For those of you lucky enough to snag tickets to UFC 111 before they sold out, you get to play an entirely different kind of betting game in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night. We like to call it, ‘Mugged or Propositioned?’ It’s simple, really. You try and guess whether you will be mugged, or offered drugs and/or the services of a prostitute. Both are bound to happen eventually, but the key is to peg which one will happen first. You don’t win anything if you guess right. That’s why this game sucks.
As usual, the best odds on the internet come to us from BestFightOdds.com:
Georges St. Pierre (-650) vs. Dan Hardy (+638)
Frank Mir (-140) vs. Shane Carwin (+130)
Ben Saunders (-155) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+148)
Jon Fitch (+140) vs. Thiago Alves (-145)
Jim Miller (-332) vs. Mark Bocek (+310)
Nate Diaz (-275) vs. Rory Markham (+250)
Ricardo Almeida (-138) vs. Matt Brown (+135)
Kurt Pellegrino (-165) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+160)
Rodney Wallace (-120) vs. Jared Hamman (-103)
Rousimar Palhares (-237) vs. Tomasz Drwal (+211)
Matthew Riddle (-217) vs. Greg Soto (+190)
- You’d have to be an idiot to bet against GSP. Hardy lacks the one-shot knockout power of a Thiago Alves, and we saw how Alves did. You’re basically betting that because GSP lost against a huge underdog once, virtually any other huge underdog has as good a chance to beat him.
At the same time, you’d be crazy to bet on GSP with these odds. You won’t make any money unless you bet big, and if you bet big there’s also the chance that your little nest egg will get Matt Serra’d. Maybe you’ll just throw down ten bucks on Hardy, thinking of it as a sort of lottery ticket. Off-shore betting establishments everywhere thank you for adhering to this line of reasoning.
- Perhaps no fight on this card is as tough to call as Mir-Carwin. While Mir has had an up-and-down career over the last few years, Carwin has barely had any Octagon time at all, especially against serious heavyweights. Either one could turn out to be less of a force than we thought he was. That said, based on Carwin’s one-punch power and wrestling ability, which will leave Mir with a lot to worry about at once, I’m taking “The Engineer of Pain” as my favorite underdog on the card.
Quick Picks: I like Alves over Fitch (for the reasons articulated poorly in the above video), Ellenberger over Saunders, Miller over Bocek, Brown over Almeida, and Pellegrino over Camoes.
Crazy Underdogs: If you need to latch on to someone with long odds to keep yourself interested, don’t rule out Markham of Drwal. Diaz should beat Markham on paper, but as long as Rory is upright he can hurt you. And Palhares? His jiu-jitsu may be great, but there’s always a chance that he could get run over by a more aggressive and slightly more experienced Drwal.
Official Cage Potato Parlay: St. Pierre + Miller + Diaz + Pellegrino.