(This one ain’t no beauty pageant.)

It’s that old gambler’s dilemma: There are a bunch of fairly big time dogs on the card at this Saturday’s UFC 127 … which means there are also a bunch of guys who are probably not going to win their fights. The numbers are what they are (read: juicy) precisely to make our betting fingers itchy, to make us consider throwing down on dudes we normally wouldn’t give a second look. When it’s all said and done though, what good is an underdog if he doesn’t have a chance to actually win? At times like this, it’s imperative that we don’t let our own greed so cloud our mindbrains that we lose sight of reality. Wheat from chaff, people, wheat from chaff.

Luckily for you (and our many, many creditors) we wouldn’t even be having this conversation if deep down we didn’t believe we were smarter than the bookies. At least in the weird, fringe backwater that is MMA betting. Yep, we’ve pretty much got UFC 127 dialed in. After the jump, we share our get-rich quick scheme. All listed odds are from Sportsbook.com. Why? Because those dudes might actually pay you if you win.
MAIN CARD FIGHTS:
Jon Fitch (-200) vs. B.J. Penn (+160)
Michael Bisping (-350) vs. Jorge Rivera (+275)
Dennis Siver  (+260) vs. George Sotiropoulos (-340)
Chris Lytle (-265) vs. Brian Ebersole (+205)
Chris Camozzi (+175) vs. Kyle Noke (-215)

ION TELEVISION PRELIMS:
Spencer Fisher (+145) vs. Ross Pearson (-175)
Alexander Gustafsson (-340) vs. James Te Huna (+260)
Riki Fukuda (-130) vs. Nick Ring (Even)

FACEBOOK PRELIMS:
Jason Reinhardt (+235) vs. Tiequan Zhang (-295)
Tom Blackledge (-180)  vs. Anthony Perosh (+150)

DARK MATCHES:
Mark Hunt (+215) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (-275)
Maciej Jewtuszko (-155) vs. Curt Warburton (+125)

The Main Event: A couple of lesser-known sites have Penn going off as high as +180 against professional lean-to Jon Fitch. Course, those sites are probably also run by Russian gangsters who spend the rest of their free time pretending to be hot chicks who really, really want to be your Facebook friends, so we say stick with the odds makers you’ve heard of. Even at +160 BJ is worth a sniff  … but only with money you never care to see again. Look, Penn’s takedown defense is other-worldly and when he’s got his cardio together he’s capable of beating anybody on the planet (except, we guess, Frankie Edgar and GSP), but the rub here is that his level of fitness has never been stellar at welterweight. Meanwhile, you’ve Fitch prepared to give him the ol’ 15-minute-full-body-hug and that makes us tired just watching it. Do you think Penn can keep it on the feet long enough to win this with his hands? Then bet it, son. If not, skip this fight altogether.

The Colonial Throwdown: Sportsbook.com actually makes Rivera a longer long-shot than Dennis Siver, Mark Hunt or James Te Huna, which frankly is crazy. Do we think he’s gonna win? Nah, not really, but if we were in Australia with our pockets stuffed full of that rainbow-colored Mickey Mouse money they use as currency down there, we’d give some serious thought to going into a corner bodega and plunking a few coins down on Our Man Jorge at nearly 3-1. I mean, it’s just a pocket full of loose change. How much money could it really be. Right?

The Good Dogs: Aside from taking a wild swing on Penn and/or Rivera, there’s not a lot of stuff out there right now that knocks us out. Absolutely steer clear of Siver, Hunt, The Tuna and Curt Warburton. From where we’re sitting though, the other four Ion/Facebook prelims are pick ’ems in the real world, so take which ever guy you like best and roll the dice.

Official CagePotato Parlay: We came just a Kid Yamamoto pants-crapping away from hitting our Party Parlay during Super Bowl weekend. Isn’t that always the way it works? At UFC 127 the only slam-bang lock we see is also a real tongue-twister: Sotiropoulos + Jewtuszko + Tuchscherer + Gustafsson. Say that shit five times fast. Anyway, you won’t pay off your house with it, but you might be able to buy your girlfriend something nice … ish. Just make sure your wife doesn’t find out, or you might be staying in Australia.

(CD)