Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.
Frank Mir (+425) vs. Junior dos Santos (-550)
Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+325)
Roy Nelson (-225) vs. Dave Herman (+185)
Shane del Rosario (+135) vs. Stipe Miocic (-155)
Lavar Johnson (+105) vs. Stefan Struve (-125)
The Main Event: Good God, has the world completely forgotten that Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champion for Christ’s sake? When we first came across those odds, not only did we double take, we nearly went into full on SpongeBob Squarepants bubble-blowing mode. Look, we all know that JDS has been damn near untouchable since nuking Fabricio Werdum in his octagon debut. We also know that Frank Mir’s chin leaves something to be desired, but at those odds, you’d think this was the squash match of the century, and that’s already been booked in the featherweight division. Mir is a submission savant with a pretty stellar standup game, and considering the experience advantage he’ll be bringing with him come Saturday, it would be nothing short of foolish to place at least a small bet on him at those ridiculous odds. Keep Junior in your parlay, because he has the kind of cement-filled hands that could end Mir’s night really, really early, but a side bet on Mir is common sense here.
The Good Dogs: We hate to be rude, but judging by their last performances, we’d say that Dave Herman and Antonio Silva are f’ing screwed. Plain and simple. Velasquez is too fast and dynamic for “Bigfoot,” and regardless of how Nelson has looked as of late, he is simply on another level than Herman, so scratch those from your list of viable options. The Rosario/Miocic line is really too close to warrant a big bet, and is one of those guaranteed slugfests that is best enjoyed with a cold beer, some nachos, and zero investment in the fighters at hand. Given his insane power, as well as Struve’s tendency to stand for way too long with people he has no business standing with, Lavar “Big” Johnson looks like a decent bet at +105. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. That is no typo; we want to let that notion settle in. Once Struve gets this to the ground, it will be over quicker than you can even kick yourself for betting on “Big” in the first place.
Really, the best underdog pick on this card is Paul Sass. Terrible nickname aside, he’s managed to score a couple impressive victories since jumping into the deep waters of the UFC’s lightweight division, mainly, his most recent heel hook win over TUF 12 finalist Michael Johnson. Volkmann has proven to be a force at 155, scoring five straight since dropping from welterweight, but none of those victories have really convinced us that he can do anything other than out-grapple his opponent for three rounds. Sass is a finisher, and Volkmann is anything but. This fight comes down to where you stand on the BJJ vs. wrestling debate, but we expect to see Sass pull off a second or third round sub and claim his place amongst the upper echelon of the lightweight division.
The Easy Bet: Diego Brandao. Although he saw some ups and downs in his glass plaque-earning effort over Dennis Bermudez at the TUF 14 Finale, he should easily be able to handle Darren Elkins, whose 3-1 octagon record looks a bit different when you realize that one of those victories came as a result of Duane Ludwig’s flimsy ankles, and another came as a result of the incompetence of MMA judges in his fight with Michihiro Omigawa. We feel compelled to mention the Miller/Dolloway match considering what’s at stake, but you might as well just throw your paycheck in the fire before you bet on either of those gentlemen.
Official CagePotato Parlay: dos Santos + Velasquez + Nelson + Brandao
Suggested stake for a $50 parlay
$25 on the parlay
$10 on Mir
$10 on Sass
$5 on Kingsbury (because UFC jitters are a thing)