(Props: CagePotato reader Mitch C.)
After making a solid profit on Heavy Artillery, the Gambling Enabler is ready to let it ride on UFC 114. Are you ready? Or are you too chickenshit to claim what’s yours in this life? Seriously, if you don’t have the balls to make hypothetical online wagers on UFC fights, then LEAVE NOW BECAUSE WE DON’T WANT YOU. Odds are only being offered on seven matches from the #114 card, but that’s enough to make us a little cash, so lets take a look at the numbers courtesy of MMAMoneyline…
Rashad Evans (-115) vs. Quinton Jackson (+105)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-540) vs. Jason Brilz (+375)
Michael Bisping (-185) vs. Dan Miller (+160)
Todd Duffee (-430) vs. Mike Russow (+325)
Diego Sanchez (-220) vs. John Hathaway (+185)
Amir Sadollah (-130) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+120)
Efrain Escudero (-400) vs. Dan Lauzon (+350)
The Main Event: To clarify for the Rampage nut-huggers — Quinton is a small underdog here because he’s spent the last year acting, while Rashad has spent the last year fighting and training. Rampage probably hasn’t lost his striking power, but I foresee Rashad scoring at least a couple of takedowns that score him points with the judges. My official prediction is Rashad by decision, in a fight that doesn’t quite live up to the "epic grudge match" hype. The smartest bet here is probably no bet. But nobody ever accused us of being smart.
Squash City: According to the betting lines, Lil’ Nog will smash Jason Brilz, Todd Duffee is going to slash through Mike Russow, and Efrain Escudero is going to eat Dan Lauzon’s lunch. The guy with the biggest chance of an upset is Mike Russow — he’s not a late replacement, he hasn’t had a falling out with his camp, and he honestly is one of the more underrated heavyweights in the game. His +325 line is somewhat tempting, and I have no doubt that he can give Duffee the fight of his life, but I still say Duffee gets his arm raised when the smoke clears. Put Nogueira/Duffee/Escudero in a parlay together for a small but safe return on investment.
The Good ‘Dog: If you want to bet against a favorite, your remaining options are Dan Miller, John Hathaway, and Dong Hyun Kim. Miller didn’t look impressive in his last two decision losses to Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen, so I’m staying away from him. Kim is well-seasoned and still technically undefeated, but he’s been out of action since UFC 100 due to injuries, so I wouldn’t throw money on him either. Oddly enough, John Hathaway is the best option here. Hathaway is 3-0 in the UFC and coming off a complete rout of Paul Taylor at UFC 105, while Diego Sanchez is returning to welterweight after being utterly demoralized against BJ Penn in December. Sanchez’s pace and intensity can crack most opponents, but if the Nightmare comes into this fight with the mentality that it’s a tune-up fight, he could be surprised.
Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $10 on Evans
– $20 on Nogueira/Duffee/Escudero parlay
– $15 on on Bisping/Sanchez/Sadollah parlay
– $5 on Hathaway or Russow, whoever you like better