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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 116 Edition

Well, we’ve got a big UFC event coming up this weekend, which means you should all head over to fightpicker.cagepotato.com (or apps.facebook.com/fightpicker) and make your predictions for UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin. Congrats to FightPicker Grandmaster Aaron Rampey for becoming the first player to crack the 10,000 chip mark. Well done, buddy. That’s gonna look awesome on your CV.

Of course, if you had some balls you’d bet actual money on the fights, and not silly-ass "PotatoChips." As usual, we’d like to help you win some cash for Saturday’s event — or at the very least not take heavy losses. Betting lines are below, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com; if you don’t know what this stuff means, read this first.

MAIN CARD
Brock Lesnar (-130) vs. Shane Carwin (+140)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-200) vs. Chris Leben (+185)
Chris Lytle (-195) vs. Matt Brown (+160)
Krzysztof Soszynski (-218) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+195)
George Sotiropoulos (-195) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+160)

SPIKE TV PRELIMS
Brendan Schaub (-295) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+264)
Ricardo Romero (-145) vs. Seth Petruzelli (+120)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Kendall Grove (+145)
Gerald Harris (-245) vs. Dave Branch (+200)
Daniel Roberts (-170) vs. Forrest Petz (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-160) vs. Jon Madsen (+150)

Read on to get that paper…


The Main Event: As long as Carwin is an underdog, he’s worth betting on. I don’t see him getting physically bullied the same way Lesnar’s previous opponents have, and Shane’s notorious punching power has stopped every one of his UFC opponents in the first round. Plus, Lesnar is dealing with a year’s worth of ring rust, due to a rematch with Soszynski). I should warn you that even though you may be unfamiliar with the names Ricardo Romero and Karlos Vemola, they’ve performed like beasts in their pre-UFC careers and are front-runners for good reason.

The Good ‘Dogs: Goran Reljic has only fought once since 2008 — a decision loss to CB Dollaway at UFC 110 — and has never won a fight at middleweight. So I’m not sure why he gets to be the favorite against Kendall Grove. (Remember how good Grove looked against Mark Munoz at UFC 112? You know, before he got his ass kicked?) I’d also point out that Chris Tuchscherer is probably being undervalued at +264. Schaub may be younger and more energetic, but is he really that much more talented than Tuchscherer? I could see the far-more-experienced Tuchscherer using his wrestling and weight advantages to grind Schaub down.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on a Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $20 on Carwin
– $10 on Grove
– $5 on Tuchscherer
– $10 parlay on Sotiropoulos, Soszynski, and Harris
– $5 on either Pellegrino, Brown, or Leben

(BG)

Cagepotato Comments

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Squirrelnuts- July 1, 2010 at 6:51 am
Georgie Sots landed me $270 last time he fought, he should do it again. Guy's a fuckin beast.

and my entire paycheck is going on Carwin. If they both lose my missus and kids could be singing for their supper.
fatbellyfrank- July 1, 2010 at 3:46 am
$10 to win on Carwin and Leben
$20 to win George Sotiropolous,
Have to recheck website sportingbet.com.au but those wins would drop approx $50 back in the kick to be used for next fights. If none come up its $40 that was put aside for a bet on the fights, and I budget this with Mrs fatbelly's approval.
Keep it in perspective and dont gamble more than you budget for, I love a bet, Horses, greyhounds, Football, Fights let me at it, but I never bet more than is in the kick, and then when you get a win, its all gravy.
fatbellyfrank- July 1, 2010 at 3:35 am
^ Yeah, startin to get excited, cant wait to see George show whats he got, and the main event is gonna be fucken sick, KABOOM
Komodo- July 1, 2010 at 3:10 am
STOKED.

Hell, the weigh-ins are gonna' be good, ffs :รพ
jltimm24- July 1, 2010 at 1:16 am
I hate Greg Jackson for making exciting fighters boring and I am very scared he will soon do that with Carwin.
jltimm24- July 1, 2010 at 1:03 am
lol cage potato picks carwin because he gives them interviews. unfortunately lesnar is going to win this bout.
topdog- June 30, 2010 at 8:11 pm
Carwin by tko second rd. Even if Lesnar is able to take him down Carwin will just reverse the position and pound. Many people do not know Carwin has trained in BJJ but he will definitely show it if he needs to. Expect to see Carwin tear him another asshole.
Milklavar- June 30, 2010 at 7:12 pm
dangadang - Gouviea vs Reljic was at lightheavyweight.

Secondly, everyone in this forum including cagepotato are crazy if you believe tuscherer has any chance of winning. I have nothing against the guy, but he has not looked very good in te octagon, even in his wins. He'd be lucky to get by the first round.
DangadaDang- June 30, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Am I missing something, or was Reljic's ass whooping of Gouvaei not at middleweight?
jimbonics- June 30, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Carwin, Leben, Bonnar parlay.

cha-ching!

ArmFarmer- June 30, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Honestly the monkey with darts is probably as accurate as anything.. I mean the monkey might have hit werdum, shields, or edgar... I wouldn't have.
Swedish- June 30, 2010 at 1:43 pm
@LastEmperor - CP has about a .500 record if I would guess

So bet your money using their analysis or just have a monkey throw darts and your betting sheet. You pick.
LastEmperor- June 30, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Can anybody attest to how often the cagepotatoe gambling enabler has preformed for them?
ArmFarmer- June 30, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Justscrappin,

You have the right idea. Gambling is evil as shit. I'm convinced there is some supernatural force that just won't let people make easy money. Let me share some of my misfortunes so that others will be wary..

-I had $1,700 riding on a bunch of parlays, a total of about 10 fights I think. I picked 9/10 of those fights right, but in a classic gambling mistake I included my lock pick in every parlay. Bj over Edgar. Lost it all.

-I bet on krystof/bonnar going past 2.5 rounds, knowing it would almost certainly go to decision. About 10 seconds short, they both throw punchs and collide heads causing a fight ending cut via fluke headbutt. Bet lost.

-I bet on the Yankees to beat the orioles, who at the time were like 2-11 or something. It was a 5 game series I think, anyway they lost the one game I bet on and dominated the other 4.

-It was very common for me to correctly pick 4 or 5 fights in a row, decide to bet on the next one, lose, and then continue picking them right when I wasn't betting.

Gambling works in funny ways. It's definitely an easy way to blow thousands of dollars. Best bet (no pun intended) is just to stay away. My gambling spun out of control and cost me thousands but luckily I'm at the right point in my life where it's not going to cause me a ton of problems. If I had a wife, kids, mortgage ect. I'd be in a world of hurt.
Gregm412- June 30, 2010 at 1:24 pm
you said it NOTSOB thats the only reason he looked bigger, overall there about the same size, Lesnar is strong but has no punching power, he's going to try to out wrestling Carwin and fail and when Carwin finds his opening he's gonna cause some brain damage to Lesnar
NOTSOB- June 30, 2010 at 1:21 pm
@ Swedish....

Brock had shoes on 1 1/2 inch thick probaly. and a suit. of course he would look bigger.
Morningwood- June 30, 2010 at 1:17 pm
Tuchscherer will lose by head kick. He will see Schaub start to throw a kick an immediately drop his hands to protect his nuts. And Gonzaga will apologize to Tuchscherer again.
Swedish- June 30, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Everyone is saying that Lesnar is so much smaller now, but did you guys see when he entered the cage and stood next to Carwin? He dwarfed Carwin like crazy.

Is his weight loss just a untrue misdirection?

I have Lesnar on this one... all the way. He will secure the takedown and apply his hammer fists from hell.
SweetAfflictionShirt- June 30, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Forest Petz will win by virtue of living in Cleveland. Hand-to-Hand combat is nothing compared to weathering the past three Browns seasons.
justscrappin- June 30, 2010 at 1:07 pm
I don't gamble shit. I would rather buy something that I only use once...but can go and pick it up and feel it with my hands. I'm not into throwing money out the window or burning it. I played the fightpicker...and lost the proverbial shirt off my back....If it was real money..I would be sucking dick to pay my mortgage right now. All I can say is this card is looking sick...and if it would've still had Wandy instead of Chris...it would've been the frosting on the cake. This cake is still looking mighty tasty though. I'm probably going to have to order it and go even furter in debt.
Sabado Gigante- June 30, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Suck my balls Hurricane Alex!
El Guapo- June 30, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Guess it's not a big deal when the favorite wins and all, but.. BROCK BY MURDER!
SubmYssion- June 30, 2010 at 12:46 pm
I am with you on the Carwin thing. I want to see how he does. It will be Brock's toughest for sure.
Nealio- June 30, 2010 at 12:39 pm
I think Tuchscherer will pull the upset. Imagine how much better he will fight with his balls OUTSIDE of his abdomen..
Sakuraba3900- June 30, 2010 at 12:39 pm
$200 down on the footstomps from hell...
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