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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 140 Edition

Last week, we let none other than The Great Potato step in and give you guys some gambling advice for the TUF 14 Finale. He went spuds out, gambling his son Tater’s future college fund on a parlay that included Jason Miller and T.J. Dillashaw. He has since gone into hiding and refused to answer any of our calls. Now that UFC 140 is on the horizon, we bring you some saweet betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice, in order to ensure his children receive the education they deserve.

Main Card
Jon Jones (-440) vs. Lyoto Machida (+350)
Frank Mir (-250) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria (+210)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (-225) vs. Tito Ortiz (+175)
Brian Ebersole (-125) vs. Claude Patrick (-105)
Mark Hominick (-380) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+290)

The Main Event: The fact that Lyoto Machida is listed with a slightly better chance to beat Jones than Rampage Jackson, a.k.a the last person to beat Machida, is intriguing to say the least. We all know Lyoto has stepped up his training camp for this bout, and packed on an incredible 21 pounds of muscle to try and deal with the size and strength of Jones, but will this weight gain hinder the Dragon’s renowned elusiveness? And despite Jones’ near immortal stature among the UFC’s light heavyweight division, there is still one huge facet of his game that has yet to be tested, his chin.

Now, all you have to do is give Jones a once-over to see that he does not have what Joe Rogan would label “a fighter’s chin.” Guys like Cabbage Correira, Mark Hunt, and even Rampage all have one thing in common; a wide jaw structure, with it coming the ability to absorb punishment. Guys like Mirko Cro Cop, Kendall Grove, and Andrei Arlovski, on the other hand, all have a slender, narrow jaw structure similar to that of Jones, and have been susceptible to knockout losses. So if Lyoto is able to find his chin, we could be treated to some stanky leg action come Saturday night. But the flaw in this theory is that of Lyoto’s well known game-plan. Machida is best known for staying on the outside and choosing his shots, which he won’t be able to do against a guy as lengthy as Jones. Expect the champ have his way with a tentative to engage Machida, eventually finishing him in the 3rd or 4th round with a ground and pound TKO.

The Nogs: Despite the fact that Mir had his way with him the first time around, Big Nog looks pretty damn tempting at +215. But here’s the problem, how exactly is Rodrigo going to win this one? I don’t see him subbing a high caliber BJJ practitioner like Mir, and his KO win over Brendan Schaub, who you can add to that list of narrow jawed fighters, didn’t exactly convince me that his boxing was any better than it has been in the past. And though Mir has looked a bit sluggish in his victories over Cro Cop and Roy Nelson, he still has enough tools to put a hurting on our favorite bridesmaid, and considering his last two performances, expect him to try and finish this one a bit earlier.

As for little Nog, I can’t see why he’s such a favorite considering his underwhelming performances as of late, and in fact, I’m really liking Ortiz as the underdog. He has the speed and wrestling game that allowed Phil Davis and Ryan Bader to control Nog from start to finish, and Rogerio just hasn’t shown enough recently to dispute that. Ortiz has got this one, ladies and gentlemen, likely by UD.

The tough call: Claude Patrick has been on a roll in his UFC career thus far, and the same can be said for Brian Ebersole. But take a closer look at Ebersole’s record; with the exception of Lytle and arguably Hallman, Ebersole hasn’t been able to beat upper-level competition, and has dropped nine of his losses by submission. Taking on a submission savant like Patrick could prove to be his undoing, and could be worth putting a 20 spot on. But I’ll be damned if I bet against a guy with as much swagger as Ebersole.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Jones + Mir + Ortiz + Hominick

50 bucks nets you 248.42, which can buy you any one of those Topps UFC Moment of Truth trading cards your parents refuse to get you for Christmas. There’s nothing childish about gathering a respectable collection, Mom!


Cagepotato Comments

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RSparrow- December 6, 2011 at 11:43 pm
Only Parlay I have ever agreed with. I can't believe we have to sit through 2 Nogueras in a row... Fuckin' retarded. Lil Nog sucks.
XENOPHON- December 6, 2011 at 10:00 pm
I'd take that poster too, if I could get Dana's mug airbrushed out first.
Hey time you make a special edition - save the human race shirt - make a Jonah Mowry T-shirt.
SnackDaddy- December 6, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Fuck CagePotato's predictions-- they have never been proven right in the past, what I want to know is, where can I get a hold of that poster (the one in the main pic)?
Todd M- December 6, 2011 at 9:31 pm
@ Teila Tuli, Tito has never been knocked out cold (sadly) the TKO's were from a rampaging Chuck where Tito wilted under pressure and a body shot from Rashad, Tito has a granite chin. I din't think Danga is to far off the money with Jaw size in relation to taking a shot, I agree Teila that it is not that simple to say a big jaw takes a good shot, every fighter is different, but I think the size and shape of someones jaw does play a factor, The guys Danga mentioned are or were known to take a hell of a shot. Cardio is also a factor as we have seen with fighters like Diaz and Alvarez who are known to take a knock down or two and keep coming forward. As for my picks I'm going to go with Jones, Mir, Ortiz and Hominick, I also think that Tito should be the favourite in this one.
Get Off Me- December 6, 2011 at 8:32 pm
Jones/Machida over 3 rounds prop, Jones to win by decision will be plus money.
I like your parlay Danga.
I got Ebersole-Mir-Tito-Hominick.
Nothing wrong with Mir/Jones, much better than Saunders-Yamamoto-Escovedo.
XENOPHON- December 6, 2011 at 3:45 pm
@El Guapo
Ohh you sneaking fucker you, I almost didn't catch that little quip....GRIN
I stopped drinking (for the most part) years ago. So how that be?
hummm...maybe its you with the great memory, reflecting on the Cabo snafu...
A worthy opponent you are..stalking in the shadows, while I sit sulking (BIGGER GRIN)
jfjjfjff- December 6, 2011 at 2:50 pm
i stand corrected, and upon further reflection the numbers make more sense; 4 man parlay with two heavy favorites. i would throw ebersole into that mix to yeild a 5 man, 9.74x payout parlay.
DangadaDang- December 6, 2011 at 2:33 pm
You would think that, but according to my various parlay calculators, it comes out to that exact figure.
jfjjfjff- December 6, 2011 at 2:27 pm
i think you did your parlay math wrong? 50 bucks should net you a lot more than 250 if you made a single bet that all of those fighters would win.
jfjjfjff- December 6, 2011 at 2:23 pm
i think that's good money if you bet on machida. clearly the odds are swung more based on who is putting money down rather than the chances of winning.
mattleung- December 6, 2011 at 12:20 pm
that was the only acceptable way u could've included kendall grove in the same sentence as mirko cro cop and arlovski. i like the analysis despite the community coming forward with their "shut up Danga" comments
MediocreThreat- December 6, 2011 at 12:06 pm
$7000 on Machida.
Sloppyspray- December 6, 2011 at 11:57 am
@TheWarsawExpress - THANK YOU!!! Finally, someone who has watched an Arlovski fight. Everyone's gotta stop hating on my boy Arlovski, AHHHHH! I've been saying this over and over again, he doesn't have a glass jaw/weak chin. Getting knocked out does not equal weak chin when you're getting knocked out by: A) Fedor overhand murderball, B) 265 Lb Brett Rogers putting his fist through your face while your head is against the cage, C) see B) but replace with Kharitonov. Dude just doesn't move his head AT ALL, he only knows how to move directly backwards until he hits the cage and then gets a fist through his mouth. Until he's getting dropped by punches of average power then he doesn't have a weak chin. That is all.
And no discussion of the Korean Zombie? I think him and Hominick is gonna be a good fight.
Kid Clam Curtains- December 6, 2011 at 11:37 am
You guys need to cool it with this narrow chin bullshit. I mean are you kidding me? Cabbage has a "wider jaw structure" than Arlovski?
aaronb- December 6, 2011 at 11:14 am
What harm is there in using that 50 buck on a Jones/Mir 2 man parlay? It won't make you rich...But turning 50 into 86 is better than turning it into 0.

Just saying.
TheWarsawExpress- December 6, 2011 at 11:12 am
Arlovski just seems to have a weak chin. What he really has is bad head movement in a division where you can't afford to get hit even once.
Viva Hate- December 6, 2011 at 11:11 am
Danga, why didn’t you factor the tiny chin of Machida into your equitation, making it easy as anything to figure that Jones will kill Machida.Your theory does suck though.
I give Danga credit, he is spot on that Tito will win this fight.
aaronb- December 6, 2011 at 11:09 am
Since when has Tito shown a suspect chin? @TeilaTuliTooth

I don't recall one time EVER that he has lost consciousness in a fight?

Randy Couture also had a good chin most of his career. He didn't even see a KO until he was almost 40 years old.

I do believe that once a chin starts to go, it never really improves though. Arlovski, Chuck and Joe Daddy have all reached a point where you can never trust their chins to hold up. Even in bouts where they were the superior skilled fighter.
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Liverpunch- December 6, 2011 at 10:48 am
Stating the obvious (Jones has a long reach) + nonsensical observations (chins vs. jaws) + poor judgment (ORTIZ FOR THE WIN!) = another failed article.
The good news (for you) is I almost made it half way through this one. The bad news (for me) is I didn't quit soon enough.
El Guapo- December 6, 2011 at 10:47 am
Ever since Brock beat the bejebus out of Mir, he's been punch drunk like Xeno at a Christmas party(that he wasn't invited to). Not saying Nogueira's gonna win, but no way Frankie should be a 2 to 1 favorite.
RoJoegan- December 6, 2011 at 10:45 am
Thanks for owning up (sort of) to last week’s predictions. That poster is awesome. And as for Rogan’s (Danga's) theory, I’d say there is a correlation between the size of one’s melon/chin/jaw and his or her ability to take a punch, but there are also lots of other factors involved. Relevant to note that Jones does have a tiny head for a cage fighter.
TeilaTuliTooth- December 6, 2011 at 10:44 am
@ Casa - I agree on the head full of rocks, but he has been tko'd twice and gets rocked quite easily.
Diego Sanchez, narrow face, hard chin. Matt Hughes, huge face, easy chin. And on and on.
Almost all the Polinesian fighters have rock solid chins. Its a friggin mystery, not obvious as Danga would have it. Sheesh.
Casa de los pantelones- December 6, 2011 at 10:33 am
To my knowledge, Tito has never been knocked out. He has a head full of rocks.
BryanF- December 6, 2011 at 10:33 am
I'm willing to bet...that that poster is shopped.