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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 126 Edition

Super Bowl weekend. For America’s degenerate gamblers it’s like Christmas, St. Patrick’s Day and the Day of Eternal Judgment all rolled into one. The so-called experts estimate that over $100 million wordwide could change hands in bets on the Super Bowl this year. Slightly less than that will probably be wagered on Saturday night’s UFC 126, but as long as some of it winds up in your pocket, who’s complaining? To help you in that quest for the rich stuff, the Gambling Addiction Enabler is back.

See below for fight odds as of this writing (they appear to be changing pretty fast, more evidence that there are lot of bored gamblers playing out the string until Sunday’s kickoff). An explanation of what it all means is right here, though if you need that right now might not be the best time to jump into this thing with both feet. For the rest of you, let’s start earning, shall we?

Anderson Silva (-280) vs. Vitor Belfort (+225)
Forrest Griffin (+145) vs. Rich Franlkin (-175)
Jake Ellenberger (-400) vs. Carlos Eduard Rocha (+260)
Jon Jones (-350) vs. Ryan Bader (+270)
Miguel Torres (-500) vs. Antonio Banuelos (+325)

Paul Kelly (+260) vs. Donald Cerrone (-340)
Chad Mendes (-300) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (+265)


Demetrious Johnson (+115) vs. Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto (-140)


Gabe Ruediger (+170) vs. Paul Taylor (-210)
Kyle Kingsbury (-145) vs. Ricardo Romero (+115)
Mike Pierce (-325) vs. Kenny Robertson (+250)

The Main Event: Vitor Belfort will break your heart, son. Believe that. I know he looks intriguing at +225, but keep in mind this is a man with a decade-long track record of fading down the stretch in big fights. If he’s going to beat Andy Silva, it’ll likely have to be an early knockout. If this thing goes to deep water, I can’t see Belfort hanging with the champ. Meanwhile, Silva is just as worthless at -280. You’ve got money you won’t miss, are buying into the hype of Belfort as Silva’s “biggest test on the feet” and think the 35-year-old “Spider” ain’t what he used to be? Lay it (softly). Otherwise, steer clear.

The Fight for the Future:
How do you balance the fact that Ryan Bader opened paying out a whopping +270 against the cold reality that absolutely nobody likes him to beat Jon Jones? Answer: Fuck everybody. Exercise some restraint, but bet Bader here, especially if you’re a big shot, rolling around with the pockets of your skinny jeans overflowing with Monopoly money. Is it crazy? Sure it is, but that’s why they call it gambling. I legitimately think this fight will be closer than most people expect and with odds like that I would gladly lose a comparatively small sum for the chance at fairly epic returns on my investment.   

The Good Dogs: Well, I feel compelled to point out that oddmakers went ahead and made the No. 4 featherweight in the world (Omigawa) damn near a 3-1 underdog against a dude (Mendes) who has yet to crack the 145-pound Top 10 in either the Sherdog or USA Today consensus rankings. Then again, Omigawa is winless in the Octagon and will be making his first stateside appearance since 2008. Meanwhile, there’s absolutely no way to tell exactly how good Mendes could be. Eh, take Omigawa. At least if he loses you won’t be the only one who looks like a fool.

There are some other compelling underdogs on this card, though the odds aren’t quite as eye-popping. Considering his size advantage and the fact that Rich Franklin hasn’t seemed totally pumped about fighting at 205-pounds, take a flier on Forrest Griffin at +145. In addition, it’s not totally out of the question that Rocha (+260), Rudiger (+170) and Romero (+115) could all sneak out with victories. That’s right, we’re playing the Rs.

Official CagePotato Players Ball Parlay Party:
Well, they’re favorites for a reason. You want a sure thing, combo Torres + Jones + Yamamoto + Pierce. You have the itch to get crazy? Throw whichever dog you like best on the end. It’s me? I’d take FoGriff. Just don’t come around crying when said dog blows up your spot. Oh, and take the Pack (-2.5) over Rapelisberger and the Steelers on Sunday in Dallas. You just can’t fuck with Aaron Rodgers right now.


Cagepotato Comments

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Nut Puncher 9000- February 4, 2011 at 3:39 am
For anyone foolish enough to still actually be considering a bet on Bader let a smart person slap you in your face with the fact that Jones has a 10.5 inch reach advantage. Yeah, you read that correctly... 10.5

You're Welcome.
dranokills- February 2, 2011 at 11:07 pm
There's a reason why Jones is at -500.
Jones is NOT at -500, perhaps you need to go look again.
I think Bader will beat Jones, and I will also take that bet.
As for Griffin vs Franklin, I find it awkward and uncomfortable to watch those 2 fight, but I think Griffin really knows he needs this win and will pull it off.
I can only wish that belfort will get lucky and knock Anderson out. I know I would certainly enjoy the fuck out of seeing that happen.
rampageisgod- February 2, 2011 at 8:10 pm
I believe his name is Roethlisraper.
ghostboner- February 2, 2011 at 5:13 pm
@Rwilson - Put him on his back for a few rounds? I'd like to see Bader land a nasty uppercut and knock Jones face into a hilarious contortion similar to Rashad's Machida face. And I don't like Bader, I'm just sick of Jones. I agree, I think Bader has a better chance than everyone is giving him, but unfortunately the Jones who took Bonnar to decision was long ago, and I imagine he has gotten better since then. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed and sacrificing some virgins on Bader's behalf though.
DangadaDang- February 2, 2011 at 4:49 pm
And there's no way in hell I'm laying money on Kelly over Cerrone. Kelly has never proven himself to be anything above a middle tier fighter on his good days.
DangadaDang- February 2, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Rudiger? Really? I know Taylor hasn't fought in a while and isn't that impressive but...Rudiger?
mt59801- February 2, 2011 at 4:33 pm
one word..... cowboy....... who the fuck made the odds on the cerone fight??

I should add that I'm fan of the cowboy's work, but that last fight was long and brutal and I'm not convinced that he's gonna walk into this @ 100%.
superflat- February 2, 2011 at 4:25 pm
To me, the good dogs are Demetrious Johnson and Banuelos. I don't like Yamamoto to win anything given his ups and downs lately, and especially not Stateside in the Octagon. Also, Johnson looked dynamic in his last outing, whereas Yamamoto seems like he'll be looking for a big shot that won't come. Another Japanese legend will be exposed, sadly.

Banuelos, because he's tough and Torres seems vulnerable (and those be huge odds). A solid small bet.

I'm far less willing to put money on Bader, for the simple reason that yes, while the ON PAPER the logic of a Bader victory is sound, NOBODY thinks it's going to happen. There's a reason why Jones is at -500.
RwilsonR- February 2, 2011 at 3:41 pm
I don't actually think Bader is gonna win, I just can't resist putting the bill money towards a good +270.

Honestly, though, I think Bader has more of a chance than people think. If Jones is able to set the pace, throw him off his game, put him on his back, and swarm him with elbows, Bader will fold just like the rest of Jones competition has. But I'm not sure what will happen if Jones isn't able to dictate the fight early. We have watched him smash guys in 2 minutes or less recently, but he also isn't so far removed from taking Andre Gusmao and Stefan Bonnar to a decision. He dominated those decisions, but if Bader is able to draw it out, he may be able to put Jones in some places we have never seen him before. I actually have Jones winning this, but I'd love to see Bader really test him. I'd love to see how Jones handles being put on his back and ground on for a round or two. Not because that is the most exciting style of fighting, but because I'd like to see what he is made of in those bad spots.
p4pbestwriter- February 2, 2011 at 2:05 pm
@Rwilsonr-Whats your reasoning behind choosing Bader? I have been thinking this whole time Jones is going to win but the more and more video I watch I am kind of on the the fence.
ghostboner- February 2, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Dammit Dundas!!! Soares' jinx wasn't enough, you had to throw in a little extra to make sure Victor wins?

I like the odds on Bader, and I think Banuelos is looking ok at +325. Never count out a guy with a dirty stache. I doubt either of them will win, but at their respective underdog margins, I see some bets worth takin. Also, GO CERRONE!
RSparrow- February 2, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Gooner- February 2, 2011 at 1:26 pm
I got a feeling (in no way biased by my nationality) that Paul Kelly could suprise the Cowboy and setup a night of somewhat big upsets. Belfort/Kelly/Bader to win

+270 on Bader ? I'll take that bet..........If i was Jones I'de be a bit worried waiting for the 5th Feb. His god may still be a bit pre-occupied that night trying to rid the world of a few more Australians with a bit more bad weather.
RSparrow- February 2, 2011 at 12:55 pm
I'm parlaying Torres, Jones & Franklin, playa.

If I get hammered, there may be a final bet made on the iphone for the finale, in which case I'll go with my boy Jesus.
RwilsonR- February 2, 2011 at 12:30 pm
That settles it - I just put all of my money on Bader. Two-and-a-half times my mortgage payment will be a real nice payout!
LOKI- February 2, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Fuck the fudge-packers, Steelers FTW! (Ihave to pretend to care because I'm from PA)

As far as dogs go, I just dont see a dude who manhandled Shogun and Rampage in succession loosing to a guy whos is basically a sligtly faster and much smaller version of himself with a weaker ground game.

Plus I always bet against a dude who feels the need to mention that he reads the bible in his spare time.
Get Off Me- February 2, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Jones def. Bader:
I picked Bader to beat Lil' Nog, because I believed youth and wrestling beats old and striking more times than not.
In this case I do not see one aspect of Bader's game that outmatches Jon Jones.
Wrestling is what most will say, but Matyushenko and Hammill were both excellent grapplers and they got served by Jones. The longer this fight goes the more Jones will be likely to win and I do not see Bader being able to do anything about dropping a decision to Bones.

Mighty mouse def Kid:
24 vs 33 , a relatively inactive post prime japanese fighter coming into the cage for the first time versus a very game hungry young prospect, Kid will be blanketed for 3 rounds.

Mendes def Omigawa:
25 v 35!, Mendes is like the Jon Fitch of the featherweights, just like his first stint(when he was in his prime) I do not see Omigawa being able to handle Chad's wrestling at all, 30-27 three times for Mendes

Good dogs:
Johnson-De Rocha-Griffin(was going for Rich but the more I think about it, rich got ko'd by Vitor and while he found Chuck's off switch like everyone else, he was losing that first round, I think Forrest wins decision with size and legs kicks to set up takedowns or Randy Couture control against the fence)

Fedor Penn- February 2, 2011 at 11:45 am
I'll be putting money on the Steelers and Forrest.
El Guapo- February 2, 2011 at 11:45 am
Betting against Big Ben in the Super Bowl will get your wallet raped, playa. I don't even like the Steelers and I know that..

Forrest +145 is the way to go, brrro.
BigPhil- February 2, 2011 at 11:45 am
Don't sleep on Robertson. I'm puttin good money on him.
Gabe "Cake Killer" Ruediger too, if he gets a good enema and makes weight.
MMAMoneyLine- February 2, 2011 at 11:40 am
I'm in total agreement with the Bader piece. I think Jones should be the favorite, but it'll be a lot closer than the lines imply.

The Griffin/Franklin fight is a coin flip in my opinion...odds look good on Griffin to me.

I'm surprised you don't have any thoughts on the Johnson/Yamamoto fight. Some cards have Kid at around the -110 mark against Johnson.