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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 112 Edition

(The affable Gracie uses one of his patented knock-knock jokes to disarm Hughes just long enough to set up a collar choke. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestlye.)

Your old pal the Enabler tried as hard as he could, but damned if he could locate any online bookmaker that was giving odds on whether or not the UFC’s hastily thrown together stadium in Abu Dhabi would collapse under the strain of a sandstorm and trap everyone inside its terrifying skeleton of twisted metal and promotional posters. I refuse to believe I’m the only person who thinks that the chances of that happening are at least as good as Demian Maia’s odds.

We might as well take a look at stuff we can bet on, courtesy of

Anderson Silva (-650) vs. Demian Maia (+600)
BJ Penn (-675) vs. Frankie Edgar (+552)
Matt Hughes (-360) vs. Renzo Gracie (+361)
Mark Munoz (-150) vs. Kendall Grove (+155)
Terry Etim (-138) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+135)
Phil Davis (-435) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (+420)

The breakdown…

- Since the two title fights both feature heavily favorite champions taking on major underdog challengers, you probably want to decide right now which longshot is the better bet. There’s something encouraging about Maia’s admission that he needs to take Silva down, and fast. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be able to do it, or to finish Silva if he does manage a takedown, but at least he’s being a realist.

Edgar also has limited options. He’s not big or strong enough to outwrestle Penn, he’s certainly not going to submit him, so he needs to keep it standing and put his hand speed to work. The trouble is, he’s not exactly known for his KO power so much as his ability to outbox opponents en route to a decision. It’s hard to see him plying that trade for the five full rounds and coming out ahead.

Conclusion? Maia has the better shot at pulling off the shocking upset, but arguing about it feels arguing about which of your pregnant teenage cousins has the best chance of becoming a Senator someday.

- As great of a feel good story as it would be for Renzo Gracie to restore his family’s honor in the UFC with a win over Hughes, you don’t want to bet your 401k on it. Stylistic concerns aside, he’s been out of action for over three years. He’s bound to be rusty and he can’t afford it against Hughes, who knows he just needs to stay out of submissions and do his regular thing to win this.

Quick Picks:
Munoz over Grove, Etim over Dos Anjos, and Davis over Gustafsson. No surprises there.

Official Cage Potato Parlay:
Silva + Penn + Hughes + Davis. Playing it safe all the way to the bank, people.

Cagepotato Comments

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Komodo- April 8, 2010 at 10:45 pm
Stoked for Etim vs. Dos Anjos. That's gonna' be some good shit.
sevvi- April 8, 2010 at 5:01 am
As a swede i'm rooting for Gustafsson, that's actually my surname aswell. But I just don't see him winning this matchup. But i hope i'm wrong.
Clyde- April 7, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Does anyone else see a hint of Strikeforce/Dream freak show events to these odds? They are expecting some serious one sidedness for this one.
ghostboner- April 7, 2010 at 1:35 pm
@bumbles mcfluffens - When you said criminally underrated did you mean to put clinically retarded? Because that is what my dyslexia told me I saw when I read it the first time. Also, is your name a James Toney tribute?

Gustafsson is a +420 underdog? WTF? I see that one being a little more even. +100 maybe. I'll put a nickel on the Sson of Gustaf.

ReX13- April 7, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Parchy>> Amen.
TheWisestWizard- April 7, 2010 at 12:28 pm
I'll co-sign that Kid Clam. You never want to see a limb broken in a fight but I'll make an exception for Hughes. (Sylvia's arm snapping wasn't exactly a bummer either. Even if it was a cast off of Jersey Shore doing it.)
parchy mcthirst- April 7, 2010 at 12:27 pm

Despite maiming one Gracie, Hughes will never reach the level of Gracie hunting that Sakuraba displayed. He is the true Gracie Hunter and forever shall be
Kid Clam Curtains- April 7, 2010 at 12:00 pm
I hope renzo breaks country breakfast's arm.
FlashinLeather- April 7, 2010 at 11:10 am
first UFC that i'm not going to bet on in a long time, to much risk vs to little of a reward
Swedish- April 7, 2010 at 11:00 am
Dude. WTH are you doing betting against the BIG SWEDE? I'm personally offended Ben.

You don't think he has enough power to take out Davis? I'm starting to think you have something against Swedish people. Bring it
Old_Bald_and_Irish- April 7, 2010 at 10:56 am

bumbles mcfluffens- April 7, 2010 at 10:56 am
dos anjos is criminally underrated.
ReX13- April 7, 2010 at 10:52 am
So when do Sakuraba and Hughes face off for title of "Gracie Hunter"?