua will throw a lunging arcing uppercut at range, Lyoto will jump in, connect.. and knock him the fuck out. This will happen 40 seconds into the 1st round
Wed, 10/21/09 - 02:43
yea machida tko in 2nd stephenson via decision johnson Ktfo yoshida in the first....i mean what do u expect he is the future
Wed, 10/21/09 - 03:08
Machida has 3 KOs Rua has 15. I agree someones getting KOd just not Rua. If machida does win it'll be decision with him running away the whole fight and sneaking in karate strikes to steal rounds.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 03:11
so im thinking this Shogun will throw a low kick to bait Machida. as the Dragon comes to pounce the Shogun will slay him by following through with a jumping high kick the rest of the card s as follows Rothwell via tko in the 2nd Fisher via decision Yoshida via submission in the 1st Schaeffer via submission in the 2nd Barry via ko in the 3rd Sonnen via decision Ima make thousands this card
Wed, 10/21/09 - 04:10
Okami got the shit end of the stick again. Rua is garbage and beat a bunch of washed up cans to get here. Good luck to him as he finally fights somebody in their prime.
Wed, 10/21/09 - 07:12
rothwell is guzzling his own piss right now.
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