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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 111 Edition

(Nothing to see here but me yappin’ with Steve Cofield and Dave Farra about how to lose money most efficiently at UFC 111.)

For those of you lucky enough to snag tickets to UFC 111 before they sold out, you get to play an entirely different kind of betting game in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. We like to call it, ‘Mugged or Propositioned?’ It’s simple, really. You try and guess whether you will be mugged, or offered drugs and/or the services of a prostitute. Both are bound to happen eventually, but the key is to peg which one will happen first. You don’t win anything if you guess right. That’s why this game sucks.

As usual, the best odds on the internet come to us from BestFightOdds.com:

Georges St. Pierre (-650) vs. Dan Hardy (+638)
Frank Mir (-140) vs. Shane Carwin (+130)
Ben Saunders (-155) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+148)
Jon Fitch (+140) vs. Thiago Alves (-145)
Jim Miller (-332) vs. Mark Bocek (+310)
Nate Diaz (-275) vs. Rory Markham (+250)
Ricardo Almeida (-138) vs. Matt Brown (+135)
Kurt Pellegrino (-165) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+160)
Rodney Wallace (-120) vs. Jared Hamman (-103)
Rousimar Palhares (-237) vs. Tomasz Drwal (+211)
Matthew Riddle (-217) vs. Greg Soto (+190)

The breakdown…


- You’d have to be an idiot to bet against GSP. Hardy lacks the one-shot knockout power of a Thiago Alves, and we saw how Alves did. You’re basically betting that because GSP lost against a huge underdog once, virtually any other huge underdog has as good a chance to beat him.

At the same time, you’d be crazy to bet on GSP with these odds. You won’t make any money unless you bet big, and if you bet big there’s also the chance that your little nest egg will get Matt Serra’d. Maybe you’ll just throw down ten bucks on Hardy, thinking of it as a sort of lottery ticket. Off-shore betting establishments everywhere thank you for adhering to this line of reasoning.

- Perhaps no fight on this card is as tough to call as Mir-Carwin. While Mir has had an up-and-down career over the last few years, Carwin has barely had any Octagon time at all, especially against serious heavyweights. Either one could turn out to be less of a force than we thought he was. That said, based on Carwin’s one-punch power and wrestling ability, which will leave Mir with a lot to worry about at once, I’m taking “The Engineer of Pain” as my favorite underdog on the card.

Quick Picks: I like Alves over Fitch (for the reasons articulated poorly in the above video), Ellenberger over Saunders, Miller over Bocek, Brown over Almeida, and Pellegrino over Camoes.

Crazy Underdogs: If you need to latch on to someone with long odds to keep yourself interested, don’t rule out Markham of Drwal. Diaz should beat Markham on paper, but as long as Rory is upright he can hurt you. And Palhares? His jiu-jitsu may be great, but there’s always a chance that he could get run over by a more aggressive and slightly more experienced Drwal.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: St. Pierre + Miller + Diaz + Pellegrino.

Cagepotato Comments

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RaginAsian- March 27, 2010 at 11:29 pm
Official Cagepotato parlay makes me money tonight. Cheers, Bens.

But damn if you didn't cut it close with Miller-Bocek.
Harry Nips- March 25, 2010 at 8:43 am
Diaz is a better grappler but Markham has never been submitted and has good takedown defense. I like Markham by KO in 2nd. He hits alot harder than a 155er.
Durden- March 25, 2010 at 2:44 am
I wonder what the world would be like if GSP had a funnier name, like Langdon Hopcrotch or something.. One can dream though..
ghostboner- March 25, 2010 at 12:40 am
Nate Diaz is a favorite in his first fight at 170? WTF? 831 Son you know anything about this? And Fitch is an underdog? To a guy he already beat?? I agree Drwal is a good pick for an upset.
KingZipperhed- March 24, 2010 at 11:11 pm
WTF i just saw Matt Serra say that he thinks GSP will win this fight by GNP ??????? Uhhhhhh i agree with him but WTF happened to loyalty. Maybe an old clip before he started training Hardy? Funny though
BONGTAR- March 24, 2010 at 8:46 pm
I like Carwin. I tweet with him now and then. But.....I don't know what I think. Sorry for your time.
KingZipperhed- March 24, 2010 at 8:14 pm
Uhhhhh No, No he won't. Wait let me think about that for a ... Uhhhh No he won't
2phresh- March 24, 2010 at 7:00 pm
literally! nobody is giving Mr Hardy chance lol
he might make a few guys rich as hell!
fiveforfive- March 24, 2010 at 5:32 pm
CHUMP, it's clear you made all your picks off my FIGHTPICKER selections.
Tai-Pan- March 24, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Diaz Markham is interesting. Diaz first fight at 170, he's not gonna knock Markham out. So he submits him? Does Diaz have the wrestling for this shit to hit the ground? Seems to me their's more to this fight then the odds portray. Although I don't think Nate will get knocked out, I can see Markham pulling off a decision by keeping it standing.

Palhares seems to have so many nuthuggers already I got hope Drwal wins.

Why so confident in miller? Bocek ain't bad and at +310 pays off well.

But ya Carwin knocks out Mir within 2:00 setting us up for the epicnesss that is Carwin/ Lesnar.
MIKE MOSHER- March 24, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Did you even proof read this article? It's like a retarded third grader wrote this shit. I'm literally so upset I might just poop in my own mouth.
parchy mcthirst- March 24, 2010 at 4:02 pm
as always, much obliged for the info Ben G and Ben F; however, it seems as though you didn't proof read all too well

'...rule out Markham of Drwal.'

you fellas mean 'Markham or*** Drwal'?
El Guapo- March 24, 2010 at 3:47 pm
I'll stab 'em and shoot 'em and skullfu.. Oops! Wrong link.
Imentiu- March 24, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Well, I found 10 pounds on the street. So I'm throwing it out and going with safe bets and picking Hardy to win on an accumaltor: Potential returns: 260 pounds. Expected returns: -10 pounds.
Ring_Rust619- March 24, 2010 at 3:43 pm
I'm thinking GSP is due to get Serra'd again
robthom- March 24, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Eeeuuw!

Have you ever met actual gambling addicts?!!!!!!!!!!!
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