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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 148 Edition


(This time around, the UFC’s marketing department is looking to drive home the notion that sex sells once and for all.) 

By Dan “Get off Me” George

In the immortal words of Bruce Buffer, “It’s Time!”

On the eve of perhaps the most anticipated UFC rematch in history, I hope to bring my fellow CP readers some insight on how to save your kneecaps from the bookies and perhaps even make a buck or two by trying to follow my logic with regards to potential winners and losers for UFC 148.

For the sake of brevity, I’d like to focus on the dogs. The real money is made betting on the underdogs, and besides, there is nothing more exciting than watching a guy like Alan Belcher twist and turn his way out of certain demise en route to cashing out at three times the amount you originally placed on him (Ed note: Way to rub it in, Dan).

All of our betting odds for this week’s enabler come courtesy of BestFightOdds, so let’s get it on!

Undercard:

Shane Roller (-195) vs. John Alessio (+180)

I like Roller here, the price is fair and I do not see Alessio being able to do much but play defense in this fight. Look for Roller to pull out a decision while Alessio finds himself on the bottom or defending takedowns for the majority of the contest, not unlike his most recent decision loss to Mark Bocek at UFC 145. Simple.

Constantinos Philippou (-175) vs. Riki Fukuda (+165)

This line has moved in favor of Fukuda slightly over the past 24hrs, showing that the public likes Fukuda more and more as the small underdog. I like Philippou if for nothing more than his performance against Court McGee, a fighter similar to Fukuda who likes to move forward and press the action. Philippou has ever-improving takedown defense and better striking than Fukuda, specifically with his hands, and I like him to stop Fukuda’s takedowns and make him pay with his fists.

Melvin Guillard (-300) vs. Fabricio Camoes (+275)

Not with a ten foot pole, thank you very much. There is no way in hell would I touch Guillard at 30 cents on my dollar, and Camoes (or anyone, really) definitely has the ability to sub Melvin, especially given his propensity to throw as many flying knees as humanely possible against the grapplers he faces. If anything, I would look at the prop on the fight not going the distance, because I cannot see this fight being decided by the judges.

Gleison Tibau (-210) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (+190)

I like “The Eagle” for this one. He’s undefeated, relentless with his forward pressure and wrestling, and is not afraid to swing for the fences in the meantime. Tibau is in -200 territory and often relies on his ground game to get him to a decision win. I think the Khabib uses his Judo, Sambo, and size advantage to keep Tibau against the fence, maybe finishing Tibau later in the fight or winning on the score cards.

Mike Easton (-120) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+110)

My heart wants Menjivar, but Easton has this propensity to win closely contested fights on the cards. It is basically a pick’em, and gun to my head, I am leaning towards Easton. Ivan has always had trouble with wrestlers throughout his career, and may simply be outgunned when forced to deal with the ridiculous speed and power of Easton.

Main Card:

Chad Mendes (-600) vs. Cody Mckenzie (+500)

Is there a prop for a fight ending via signature guillotine submission? How this fight even came to fruition is beyond me, but I still don’t like -500 and up territory even in a parlay. How many people got burned by Boetsch or Varner recently by putting -500 and up fighters in parlays? I think Mendes wins, but again, the prop Mendes wins by TKO, Sub or DQ is the way to go to make something off this fight.

Patrick Cote (-215) vs. Cung Le (+195)

I have a hard time picking 40 year-olds to win in the UFC not named Randy Couture. Nothing against Cung, but he is a small middleweight and Cote has the skill set to not be bullied by Le like he was against Tom Lawlor and the chin to withstand most of Le’s offense. Cote also has underrated striking, but I believe this fight will be more of Cote closing the distance on Le and trying to get the fight on the ground, where he can safely earn a decision win to ensure he sticks around for at least another fight.

Dong Hyun Kim (-150) vs. Demian Maia (+140)

Kim is built like a 185er, so Maia should not feel too out of place dropping to 170 here. Kim also fights like many of Maia’s past opponents, which would lead me to believe that Kim will spend the majority of this fight inside Maia’s guard. This fight is similar to Sass/Volkmann, where I thought Volkmann would end up winning a 30-27 snoozer across the board. Little did I know that Sass had other plans. In the spirit of great submissions, I like Maia to catch Kim, who despite appearances, is not as strong as the Munoz’s, Weidman’s, Herman’s, and Sonnen’s that Maia has faced before. Maia may be strong enough to control Kim from the bottom and finish the “Stun Gun” as a small underdog.

Forrest Griffin (-300) vs. Tito Ortiz (+270)

Ortiz at +250 territory is quite compelling. Forrest is a new father and something tells me this fight means a lot to him, unlike what we saw in his rematch with Shogun Rua, in which Forrest looked like he was running late for his return flight home. This will be Ortiz’s first and last fight as a UFC Hall of Famer, and he’s been talking like he’s ready to fight to the death, so look for him to try and find Griffin’s off button in the early going. As the two settle in, however, I expect Forrest to find his range and pick Ortiz apart like he did in the their second meeting. The odds should be closer by fight time, though not something to put in a parlay for my liking.

Anderson Silva (-270) vs. Chael Sonnen (+248)

And here we are at last. I like Silva to win via keeping the fight standing and using the clinch effectively like he did against Yushin Okami when the distance is closed. I do not see Silva using many kicks at all, perhaps only when Chael is moving backwards (which Chael does not often do), and instead opting to box with Sonnen while using his footwork and hips (think matador vs bull) to keep Sonnen from getting this fight to the ground. We all know Sonnen’s gameplan by this point; his only chance here is if he can get this fight to the ground. Therefore, I will be looking at the prop Sonnen wins by decision, which should be near the +350 range, and is definitely hedge worthy, as the only way I see Sonnen winning is via 5rd decision.

Parlay 1:
Roller-Philippou-Nurmagomedov-Silva

Or if you’re feeling really ballsy…

Parlay 2:
Roller-Philippou-Nurmagomedov-Maia-Cote-Silva

Props:
Chael wins by decision
Mendes wins by (T)KO

Decide how much you would like to bet and may the winners be yours.

Also, feel free to give me shit when/if these fall apart.

Cagepotato Comments

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Get Off Me- July 8, 2012 at 1:28 pm
@fishtaco
Sorry to hear that, after Maia won you want to look at hedging if you can get you hands on a device with internet...I was in this position last night as well, same thing with the Miller/Diaz fight a little while back, where both my dogs hit and I had a chance to make money going single bets on underdogs...for your case, you could have decided on placing 70 on Le at +160 territory and would have came out on top on two both parlays.
fishtaco- July 8, 2012 at 12:16 pm
COTE COST ME
fishtaco- July 8, 2012 at 12:15 pm
i picked the BALLSY 1 but cotr cost me on a 10 parlay to win $190 BUT i hit on another parlay with easton, maia, nurmagmdov for $111 off $10 yea BABY
blaphtome- July 7, 2012 at 3:38 pm
I'm with you Dan. People (including the oddsmakers apparently) are sleeping on Nurmagomedov. Pretty sure tonight is his coming out. I just cant see a path to victory for Tibau, other than maybe catching the kid when he flies in with that crazy left he throws with his chin out. What Tibau's gonna out strike him?, yeah right he throws away half his speed and stamina to look like The Hulk. And I just can't see him pulling off a lay and pray decision against a Sambo world champion. Look out for when he shoots the double and baits Tibau into a sprawl, then immediately backs out and tags him a few times while he (Tibau) tries to get to his feet; he used it really nicely against Shalorus. It's a sweet fuckin technique I assume is trained in Sambo, as I've seen Fedor and a couple other Sambo guys pull off. Nice call I think, but I guess we'll see shortly.
tallkitchenbags- July 7, 2012 at 9:14 am
I've never been a fan of Silva, but I hope he defeats Sonnen decisively. Chael, while probably charged with promoting the fight, has been doing so in an unsportsmanlike fashion. It's especially galling that he does it while draped in the flag. Too bad this fight isn't being held in Brasil as planned. A little humility would be good for Sonnen.
Alan K- July 7, 2012 at 9:13 am
This is confusing. Just tell me how to blow my $50.
tallkitchenbags- July 7, 2012 at 9:16 am
Chael's mom can help with that, Alan.
tallkitchenbags- July 7, 2012 at 9:14 am
Chael's mom can help with that!
tallkitchenbags- July 7, 2012 at 9:01 am
Hey Admin, George,
Can we knock it off with the gay pr0n-style images? They aren't amusing and they do nothing to advance the acceptance of MMA. You can't promote homophobia and whine about the marginal status of your sport simultaneously. Just a suggestion. Feel free to mock me...
Get Off Me- July 8, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Photo was nothing to do with me, funny story too behind my significant other looking at my article while we were on the phone together....
Lesnarischamp- July 7, 2012 at 5:27 am
Tibau/Mendes/Le parlay for me.

and Tibau/Mendes/Le/Alessio/Menjivar/Izquierdo for fun/longshot parlay
ghostboner- July 6, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Did you just say that someone, anyone, at LW has a size advantage over Gleison Tibau? Shit, I think I just got trolled.
Get Off Me- July 8, 2012 at 1:14 pm
I actually was going for "and nullify Tibau's size advantage..." Like because he presses forward so hard, but I was all over the place trying to finish it quickly in time to post....so did you cash?
dranokills- July 6, 2012 at 6:13 pm
I'm going maia-forrest-sonnen.
fuck all the Seagal haters. suck it little punk bitches.
You may think hes full of shit, but hes not and all you little talkers should go tell him hes a delusional oldman and all that other shit you talk......oh and film it little bitches I want to watch him slap the stupid out of your pee sized brains.
J. Spaceman- July 6, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Official Spaceman Parlay:
Menjivar - Le - Dong

Easton's like a mini Houston Alexander in that he can't adjust on the fly. Menjivar should be able to figure him out and dominate him.

Le should be too dynamic.

Dong because Dong.

$10 gets you $90!

And, as always, if your lose, blame it on Danga, even if he isn't writing these anymore.
Fried Taco- July 6, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Thanks to being in the doghouse after spending too much on fireworks, I will not be betting or parlaying anything.
CagePotatoMMA