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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 113 Edition


("Trust me bro, you’ve never had piss until you’ve had it out of a coconut." Photo courtesy of Sherdog.)

After a disappointing performance at WEC 48, the Gambling Enabler is ready to do what it does best: Make even larger, more desperate bets in order to break even. We’ve got UFC 113 coming up this weekend, and you can’t win if you don’t play. As usual, we’ve compiled the most favorable betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.com. Confused about what the numbers mean? Then punch yourself in your stupid balls and read this first.

MAIN CARD
Lyoto Machida (-174) vs. Mauricio Rua (+160)
Josh Koscheck (-215) vs. Paul Daley (+218)
Sam Stout (-180) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+162)
Kimbo Slice (even) vs. Matt Mitrione (-102
Alan Belcher (-110) vs. Patrick Cote (+105)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Tom Lawlor (-475) vs. Joe Doerksen (+400)
Marcus Davis (-450) vs. Jonathan Goulet (+400)
Johny Hendricks (-450) vs. TJ Grant (+350)
Tim Hague (-205) vs. Joey Beltran (+200)
Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-240) vs. Mike Guymon (+235)
Jason MacDonald (-155) vs. John Salter (+135)

Who wants to make some money the easy way? (Or potentially lose it, because anything can happen in a fight?)


The Main Event: Personally, I’m staying away from this one. But if you’re one of those people who thinks the match is a 50/50 toss-up, or that Rua has a slight edge — he did outstrike Machida in their first fight, after all, no matter how the judges scored it — then yes, there’s some value in Rua at +165. Be careful though, because Machida always finds a way to win.

They Get No Respect: Some guys on this card are noticeably undervalued, and deserve some straight-bet action. I figured that Alan Belcher would be a larger favorite over Patrick Cote, considering his impressive recent performances — the decision in the Akiyama fight notwithstanding — and considering that Cote is coming off his loooooong knee-injury layoff. My money’s on the hideous Johnny Cash tattoo. Jason MacDonald is being straight-up insulted with his modest -155 line over 4-1 prospect John Salter, who got his ass kicked by Gerald Harris in January, and will almost surely get his ass kicked again by the Athlete. And after the way Sam Stout dismantled Joe Lauzon earlier this year, his -180 over the middling Jeremy Stephens is looking mighty attractive.

Bangers and Cash: Now that Josh Koscheck is maybe backing away from his plan to stand and trade with Paul Daley, I have less faith in Semtex as an underdog pick. You’re better off skipping this match and throwing down some chips on the even-money punch-up of Kimbo vs. Meathead. I’m not going to tell you what to do here, but if you paid attention to TUF 10 and the finale show, you know that Mitrione is an even better brawler than Kimbo is. 

The Good ‘Dog: Joey Beltran, who’s coming off his whipping of Rolles Gracie at UFC 109. Sure, Tim Hague was able to surprise Pat Barry with a submission last year, but then he got run out of the UFC by Todd Duffee and Chris Tuchscherer, and is only getting another shot in the Octagon because Chad Corvin dropped out. If you compare their records and UFC performances side by side, there’s really nothing to justify Hague being a 2-1 favorite over the Mexecutioner. To me, this fight is more of a pick-’em — and if Beltran wins, you double your money.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Stout + Belcher + Lawlor + MacDonald. No guarantees here, but it’ll kick out a nice profit if it lands.

Cagepotato Comments

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matahtak- May 6, 2010 at 6:23 am
If you guys want to know the best way to gamble on fights, do what I did. I finally broke down and wanted to gamble on WEC 48M. Signed up on Bodog.ca and used a Visa brand giftcard that I purchased from the Canada Post office.

So you can buy a 25 dollar, 50 to 100. And then that's it gamble away by depositing the full amount of the card. Keep the card though! Because you need to submit a form if you win and want to cash out.

Don't wager everything on one event, have some left over for the next one.

Parley basically means you wager, and on the condition that all fighters win you get a payout. It's kinda big on a low amount, which is fun.

You can also just do single bets as well, which I like to do for highly underrated fighters like Manny G at WEC 48.

Shifty- May 6, 2010 at 5:48 am
I've heard that Lyoto drinks his own semen when training for his bowling league.
whitey- May 6, 2010 at 12:25 am
@matahtak
15 huh? that sucks cause goulet is gonna get ko'd again.
war irish hand grenade!
ghostboner- May 5, 2010 at 10:01 pm
USA USA USA!!! Kidding. That system is swell, although I can understand the present one just fine too. Now the inches and feet thing IS some dumb shit. I would vote for the metric switch in a heartbeat.

Question for the betters, who do you use/who would you recommend for online sports betting? One of these days I am thinking of putting some of that spare change to good use, by betting it on human cockfighting.

@ El Famous Burrito - You are in one of my fightpicker pools, and I am planning on beating you soundly. My ace in the hole...Mike Guymon.
dranokills- May 5, 2010 at 8:53 pm
Naked Rear Poke Says:
Thu, 05/06/2010 - 02:16

I don't mean to sound like a dick (here we go). In Australia we use the decimal odds system and it's so simple even WE can understand it (do you like the self-deprecation).
On the betting site I use Machida is $1.52 and Rua is $2.50. All you do is multiply your bet by the odds to get your potential winnings, eg. $5 on Machida is 5x1.52=7.60. I don't know why you guys haven't converted, but then again I don't get all that feet and inches shit either.
I can hear the "USA! USA! USA!" chants from here.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

see you guys are damn smart, I like that much better myself.
I'm still NOT telling my picks....I SO wanna kick all your asses.
Or at least cry like a big girl later if I don't.
fatbellyfrank- May 5, 2010 at 5:20 pm
@ nakedrear. I'm an NRL guy, Go the Raiders although my dedication does cost me money with those boys
Tai-Pan- May 5, 2010 at 5:08 pm
@Naked Rear Poke and fatbellyfrank

That is how Proline works up here in Canada. I agree it's alot simplier, also makes it so much more tempting to add more to your parley. I think the craziest I saw was 7, so 7 x $5 = 35$ payout. But you have to bet 3 choices, so a minimum 3 parley. Fucking football season bankrupts me every year, and I never win shit.

On an MMA note:
Yoshida a -235? I have no idea who Guymon is but he can beat Yoshida.

Official Parley: Koscheck, Mitrione, Stout and Cote. I think Machida will win, but I'm not risking my Parley on it.
Naked Rear Poke- May 5, 2010 at 5:01 pm
@fatbellyfrank - Heightens the tension my friend, heightens the tension. I don't know about this rugby business though, AFL for me. Go the Bombers!
fatbellyfrank- May 5, 2010 at 4:30 pm
@ Naked rear, yeah, I must admit, if there's one thing we Aussies do well, (Apart from tucking leather balls under our arms and running into people) it's making betting nice and easy so everyone has a chance at poverty/living the high life, I love me some fights, but winning money on fights is just so damn sweeeeet
Naked Rear Poke- May 5, 2010 at 4:16 pm
I don't mean to sound like a dick (here we go). In Australia we use the decimal odds system and it's so simple even WE can understand it (do you like the self-deprecation).
On the betting site I use Machida is $1.52 and Rua is $2.50. All you do is multiply your bet by the odds to get your potential winnings, eg. $5 on Machida is 5x1.52=7.60. I don't know why you guys haven't converted, but then again I don't get all that feet and inches shit either.
I can hear the "USA! USA! USA!" chants from here.
steampunk22- May 5, 2010 at 4:04 pm
In all fairness Tim Hague should've won the Tuscherer fight, that decision was balls. So, given THAT, he subbed Pat Barry, made a stupid mistake in the Duffee fight, and handled Tusch. I think he's stepping in only partially out of a dropped opponent, this seems to me that Dana is making amends at the same time. One more chance sort of a thing since he got a bit of a raw deal.
Smitty- May 5, 2010 at 4:03 pm
My balls are sore........
Japanadian- May 5, 2010 at 2:42 pm
@Opposites attack, your logic just seems silly, of course you wouldn't lose money if you won the bet.... but i understand how you feel, i know nothing about gambling.
Cote ftw, Belcher said last time he fought in montreal the crowd messed him up mentally which is why he performed so badly against Jason Day. Cote has something to prove since his layoff too.
failingev0lution- May 5, 2010 at 2:28 pm
@ Opposites attack
google has the answer to all of your questions.
ghostboner- May 5, 2010 at 2:27 pm
@ Opposites attack - Nice try. You're not fooling me.

I can't believe Koscheck at -215 and Daley at +218. I never thought after the Paulo Thiago fight that I would see a Koscheck opponent getting a +218 line.
El Famous Burrito- May 5, 2010 at 2:26 pm
@Opp

If you win, you get your bet back, plus the winnings.

For example, if the line is +200, and you bet 100, you get your original 100 PLUS the 200.

If the line is -120, you win your 100 back, PLUS 83 dollars.

If you win, you always make your bet back. If you lose, it's forfeit.

I hate to keep pimping other sites, but if you want to play at MMA betting with fake money and legitimate odds, try hxxp://www.mmaplayground.com

But always remember to check CagePotato everyday for news and lulz. ALWAYS!
failingev0lution- May 5, 2010 at 2:25 pm
My underdog parlay:
Cote, Grant, Beltran.
$10 bet gets you $267.
Or sub in Rua for the longshot Grant and that $10 still gets you $150.

For the record, I only ever pretend gamble, or make little bets with my friends, but it's tempting.
ghostboner- May 5, 2010 at 2:23 pm
@ Defender - If you look to your right, under the heading "Blood Brothers", you will notice a link to a site called Bloody Tampon Elbow. Ignore this, it is just gay porn. You will also notice links for "MMA Betting Blog" and "MMA Moneyline". Maybe these will help you.

P.S. Buub! I mean, Beub! Shit, I mean, Roob! Wait, no, Pyoob! Ah fuck it. Guywhoonlyjustrecentlyregisteredwiththissite!
Opposites Attack- May 5, 2010 at 2:14 pm
ok....i know i am gonig to get called out on this, but I am genuinely confused, and I have never been a betting man, so bear with me...

"Soooo…if a fighter has a -200 after their name, that means you would have to RISK (or bet) $200 to win back $100"

so let me get this right....you bet 200 bucks to win back 100 bucks? so even though you win, you are still losing the other 100? to take this a step further to really show you how confused I am.....so along those same lines, if I bet 400 bucks, I will only get 200 back, now meaning I have lost 200 bucks total? am I missing something?

Why would anybody bet on the favorite if you lose money even when you pick correctly?

Can anybody please tell me what is wrong here, because this cannot be right. Thanks in advance, and please excuse my stupidity....my brain hurts.
El Famous Burrito- May 5, 2010 at 2:00 pm
I'm just trying to expand the list of "People I know, however vaguely, that may be or become fabulously weatlhy".

In this case it also corresponds to my list of "People who blame me for their misfortunes, but will never find me".
ReX13- May 5, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Defender>> On the other hand, Ben thoughtfully provided a betting primer, as well as step by step instructions of what to do to advance your knowledge.

So, yeah, uh.... learn to read there, newbtart. You think we have all day to just type stuff for your amusement/aggrandizement? As if.



Defender- May 5, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Thanks guys :) Gambling is one of those things I don't think should be easy to learn...and honestly I have a pretty addictive personality and shouldn't be doing it. Especially with these fights. But I like the idea of knowing how and better what the odds are, and if there are any solids bets.

Thanks again!
El Famous Burrito- May 5, 2010 at 1:44 pm
@Defender


hxxp://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where-and-how-to-bet-mma-now.mma

Oh, and NOOOOOOOOOOOOOB!!!!
ReX13- May 5, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Defender>> Don't be too tough on yourself. I've lived near casinos for years, but i don't want to start down what i think could be a slippery slope for me, so i've never learned much about betting.

So, in the words of Michael Jackson:

"You are not alone."

(also:


"Shamone.")
Defender- May 5, 2010 at 1:32 pm
I'm just gunna come right out and say it:

I would like to bet, but I don't entirely understand how. I've fucked around with some Fantasy betting, but I don't completely understand what I'm doing. I've learned a bit about what the odds mean and all that...but a parley means nothing to me.

I expect to be flamed...but know I'm putting myself out there. Can someone between the "OMG N00B!" posts post up a reliable site I can use to read up on it?
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