My father has a saying about betting on MMA fights: ‘I’m not loaning you any money, and if you so much as touch that spare change jar I’ll beat you with a shovel while you’re sleeping.’ I have no idea how that was supposed to help guide me, or for that matter, any of you, when it comes to deciding who to bet on at UFC 106 this Saturday night, but I can tell you with 100% certainty that he meant it when he said it.
The odds we’ll be using today come from BestFightOdds.com.
Forrest Griffin (-135) vs. Tito Ortiz (+130)
Josh Koscheck (+109) vs. Anthony Johnson (-115)
Amir Sadollah (-185) vs. Phil Baroni (+186)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-143) vs. Luis Cane (+150)
Karo Parisyan (-105) vs. Dustin Hazelett (-105)
Marcus Davis (-205) vs. Ben Saunders (+190)
Jake Rosholt (-169) vs. Kendall Grove (+165)
Paulo Thiago (-260) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+250)
Brock Larson (-465) vs. Brian Foster (+400)
Caol Uno (-285) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+235)
George Sotiropoulos (-455) vs. Jason Dent (+355)
- Those of you who are still running around in your flame-bordered Team Punishment board shorts, talking about Tito’s dominating victories over Ken Shamrock and staring with mouth agape at all the Jenna Jameson porn movies that you actually own, you probably can’t understand how the HBBB could possibly be an underdog to Forrest Griffin. To the rest of us, it makes decent sense.
Ortiz hasn’t had a significant victory in years, and Griffin, while he’s had mixed results of late, has at least been competing on the regular. What’s more, Griffin seems genuinely improved since their first fight, while Ortiz is at the stage where he’s just hoping to maintain. That could all be wrong, of course. Tito’s surgery could have made him into an entirely new man. Not when it comes to speaking into cameras, obviously, but in the cage. I doubt it, though. My money’s on FoGriff.
- Depending on which online bookmaker you consult, Koscheck-Johnson is either a pick-em or else “Rumble” is the slight favorite. Not one of them, as of the time of this writing, is favoring Koscheck, the only top ten welterweight in this fight. That’s strange, but there’s some logic to it. Johnson is a big 170-pounder who can knock you out with any limb on his body. His takedown defense still hasn’t been tested by someone of Koscheck’s caliber, so we don’t know if can stay upright to put that power to work. I think he’ll get taken down once or twice, but I think he’ll get back up without taking too much damage and eventually Koscheck will end up in an exchange that he doesn’t really want to be in, and that’s when trouble will find him. I’m taking Johnson.
- Underdogs. There are some big ones and some modest ones on this card. Your best bet is to think about making moderate gains. Phil Baroni, for instance, is not a bad pick against the still untested Amir Sadollah. There’s also Luis Cane, who is better than a lot of people give him credit for and definitely has the power to surprise Little Nogueira in his UFC debut. If you go with either of those picks, you have my blessing. If you go with Brian Foster or Jason Dent, you’re out of the family.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: Griffin + Johnson + Rosholt + Larson. I swear to God, Forrest, if you screw this up for me there won’t be a self-deprecating remark in the world that will convince me to forgive you. I say that, and yet I know I don’t mean it.