Last week, we let none other than The Great Potato step in and give you guys some gambling advice for the TUF 14 Finale. He went spuds out, gambling his son Tater’s future college fund on a parlay that included Jason Miller and T.J. Dillashaw. He has since gone into hiding and refused to answer any of our calls. Now that UFC 140 is on the horizon, we bring you some saweet betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice, in order to ensure his children receive the education they deserve.
Jon Jones (-440) vs. Lyoto Machida (+350)
Frank Mir (-250) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria (+210)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (-225) vs. Tito Ortiz (+175)
Brian Ebersole (-125) vs. Claude Patrick (-105)
Mark Hominick (-380) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+290)
The Main Event: The fact that Lyoto Machida is listed with a slightly better chance to beat Jones than Rampage Jackson, a.k.a the last person to beat Machida, is intriguing to say the least. We all know Lyoto has stepped up his training camp for this bout, and packed on an incredible 21 pounds of muscle to try and deal with the size and strength of Jones, but will this weight gain hinder the Dragon’s renowned elusiveness? And despite Jones’ near immortal stature among the UFC’s light heavyweight division, there is still one huge facet of his game that has yet to be tested, his chin.
Now, all you have to do is give Jones a once-over to see that he does not have what Joe Rogan would label “a fighter’s chin.” Guys like Cabbage Correira, Mark Hunt, and even Rampage all have one thing in common; a wide jaw structure, with it coming the ability to absorb punishment. Guys like Mirko Cro Cop, Kendall Grove, and Andrei Arlovski, on the other hand, all have a slender, narrow jaw structure similar to that of Jones, and have been susceptible to knockout losses. So if Lyoto is able to find his chin, we could be treated to some stanky leg action come Saturday night. But the flaw in this theory is that of Lyoto’s well known game-plan. Machida is best known for staying on the outside and choosing his shots, which he won’t be able to do against a guy as lengthy as Jones. Expect the champ have his way with a tentative to engage Machida, eventually finishing him in the 3rd or 4th round with a ground and pound TKO.
The Nogs: Despite the fact that Mir had his way with him the first time around, Big Nog looks pretty damn tempting at +215. But here’s the problem, how exactly is Rodrigo going to win this one? I don’t see him subbing a high caliber BJJ practitioner like Mir, and his KO win over Brendan Schaub, who you can add to that list of narrow jawed fighters, didn’t exactly convince me that his boxing was any better than it has been in the past. And though Mir has looked a bit sluggish in his victories over Cro Cop and Roy Nelson, he still has enough tools to put a hurting on our favorite bridesmaid, and considering his last two performances, expect him to try and finish this one a bit earlier.
As for little Nog, I can’t see why he’s such a favorite considering his underwhelming performances as of late, and in fact, I’m really liking Ortiz as the underdog. He has the speed and wrestling game that allowed Phil Davis and Ryan Bader to control Nog from start to finish, and Rogerio just hasn’t shown enough recently to dispute that. Ortiz has got this one, ladies and gentlemen, likely by UD.
The tough call: Claude Patrick has been on a roll in his UFC career thus far, and the same can be said for Brian Ebersole. But take a closer look at Ebersole’s record; with the exception of Lytle and arguably Hallman, Ebersole hasn’t been able to beat upper-level competition, and has dropped nine of his losses by submission. Taking on a submission savant like Patrick could prove to be his undoing, and could be worth putting a 20 spot on. But I’ll be damned if I bet against a guy with as much swagger as Ebersole.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Jones + Mir + Ortiz + Hominick
50 bucks nets you 248.42, which can buy you any one of those Topps UFC Moment of Truth trading cards your parents refuse to get you for Christmas. There’s nothing childish about gathering a respectable collection, Mom!