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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 144 Edition


(In the main event, actor Ryan Reynolds defends his belt against a 100% Asian version of Ben Henderson. Plus, Rampage Jackson faces off against a prime Wes Sims. The referee for this evening will be Dan Miragliotta.)

The UFC’s return to Japan this weekend features plenty of attractive opportunities to earn money without working for it. So where do the edges lie? How much better will the UFC’s Japanese stars look on their home turf? And should you really be betting money with tax season coming up? (Just kidding, that one was a trick question.) Complete UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson odds are below, via BestFightOdds, followed by our occasionally-helpful betting advice. Check it out, and be sure to come back to CagePotato Saturday night for our liveblog of the fights, starting with the FX prelims broadcast at 8 p.m. ET.

MAIN CARD
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Ben Henderson (+115)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-237) vs. Ryan Bader (+220)
Cheick Kongo (-270) vs. Mark Hunt (+270)
Jake Shields (-300) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (+269)
Yushin Okami (-331) vs. Tim Boetsch (+300)
Hatsu Hioki (-167) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+155)
Anthony Pettis (-220) vs. Joe Lauzon (+220)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX)
Takanori Gomi (-200) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+175)
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (-288) vs. Vaughan Lee (+275)
Riki Fukuda (-300) vs. Steve Cantwell (+258)
Takeya Mizugaki (-200) vs. Chris Cariaso (+172)

PRELIMINARY BOUT (Facebook)
Tiequan Zhang (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+250)

The Main Event: At this point, we shouldn’t have to tell you not to bet against Frankie Edgar when a belt is on the line. The question is, do you put money on him at these odds, or awkwardly back out of the room? I have faith in Edgar’s tenacity, but Henderson has looked so outstanding in his 3-0 UFC stint that at the very least, it’ll be a dogfight decided on the slimmest of margins. I’m not leaving my money in the hands of the judges, and the smartest bet here is no bet at all.

The Co-Main Event: You have to understand how much this fight means to Quinton Jackson. His future is on the line, following his failed title challenge against Jon Jones last September. He’ll be fighting in front of his family, and the Japanese fans that made him a star in the first place. In short, motivation will not be an issue. Meanwhile, Ryan Bader will be stepping into Rampage’s world on Saturday night, and the enormity of the fight and the Saitama Super Arena crowd might be overwhelming. I think this is a favorable matchup for Rampage, as long as he can dodge Bader’s power-punches and stuff most of his takedowns. A modest bet on the favorite makes sense.

The Good ‘Dogs: Didn’t we learn our lesson when Joe Lauzon was marked as a 4-1 underdog against Melvin Guillard? Never sleep on J-Lau. Once again, the oddsmakers have set Joe up as the underdog, even though Pettis hasn’t quite lived up to his hype since coming over to the UFC. As soon as the fight hits the mat, the odds shift dramatically in Lauzon’s favor. I’m also leaning towards Bart Palaszewski over Hatsu Hioki — simply based on their Octagon debuts at UFC 137, in which Bart destroyed Tyson Griffin and Hioki barely got past George Roop. I’d also point out that Kid Yamamoto is a strong favorite only because he’s got home-field advantage; it’s certainly not based on his performance in the UFC.

The Reader-Submitted Parlay: “Shields, Kongo, Edgar pays out 108 on a 50 dollar bet. Simple, easy and a lock.” (Aaron B.)
We say: Shields and Kongo, sure. But again, I’m staying away from wagering on the main event. So how ’bout…

Official CagePotato Parlay: Kongo + Shields + Okami + Zhang. $10 gets you a $17.38 profit. I know, that barely covers bus fare, but you’ll want to play it safe if you’re chasing underdogs with the rest of your money.

Suggested wager for a $50 stake
- $20 on Jackson
- $10 on Lauzon
- $10 on Palaszewski
- $10 on the parlay

Cagepotato Comments

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aaronb- February 27, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Holy shit I sucked on this card. Apologize to anyone who followed my advice.
bigpimp- February 26, 2012 at 10:07 am
that was the first ufc in a long time i took a bet on.
i was considering the cp 50€ wager...man am i happy i didnt.
i bet alot of bs...but hunt saved the day for me.
but now i know one thing for sure...dont you ever even consider a cp 50 bucks wager! lol

i like those gaming addiction articles anyways.
aaronb- February 24, 2012 at 9:54 am
I agree with you Sopapo.

They gave the same treatment to Jorge Santiago. It's like they want to discredit everyone they can that made bones in other large promotions.

How the hell does Jason MacDonald still find fights in the UFC, yet guys like Santiago, Aky, and Mayhem are on the verge of chopping block territory?
Todd M- February 23, 2012 at 7:49 pm
I agree with RamboBatman and with a name like that how could I not? Pettis ain't no Guillard and he has a great gaurd, I don't see Lauzon having much advantage on the ground. Joe is dangerous early but if this goes past a round expect the superior conditioned Pettis to take over the fight, I'm taking Pettis via UD.
Sopapo- February 23, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Whats the deal with akiyama? what other fighter would get Belcher, Leben, Bisping, Belfort and Jake Shields in that order? Why isnt the ufc trying to biuld him up? The dude is a warrior, no doubt about it. I hope he puts on a nice performance and wins.
My boy Mark Hunt will knock KONGO out, trust me, he has more power in his uppercuts than Pat barry in his hooks-
Get Off Me- February 23, 2012 at 12:44 pm
@Rambobatman
Nice observations. Unfortunately, I highly doubt many of the props you mention would be offered by most books(that actually pay) at odds that would entice an individual to lay in down.
I think it is worth mentioning, but I find props troubling in two areas 1)No parlays on props 2)I would rather pick Shields at -300 than the fight going the distance at -400ish for example. I find that the book has changed props over time and it is hard to find value in single bets on fights like Okami/Boetsch etc offering 25 cents on the dollar for going the distance. Don't get me wrong there is money to be made, but I find you have to lay big bucks to make it in the props department. Lauzon/Pettis is the only prop I am going with right now -120 to complete 2 rds...I think Lauzon will not be able to sub Pettis(who has a ground game) and I agree it may go to decision win for Pettis as Lauzon slows in the last half of the fight, but again I can only lay a max of $100 on it to make 80 cents on my dollar...the prop for Pettis to win decision would be probably around +180 territory but it is unavailable as we speak.
Get Off Me- February 23, 2012 at 12:33 pm
@aaronb
It's like a running joke, glad to hear ur making bank though.
I chased on the card ur talking about. Since there were no dogs that hit, I started dropping singles on Pierce for $100, then Nelson for $150, when the Condit fight came, I said fuck it and put down $300 for him to win at +200, so I stopped the bleading, it would have been the first card I can remember where not one dog would have cashed. Good luck this weekend.
Duh Ogre- February 23, 2012 at 11:42 am
I would gladly take Hunt over Kongo. Kongo doesn't have much a chin and Hunt has ridiculous KO power.
aaronb- February 23, 2012 at 11:30 am
@ Get off me

I did blow that parlay to shit, I will totally own that one. However i did turn 80 bucks into 477 with Condit,Werdum,Riddle,Brown,Figueroa and Koscheck in various combinations. So you gotta take the good with the bad when wagering.

Just trying to help you guys make some money. Use my pics at your own risk.
bootystar- February 23, 2012 at 9:58 am
I didn't know Bendo was white
RamboBatman- February 23, 2012 at 9:55 am
Also, just don't bet on Lauzon. I know you see underdog and think that this is another Melvin Guillard moment just waiting to happen. It is not, Pettis has shown no inclination towards getting caught and finished in the first two rounds, whereas Guillard has basically made a career out of it. I'd be surprised if this fight hits the mat at all, and if it does, its not like Lauzon has stifling top control or that Pettis can't defend a sub. Look for a UD for Pettis, or maybe a stoppage in the third. I'd much rather put Pettis in a parlay than bet Lauzon as a dog.
RamboBatman- February 23, 2012 at 9:47 am
I'm always a little disappointed that you don't consider prop bets. For example, why put money on Kongo when you can get similar value betting that Kongo-Hunt doesn't go the distance?

If you're betting on Joe Lauzon, why not also bet that he wins inside the distance, its not like he's won a decision in his entire career (seriously, never).

If you're putting money on Okami, you might as well put it on him winning a decision. He's not usually a finisher and Boetsch isn't usually a guy to get finished.

Money on Palaszewski? If he's gonna win it is certainly going to be by stoppage.

Just a few examples of how you can get better odds by applying knowledge of fighters' styles and past performances to your picks. By betting straight up you are basically just leaving money on the table.
BONGTAR- February 23, 2012 at 9:47 am
What's with the gimp ref?
dim mak- February 23, 2012 at 8:46 am
let me get this straight, you're suggesting betting IN FAVOR of the guy who lost to Danny Downes and whose only win in the UFC was against Jason "Human Corpse" Reinhardt?
Fried Taco- February 23, 2012 at 8:06 am
Frankie Edgar looks like the Avatar.
Get Off Me- February 23, 2012 at 8:02 am
^Please give credit to Oddessa for that one. What's with reader submitted parlay coming from a guy who had Suanders+Yamamoto+Escovedo for UFC 140 + Bellator a little while back? That's a bunch of -400 losers piled together................ Kongo at -300 territory against someone like Hunt should not be included in any parlay.
@AaronB Put Mongolian Wolf in place of Kongo for a better shot.
Fukuda-Zhang-Gomi, get paid early.
J. Jones- February 23, 2012 at 7:45 am
Kongo got screwed out of the Oscar for his performance in Blood Diamond.
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