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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 153′ Edition

(Well, at least the poster is as half-assed as the main event.) 

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012′s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.

Luckily for us, the UFC has also succeeded in putting together a card that provides plenty of opportunities to prosper from a wagering perspective as well. This time around, I will attempt to follow the lead of Jared “Money Bags” Jones, who provided both the gift and the curse for UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva with his parlay picks, so follow me as I highlight a few names on the preliminary cards for Facebook and FX and breakdowns of all fights on the PPV portion of UFC 153. All betting odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Facebook + FX prelims

Reza Madadi stands out in the two FB fights; Sweden has been hot in the octagon lately and I think “Mad Dog” (not Anthony Macias) at around -200 has the right combination of size and all around ground advantage to deal with Marcello’s submissions game and win his second straight UFC fight.

Gleison Tibau hovering around -160 should be able to stifle fellow Brazilian Francisco Drinaldo and find a way back into the UFC win column after dropping a hard fought loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148. Tibau has fought solid competition throughout his lengthy UFC career and I do not think Francisco has the right tools to win this fight. An underdog that may be worth a look is Renee Forte at around +200 against Sergio Moraes, who dropped a unanimous decision last time out due in part to his in-ring demeanor, which did not seem to go over well with the judges.

Main Card

Demian Maia (-150) vs Rick Story (+130)

The line on Maia has steadily climbed towards the -160 area, and despite many picking him to lose against Kim in his WW debut, the BJJ whiz out grappled one of the best WW in the world. Story fights best when he can impose his will, but against Maia, clinching against the fence or taking the fight to the ground may not be the best strategy to win. Maia makes the parlay and remains undefeated at 170lbs.

Phil Davis (-380) vs Wagner Prado (+315)

The only thing that sticks out here (like a finger to the eye! *rimshot*) is that Wagner caught Davis once in their first fight. I am not rushing to the window to lay -350 and up on Phil Davis in Brazil as I need to see more from the American wrestling standout to pay that kind of price fighting in Wagner’s back yard.

Jon Fitch (+115) vs Erick Silva (-135)

This is one of those Old School vs. New School fights, a more or less one-dimensional fighter against a more well rounded fighter. Silva has a fantastic sprawl and represents the new breed of fighter who use defensive wrestling to compliment a strong stand up game. Jon Fitch will no doubt fight hard, but I think his old school style may fail him for a second time in a row for the first time in his career. I am going with Silva sitting at -140 for the parlay as I do not think Fitch will be able to win the stand up game or keep Silva on the ground long enough to take the fight on the cards.

Glover Teixeira (-400) vs Fabio Maldonado (+325)

I’m on the Glover bandwagon even with the steep price coming in around -400. Trained by everyone from Marco Ruas to John Hackleman and having such sparring partners as Chuck Liddell at his disposal, Glover may just know a thing or two about how to handle himself in the stand up exchange with Fabio. It will be interesting to see if Teixeira attempts to show off his grappling skills in this fight or times a perfect counter to a Maldonado body shot, but it seems like in either case, Glover is ending this fight and stamping his name towards the top of the 205 division. I like the prop that this fight does not go the distance and perhaps ends before the half way mark of the contest.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-320) vs Dave Herman (+260)

I want to lay it down on Big Nog and I think the fight plays well into his skill set, but coming off a serious injury against a fairly experienced younger, bigger fighter is a tough spot for the legend here. I do not see this fight going the distance and I would rather sit back and enjoy Antonio’s return as the betting favorite and see if the fight ends before the 15 minute mark.

Anderson Silva (-1100) vs Stephan Bonnar (+700)

Silva. Just lay the 3 grand you have lying around the house to make 200 bucks and thank me later.

Parlay 1
Madadi – Tibau – Maia

Parlay 2
Tibau – E.Silva – Maia – Teixeira

-Teixeira/Maldonado does not go the distance
-Bezerra/Sicilia does not go the distance
-Big Nog/Dave Herman does not go the distance

Enjoy the fights CP nation and may the winners be yours!

Cagepotato Comments

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Get Off Me- October 15, 2012 at 5:37 pm
That's the whole point I am driving at man. As I discussed with you with that Cote pick, both dogs cleared that parlay and hedging would have paid positive units. I not only need your help next time, I need as much help CP nation can give me. I look forward to your input for the MTL show(my hometown) and hopefully some more people step up and give some sharp advice...I'm thinkin' Thompson(fighting a kickboxer), Carmont, Hendricks(who already has a win at the bell centre) for an opening 3 teamer.
fishtaco- October 15, 2012 at 12:13 pm
@ get off me ill see you on the next ufc event ill help you pick.Im still mad at you for the cote pick at ufc 148. All bs aside your right my comment was ignorant and your picks are pretty good,i hit 1 out of 2 with you for a profit. Sorry Dan
Get Off Me- October 15, 2012 at 5:39 pm
What about the 3k I told you to put on Anderson Silva!
Get Off Me- October 14, 2012 at 11:53 am
Glad to hear u took it down.
Madadi got robbed.
I still get it right more than I get it wrong so far.
Record is now 3-2, if you would have been picking since UFC 148 you would be profitable still...Never get's it right is just ignorant from your part....can u read what is just below your comment??
fishtaco- October 14, 2012 at 8:12 am
i hit a 3 pick parlay tibau ,maia brandao. my secret is come on here get 2 picks then change 1 of his cause he never gets it right.
Get Off Me- October 11, 2012 at 3:37 pm
@Alan K
The record is 3-1 in terms of profitability per card.
My first GAE was UFC148 with a parlay including two underdogs(Maia+Khabib) that payed out at over 7-1.
There is NO other mma blog/website, Oddsbreaker or "Pro Gambler" out there that have been more profitable over the past 4 UFC PPV cards.
The reason I started this was large in part due to all the supposed experts telling people to go out and lay their hard earned money on fights for no concrete reasoning, just stupid stuff like "bet close to 200 of Kim to beat Maia" from a "respected" site that continually gave losing picks. Times are tough enough out there and if someone may be able to get a little extra scratch by reading this, than it is worth it to me.
Ideally the record improves and CP becomes the one must read blog for mma betting advice, only time will tell...
I remember in the first GAE I did you left a fun comment:

Alan K- July 7, 2012 at 9:13 am This is confusing. Just tell me how to blow my $50.

A fun answer for the upcoming on Bonnar.
imnotgay- October 11, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Anderson Silva fighting a semi retired can and calls out fighters 15 lbs lighter than him. Yeah hes the best alright
Alan K- October 11, 2012 at 2:31 pm
So what's this guy's record so far? Is he actually making people money or is he just making picks on how loudly he wants to laugh at us after the fights end?
El Famous Burrito- October 11, 2012 at 12:45 pm
This Silva vs. Bonnar fight feels a lot like the Satan vs. Jesus match on South Park.

I'm picking Bonnar, and shame on all of you.
Fried Taco- October 11, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Jerry Sandusky says he is innocent, and I believe him. I'm also putting all my savings on Bonnar to win in the first round.
Grandmas Nutmeg- October 11, 2012 at 11:47 am
Congrats on telling me I'm bad over the internet, it doesn't change the fact Jon Fitch has the tendency to make his fights look like the early works of Peter North, a lot of man on man "wrestling" that in reality no one wants to see.
ArmFarmer- October 11, 2012 at 11:38 am
@J.Jones, thanks for clarifying.
@Seth, break your arms, or cut off any of your 21 digits? That 21 was not a typo, proceed with caution...
SethF- October 11, 2012 at 11:16 am
Call me crazy, but I'm sticking a five dollar side bet on Wagner Prado. Besides, both of my legs are already broken, so what's my bookie going to do if Prado loses and I refuse to pay him?
J.Jones- October 11, 2012 at 10:52 am
Also, @Nutmeg, I don't know many ways there are to say this so I'll just come right out with it: You're a terrible father.
The12ozCurls- October 11, 2012 at 10:54 am
ArmFarmer- October 11, 2012 at 10:28 am
The first paragraph didn't make any sense to me. How is Pulver vs Lauzon relevant here.. because of the odds? Couldn't you have picked an example where the +1200 fighter didn't win in the first round without breaking a sweat? How were we denied Silva Sonnen 2 when we all watched it happen? I'm confused
Get Off Me- October 11, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Here's the original opening:
Have you ever messed up with someone before and tried to make it up to them? Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but Zuffa may just have the right recipe heading into Brazil this Saturday in what has been described as a fun main event for the fans. The UFC is offering the equivalent to a manicure pedicure treatment for the re location of the 148 card to Las Vegas and only the numbers will show if the rest of the world accepts this or not.
Grandmas Nutmeg- October 11, 2012 at 10:12 am
I'd rather let my 10yr old child take an unsupervised shower with Jerry Sandusky than watch a Jon Fitch fight. If I weren't a poor college student again, I'd gladly put up my life savings on Silva...not as a bet with Vegas but to pay him to end Fitch's career.
squirrelza- October 11, 2012 at 9:23 am
What's the best betting site for people outside the US that you can make deposits and payouts via PayPal?
Get Off Me- October 11, 2012 at 3:48 pm
You can try bet365