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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 119 Edition

After an unsuccessful stint in rehab, the Gambling Addiction Enabler has returned to do what it does best — make large, ill-advised wagers simply for the thrill of gambling. We’re not saying you should follow our betting advice, necessarily, but there are plenty of opportunities to beat the bookies at UFC 119, which goes down this Satuday in Indianapolis. The betting lines are below, courtesy of If you can’t afford to waste real money, please hit up MMA FightPicker and throw down some virtual PotatoChips on the fights. And if you don’t know what these numbers mean, please read this first.

Frank Mir (-220) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+215)
Ryan Bader (-165) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155)
Chris Lytle (-125) vs. Matt Serra (+120)
Evan Dunham (-204) vs. Sean Sherk (+190)
Melvin Guillard (-150) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)

CB Dollaway (-295) vs. Joe Doerksen (+270)
Matt Mitrione (-140) vs. Joey Beltran (+136)

Thiago Tavares (-290) vs. Pat Audinwood (+240)
Steve Lopez (-115) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)
T.J. Grant (-150) vs. Julio Paulino (+145)
Mark Hunt (-215) vs. Sean McCorkle (+200)

And away we go…

The Main Event: Even before the eye injury, we were leaning towards Frank Mir, who has more ways to win and is more reliable than Cro Cop in general. Now that Cro Cop admits he’ll be at a disadvantage if he can’t finish the fight quickly, that pretty much settles it for us. To be honest, -220 is a fairly conservative line, and a moderate straight bet on Mir seems like the way to go.

The Co-Headliner: If Lil’ Nog defeated Jason Brilz in impressive fashion, he’d probably be a favorite here. Instead, his last performance exposed some weaknesses that Bader can take advantage of. As long as Bader doesn’t engage in a straight boxing match with Nogueira, he could out-wrestle and overpower the Brazilian vet. I say put small action on the favorite.

As Long as We’re Betting on Favorites…: The new generation of fighters have simply evolved beyond Sean Sherk. Frankie Edgar already proved that, and undefeated rising star Evan Dunham will prove it again. Due to repeated injury withdrawals, Sherk hasn’t competed in 16 months. -204 on Dunham is a gift.

The Good ‘Dogs: Matt Mitrione is a great prospect, but keep in mind that he’s just 2-0, with both wins coming against guys who weren’t exactly UFC-level (Marcus Jones and Kimbo Slice). Not that Joey Beltran has any world-beaters on his resume — remember Rolles Gracie? anybody? — but he does have 13 more pro fights than Meathead does, against mostly legitimate competition. Also, I don’t know much about Pat Audinwood, other than the fact that he’s undefeated, he’s a former Abercrombie & Fitch model, and his nickname is "Awesomely Awesome." Still, when was the last time Thiago Tavares did anything that impressed you? As a seasoned vet, Tavares deserves to be a favorite over an unknown newcomer, but his 3-1 line is pushing it.

The Question Marks: I don’t even know what to make of that fact that a minor legend like Mark Hunt is making his UFC debut in a show-opening dark-match in Indianapolis, against a guy who’s never competed at heavyweight before — that’s what happens when you pick up five straight losses and your famously durable chin starts to crumble. On the other side of the coin, I have no idea what Sean McCorkle is actually capable of doing against an opponent who isn’t a morbidly obese punching-bag. I hope we get a chance to see this fight, but the outcome is too unpredictable for betting consideration. As for the Serra/Lytle rematch, I’m staying away from that one as well. Could be Fight of the Night, could be as boring as their TUF 4 Finale meeting. You never know.

Suggested Wagering Breakdown, Based on Hypothetical $50 Stake:
– $20 on Dunham
– $15 on Mir
– $7 on Bader 
– $5 on Beltran
– $3 on Audinwood
– No "Official CagePotato Parlay" this time. Mir and Dunham are the only bets that feel like locks; stack on another name at your own risk.


Cagepotato Comments

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JaredB- September 21, 2010 at 9:41 pm
Great line on Crocop, sorry. Mir is 1-2 in his last three fights with the win coming quickly over Kongo (pretty much the only way to beat Kongo, or getting a gift from idiot judges as Herring got). My mistake. Mir has an awful record and isn't deserving of the ranking love he gets.
JaredB- September 21, 2010 at 9:33 pm
This gambling advice is absolutely terrible, if you were to be fool enough to bet on MMA, especially the UFC, you wouldn't want to waste the opportunity to take the great lines on Mir, Beltran, Serra, Audinwood, and Nogueira who should be favored but for mystifying reasons are not.

This is the same site who thought Frankie Edgar would be brutalized by BJ Penn, and then thought BJ Penn just had a bad fight the first time out. Sometimes when I read these I think nobody actually watches the fights or notices the style matchups or the fighters.

Crocop is especially dangerous for a barely durable, poor chinned guy like MIr. This is a hell of a show to gamble on, if you are going to be so reckless, folks.
Kimbos Bread- September 21, 2010 at 5:56 pm

o fo sho.

Here's to swimmin' with bow legged women!

Frank Mir (-220) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+215)
Ryan Bader (-165) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155)
Chris Lytle (-125) vs. Matt Serra (+120)
Evan Dunham (-204) vs. Sean Sherk (+190)
Melvin Guillard (-150) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)

CB Dollaway (-295) vs. Joe Doerksen (+270)
Matt Mitrione (-140) vs. Joey Beltran (+136)

Thiago Tavares (-290) vs. Pat Audinwood (+240)
Steve Lopez (-115) vs. Waylon Lowe (-115)
T.J. Grant (-150) vs. Julio Paulino (+145)
Mark Hunt (-215) vs. Sean McCorkle (+200)
ghostboner- September 21, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Hey BruceB, I love that rapid "point to guy's corner" thing when you do the intros. It gets me every time. You da man.
ghostboner- September 21, 2010 at 5:48 pm
I want CroCop to win with all my heart and soul, but I think Mir will prob take it by sub.

And the Guy who WASN'T an Abercrombie model.
DazedNConfused- September 21, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Crocop r2 right hook.

What? no love? haha
GogoGadgetPlata- September 21, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Am I the only one who thinks this poster has a Burger King feel to it?
Kid Clam Curtains- September 21, 2010 at 4:00 pm
I'm just not that moist about this card. Maybe I'm just talking myself into that since I can't watch it on Saturday. Or maybe it kind of sucks, by UFC standards.
Turd Furgeson- September 21, 2010 at 3:24 pm

I CONCURRRR!!!!!!!!!!11!!1one!
Shrigs- September 21, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Personally, I don't think I could ever consider Frank Mir a "lock". Same goes for Cro Cop though at this point, so to me that fight is pretty risky.

I think RwR is onto something with the Sherk comment. Fact is, the dude is still a good wrestler. If he can get rid of that boxer mentality, then he's surely got a shot at snagging a decision against Dunham.

I like Melvin at his odds too. I think he's gonna handle Stephens pretty easily. Melvin's got some good evasiveness when it comes to slipping punches, and is definitely a good striker himself. Stephens is good, but is too much of a brawler for this style. Melvin + Jackson's = Good things, and I expect to see him keep rolling here.

All in all, there aren't a ton of fights I'd even consider laying money down on this card, there's a lot of toss ups if you ask me, and the odds reflect that. It does mean there's money to be made however, if you got a good feeling about somebody.
Bruce_Buffer- September 21, 2010 at 2:47 pm

All caps for emphasis. But seriously, i hope he knocks mcSnorkle out, cause i wanna see him in action.
Flying_Taint_Punch- September 21, 2010 at 2:39 pm
I would have thought that the UFC would bring a better card to Naptown for their first event here. I figured to be all exicted and stuff about going to see a UFC PPV, instead I'm just meh.....
MoTropolis- September 21, 2010 at 2:30 pm
LMAO @ Clyde
RwilsonR- September 21, 2010 at 1:58 pm
I gotta say that CroCop's confidence is inspiring. Add in an eye injury, and as much as I want him to kick Mir's head off, this is looking bad.

For underdogs I think there are a few decent bets.

I think Sherk is a good underdog bet. He says he has learned a lot recently, so maybe he learned that he isn't a boxer. If so, I could easily see him winning the UD. I think Dunham could just as easily take it, but as a dog, Sherk looks like pretty good money.

I could also see Doerksen pulling out a sub on Dollaway. Dollaway gets way too excited in there and leaves himself open, and Doerksen can absord a lot and still grab a guillotine, or something.

And who knows what the fuck is up with Hunt. I think he finally passed that hippo he ate several years back. McCorkle is kinda slow and sloppy, but I don't know what to think about it.

Clyde- September 21, 2010 at 1:56 pm
CB has a great sub defense; he taps once, the ref breaks them off, he denies everything. It's bulletproof.
SpicyMcHagis- September 21, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Nothing about Doerksen? I think he definitely has a chance to submit CB. Dude has slick subs and CB has questionable sub defense
Nealio- September 21, 2010 at 1:40 pm
I think Evan Dunham and Charles Oliveira are going to take this 155 class by storm. Both of those guys have come outta nowhere and have been putting on a clinic.
DangadaDang- September 21, 2010 at 1:39 pm
What about Lytle Serra 2?