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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 106

(Some glib video analysis of your UFC 106 betting options alongside Cagewriter‘s Steve Cofield and‘s Dave Farra.)

My father has a saying about betting on MMA fights: ‘I’m not loaning you any money, and if you so much as touch that spare change jar I’ll beat you with a shovel while you’re sleeping.’  I have no idea how that was supposed to help guide me, or for that matter, any of you, when it comes to deciding who to bet on at UFC 106 this Saturday night, but I can tell you with 100% certainty that he meant it when he said it.

The odds we’ll be using today come from

Forrest Griffin (-135) vs. Tito Ortiz (+130)
Josh Koscheck (+109) vs. Anthony Johnson (-115)
Amir Sadollah (-185) vs. Phil Baroni (+186)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-143) vs. Luis Cane (+150)
Karo Parisyan (-105) vs. Dustin Hazelett (-105)
Marcus Davis (-205) vs. Ben Saunders (+190)
Jake Rosholt (-169) vs. Kendall Grove (+165)
Paulo Thiago (-260) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+250)
Brock Larson (-465) vs. Brian Foster (+400)
Caol Uno (-285) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+235)
George Sotiropoulos (-455) vs. Jason Dent (+355)

The breakdown…

- Those of you who are still running around in your flame-bordered Team Punishment board shorts, talking about Tito’s dominating victories over Ken Shamrock and staring with mouth agape at all the Jenna Jameson porn movies that you actually own, you probably can’t understand how the HBBB could possibly be an underdog to Forrest Griffin.  To the rest of us, it makes decent sense. 

Ortiz hasn’t had a significant victory in years, and Griffin, while he’s had mixed results of late, has at least been competing on the regular.  What’s more, Griffin seems genuinely improved since their first fight, while Ortiz is at the stage where he’s just hoping to maintain.  That could all be wrong, of course.  Tito’s surgery could have made him into an entirely new man.  Not when it comes to speaking into cameras, obviously, but in the cage.  I doubt it, though.  My money’s on FoGriff.

- Depending on which online bookmaker you consult, Koscheck-Johnson is either a pick-em or else “Rumble” is the slight favorite.  Not one of them, as of the time of this writing, is favoring Koscheck, the only top ten welterweight in this fight.  That’s strange, but there’s some logic to it.  Johnson is a big 170-pounder who can knock you out with any limb on his body.  His takedown defense still hasn’t been tested by someone of Koscheck’s caliber, so we don’t know if can stay upright to put that power to work.  I think he’ll get taken down once or twice, but I think he’ll get back up without taking too much damage and eventually Koscheck will end up in an exchange that he doesn’t really want to be in, and that’s when trouble will find him.  I’m taking Johnson.

- Underdogs.  There are some big ones and some modest ones on this card.  Your best bet is to think about making moderate gains.  Phil Baroni, for instance, is not a bad pick against the still untested Amir Sadollah.  There’s also Luis Cane, who is better than a lot of people give him credit for and definitely has the power to surprise Little Nogueira in his UFC debut.  If you go with either of those picks, you have my blessing.  If you go with Brian Foster or Jason Dent, you’re out of the family.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Griffin + Johnson + Rosholt + Larson.  I swear to God, Forrest, if you screw this up for me there won’t be a self-deprecating remark in the world that will convince me to forgive you.  I say that, and yet I know I don’t mean it.

Cagepotato Comments

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jfjjfjff- November 20, 2009 at 7:12 am
btw cagepotato FIX YOUR SITE. it shouldnt take 2 minutes to submit a comment.
jfjjfjff- November 20, 2009 at 7:11 am
griffin sucks. i hope tito pounds his face.
Komodo- November 19, 2009 at 11:01 pm
FlyingGoGos- November 19, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Dam this card is full of great fights without a legit headliner.
Would have been one of the best cards of all years if you know what wasn't canceled.
bleve- November 19, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Chisel-faced zombie!
Da Spied Her- November 19, 2009 at 12:23 pm
WTF did Karo do now?!? Was it because he ignored Arianny?
Rydog444- November 19, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Karo Parisyan is done in the UFC, you read it here first. He will not be fighting Saturday or ever again in the UFC - Source, Dana White Twitter
robthom- November 19, 2009 at 12:19 pm
"...there's always Strikeforce or Dream."
Which is where I'd rather be amazed and laughing at tito.

Running the gauntlet = "so".
And thats a titoesque witticism if there ever was one.
831 Son- November 19, 2009 at 12:11 pm
BetUs(dot)com has worked well for me in the past. I dont fuck around too much with online betting but that site has payed me out within a week and a half when I do bet.

I hate Tito with a fucking passion and want his tounge cut out. Other than all the hate, he isnt that bad of a fighter. And I think if Forest comes out girly as fuck and throws tiny leg kicks and weakling jabs, Tito will wreck him. I want Forest to win, but if Forest doesnt perform to his potential then Tito will. I think and hope that Anthony Johnson destroys Josh Koscheck by the way.

Question of the day: Will Forest run away again if/when he gets beat?
NateGetsIrate- November 19, 2009 at 12:11 pm

If Tito wins, it's guaranteed that CagePotato is gonna get way funnier with each new Tito qoute to laugh at and be amazed by. Plus, how can anyone be a Forrest fan after he jetted out the cage? Yeah he went thru the gaunlet by fighting Shogun, Rampage, Rashad, and Anderson Silva. So? Welcome to the UFC. If you can't stand the heat, there's always Strikeforce or Dream.
robthom- November 19, 2009 at 12:03 pm
"kind of" ?!

Hmmmm, so you think Forrest is a bigger douche than Tito?
I dont get it. What are you some kind of trouble maker or something?
aaronb- November 19, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Bodog is really easy to bet at Facebiter.

Plus they send a check within the week when you cash out. Can't really testify about any other sites.
skeletor- November 19, 2009 at 11:52 am
I think it's more of an issue of he hasn't used it in the octagon yet. And if he's as good as Kos, but he is a legit amateur wrestler. Fight of the night in my opinion.
fACE7biter- November 19, 2009 at 11:52 am
Where do all of you guys bet on MMA? I haven't been much of a gambler since the poker fad went away, and I'd like to relapse into addiction.

I agree that people aren't giving Tito much of a chance becasue the guy is kind of douchey when he talks. What I don't get though, is why Forrest isn't getting the same reaction. Has anyone ever heard him interviewed? Read his book? Just generally heard him talk? The guy is about as big a douche as they come. The guy is an insecure jerk, you don't have to be a psychologist to see that with every unfunny self-deprecating comment he makes. I agree with Bill C., he's only slightly better than Stephan Bonnar. Althoguh Bonnar has never been finished, can't say that for Griffin, whos been finishing many times, sometimes embarrassingly so.
phaderlanx- November 19, 2009 at 11:47 am
oops, bookies screwed up on volkmann vs thiago. i train with jacob and barring a lucky ko in the brasilians favor, i see jacob getting the w. whooo, free money!
Scott- November 19, 2009 at 11:45 am
Does no one know that Anthony is a legit wrestler and should be able to keep up with Koscheck?
Hammtron- November 19, 2009 at 11:41 am
Is it just me or is Steve Cofield the long lost father of Mike Brown?
robthom- November 19, 2009 at 11:36 am
Saunders definitely beats Davis. I didn't even notice those odds. Thats fuckin stupid! I agree easy money.
steampunk22- November 19, 2009 at 11:34 am

Overall I like this card. I hope it doesn't disappoint.
robthom- November 19, 2009 at 11:30 am
"Plus look at Forrest's last four fights....Shogun, Rampage, Rashad, and Anderson Silva."

Your right about this, but what I fear is that it may have worn him down also. You cant really keep your engine idling that high consistently. He looked perfectly horrible and burnt out against anderson (Okay, I quit! No more, no more, no more....). But I'll be pulling and hoping for him.

And I'm no fan of Karo but I am getting into Hazzelett. So I am interested in that result also. It would be a good win for him if he can get it.
aaronb- November 19, 2009 at 11:28 am
I agree with Bill C.

I think people let their own personal Tito hate cloud their judgement of him as a fighter.

He beat Rashad on all 3 cards, and only drew because of a fence grabbing point deduct.

Other than Machida, the only people who have really beaten Tito were in their prime Randy and Chuck.

I can just so easily see Tito putting the mexican blanket down on Forrest for 3 rounds.

Most sure thing on this card: George Sotiropoulos

Bodog 2 man parlay of Sotirop and Hazelet pays 13 on 10. Easiest money on the card

Ben Saunders beats Marcus Davis. Only probably upset that I can see. Other than Tito which is almost a pickem at this point.
skeletor- November 19, 2009 at 11:26 am
I meant tito OVER forrest.
skeletor- November 19, 2009 at 11:25 am
I'm rooting for Tito or Forrest but it's mostly just so there's some new blood in the 205 division, also for Little Nog. With the addition of those two guys to the race and the inevitable return of Rampage there is some good possible match ups that don't involve Jardine.

It's a similar reason I'm rooting for Johnson. If he wins and ads one or two more wins I think him and GSP would be an awesome fight. Unlike the next one.
dresdin- November 19, 2009 at 11:21 am
by the looks of Jenna's box Tito has been working hard on the ground and pound
i still pick FoGriff to win, and Baroni to make a comback
Bill C.- November 19, 2009 at 11:18 am
I know I'm going to get flamed for this, and I almost hate myself for saying it, but I actually think that Tito will handle Forrest fairly easily.
I think Forrest's fights with Rashad and Anderson started to derail Griffin's hype train, and I think Tito will finally knock it completely off the tracks.
In my eyes, Forrest is just a slightly better version of Stephen Bonnar: a TUF alum who deserves nowhere near the accolades he's received in this sport. He did NOT beat Rampage in the title fight, and if he were to fight Shogun right now, he would be decimated.
The first fight with Tito was just not as close as people remember it being. Tito dominated the first round and thoroughly won the third. Forrest is a good fighter, for sure, but he is certainly not elite.