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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 129 Edition

If you believe the odds makers, we’ll all be paying good money to watch a bunch of epic squash matches during this Saturday’s UFC 129 pay-per-view. There are a lot of long, long odds on the card this weekend and while that may not be great news for the squares watching at home, it’s enough to make any self respecting gambler’s heart go pitter-pat inside his silky, hula girl print Hawaiian shirt. When the numbers are this big you really only have two options, boys and girls: Bet heavy on the favorites in a sober attempt to turn a meager profit or throw down  on the dogs in a blind smorgasbord of wanton excess. Any wonder which route we’re gonna take? That’s right, friends, we’re taking the more funner-er route. The odds themselves – from Bookmaker.com – are after the jump.

Pay Per View Card:

Georges St. Pierre (-420) vs. Jake Shields (+320)
Jose Aldo (-425) vs. Mark Hominick (+325)
Jason Brilz (Even) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-130)
Randy Couture (+280) vs. Lyoto Machida (-350)
Mark Bocek (Even) vs. Ben Henderson (-130)

Spike TV Card:

Nate Diaz (-130) vs. Rory MacDonald (Even)
Jake Ellenberger (-205) vs. Sean Pierson (+165)

The case for the dogs: Now, if we were involved in some kind of lame-o straight-up picks competition, the right thing to do here would be to tab St. Pierre, Aldo and maybe Machida. But you know what? We’re not here to take all the favorites and then pass our no-balls bullshit off as some kind of “predictions” piece. In fact, we’re going the opposite direction. Any time you can get competitors like Shields, Hominick and Couture at these odds, it should at least be enough to make you think twice. OK, here comes the math …

If we throw $100 at each of the aforementioned trio (which should be easy, cuz we just got our tax returns back, right?) we really only need one of them to win in order to pretty much break even. Anything above and beyond that is all gravy. For some reason, it makes us feel better to think we’re just betting that one or more of the evening’s big fights will end in upsets, rather than selecting three individuals who the so-called experts think have little to no chance. Just one or two upsets, baby, that’s all we need. Better hope it happens, too, because we’re going have a tough time explaining to the wife where all the “new lawnmower” money went if at least one of these pikers doesn’t come through for us.

You’re all, “That’s great, Ace Rothstein, but now can you give me something a little more realistic?”: Definitely, and their names are Bocek, Brilz and MacDonald. Bocek isn’t a bad bet, considering the way Ben Henderson takes a “like-to-see-a-motherfucker-try” approach to submission defense. Meanwhile, if the Brilz-Matyushenko fight had gone down in a dank gym somewhere in Belorussia in 1997, we’d totally like Vladdy. Unfortunately, at this stage in the game it’s not out of the question that Brilz will be able to outwrestle the aged journeyman en route to some form of decision. And after watching MacDonald give Carlos Condit all he could handle for 14:30 at UFC 115, we won’t call you crazy if you like him to upset Nate Diaz.

Course, MacDonald is also coming off an injury and word is he bulked up a lot while on the mend. No telling if the weight cut or rust might effect the kid, so approach with caution. If it’s us, we probably take Brilz and call it good.

So, who to avoid at all costs?: Since Sean Pierson will be facing a better version of himself in Jake Ellenberger, we’d steer clear of that one. Also, with the odds so prohibitive, we don’t really like Machida, especially considering the way his last few fights have gone. Granted, he’ll probably knock Randy out and break our hearts – not to mention busting our parlay – but we just can’t justify laying any scratch on him at -350.

Official CagePotato Shoeless Joe’s Pre-Party Parlays: Remember, a parlay is a whole different animal from picking Shields, Hominick and Couture to win their individual fights. To win this baby, we need all these guys to bring home the W. So, two options: For the more straight-laced wagerers out there, go with something like St. Pierre-Aldo-Brilz-Ellenberger. You want to walk on the wildside with us? Let ‘er rip with Shields-Hominick-Couture. Because why the fuck not?

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stopdrinkingpee- April 28, 2011 at 9:18 pm
I'm pretty sure it's just called Belarus, even in 1997.
The_Dead_Cow- April 27, 2011 at 11:29 pm
@Sparrow +1, gotta go with Couture with those odds. Nice pics.
RSparrow- April 27, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Gotta go Diaz, Couture, Aldo, Pierre.

Dangadang, better put your piss where your mouth is... and post that shit.
IsnappedYourarm- April 27, 2011 at 3:05 pm
I'd like to say thank you for the GSP fanboys for the money I'm about to win.
Nut Puncher 9000- April 27, 2011 at 2:08 pm
Couture WANTED this fight ladies...He will stalk and clinch Machida much like Page did for the win (maybe a little dirty boxing too). At +280 and now add that DangadaDang will drink his piss, this is a good bet.

Shields is a good singular play at these odds but not Parlay.

Hominick = Pompeii Aldo = Mt. Vesuvius
Dont bet on Hominick here unless its a friendly wager on whether or not he will be dead when its over. The UFC is not going to set up there first Featherweight Champ for a loss first time out people. This is ALL HYPE (and the fact Hominick is Canadian)
Aldo's last 3 = Faber, Brown, and an undeserving(nobody left) Gamburyan. Hominick"s last 3 = Yves Jabouin, Garcia, and Roop. ROOP! Hominick's last real test was Grispi and he was sub'd 3mins into round 1.
El Guapo- April 27, 2011 at 1:45 pm
^^Daaaaaaaaaaaang
BigShig- April 27, 2011 at 1:31 pm
I have $5 on another "Grease Gate" scandal.
DangadaDang- April 27, 2011 at 12:55 pm
If Couture beats Machida I will drink my own piss.
El Guapo- April 27, 2011 at 12:48 pm
"I got money in the bank, shawty what you drank" official wager... Randy +280 to give Machida the business
FightZen- April 27, 2011 at 12:30 pm
@Kid Clam Curtains- I think that's what we call a "back handed explanation". Outstanding.
LOKI- April 27, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Even in his home town, you should never bet on a canadian ginger especially against 20 something black jezus coming off his first loss.
On the other hand at even money I would definately pick Rory MacDonald to out wrestle Nate for 15 minutes.
DonPedro- April 27, 2011 at 12:23 pm
I like Diaz and Henderson one unit each. Couture and Shields are good value for half a unit each. I don't think Aldo will lose though. I'd stay away from that one.
intercept440- April 27, 2011 at 12:20 pm
shields????? win??????? more like zzzzzzzzzzzzz
sp00ki kabuki- April 27, 2011 at 11:46 am
Gonna put a bill on shields. Thought he was gonna win anyway. Don't see y the odds makers are giving him less of a chance than they did kos
Kid Clam Curtains- April 27, 2011 at 11:40 am
@destinationblood

$100 bet @ +320 = winner paid $320
$100 bet @ -420 = winner paid $23.81

the - shows what you'd have to bet to win $100 ($420)
the + shows what you'd make if you bet $100 ($320)

hope that helps. If not, eat shit.
destinationblood- April 27, 2011 at 11:15 am
wait so what does the + - thing means?.......
BigShig- April 27, 2011 at 10:48 am
Little Boots (-1000)
BigShig- April 27, 2011 at 10:45 am
Shields at +320 is worth a look. Thought the odds would be a little closer.
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