By Dan “Get Off Me” George
I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012′s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.
Luckily for us, the UFC has also succeeded in putting together a card that provides plenty of opportunities to prosper from a wagering perspective as well. This time around, I will attempt to follow the lead of Jared “Money Bags” Jones, who provided both the gift and the curse for UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva with his parlay picks, so follow me as I highlight a few names on the preliminary cards for Facebook and FX and breakdowns of all fights on the PPV portion of UFC 153. All betting odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Facebook + FX prelims
Reza Madadi stands out in the two FB fights; Sweden has been hot in the octagon lately and I think “Mad Dog” (not Anthony Macias) at around -200 has the right combination of size and all around ground advantage to deal with Marcello’s submissions game and win his second straight UFC fight.
Gleison Tibau hovering around -160 should be able to stifle fellow Brazilian Francisco Drinaldo and find a way back into the UFC win column after dropping a hard fought loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148. Tibau has fought solid competition throughout his lengthy UFC career and I do not think Francisco has the right tools to win this fight. An underdog that may be worth a look is Renee Forte at around +200 against Sergio Moraes, who dropped a unanimous decision last time out due in part to his in-ring demeanor, which did not seem to go over well with the judges.
The line on Maia has steadily climbed towards the -160 area, and despite many picking him to lose against Kim in his WW debut, the BJJ whiz out grappled one of the best WW in the world. Story fights best when he can impose his will, but against Maia, clinching against the fence or taking the fight to the ground may not be the best strategy to win. Maia makes the parlay and remains undefeated at 170lbs.
The only thing that sticks out here (like a finger to the eye! *rimshot*) is that Wagner caught Davis once in their first fight. I am not rushing to the window to lay -350 and up on Phil Davis in Brazil as I need to see more from the American wrestling standout to pay that kind of price fighting in Wagner’s back yard.
This is one of those Old School vs. New School fights, a more or less one-dimensional fighter against a more well rounded fighter. Silva has a fantastic sprawl and represents the new breed of fighter who use defensive wrestling to compliment a strong stand up game. Jon Fitch will no doubt fight hard, but I think his old school style may fail him for a second time in a row for the first time in his career. I am going with Silva sitting at -140 for the parlay as I do not think Fitch will be able to win the stand up game or keep Silva on the ground long enough to take the fight on the cards.
I’m on the Glover bandwagon even with the steep price coming in around -400. Trained by everyone from Marco Ruas to John Hackleman and having such sparring partners as Chuck Liddell at his disposal, Glover may just know a thing or two about how to handle himself in the stand up exchange with Fabio. It will be interesting to see if Teixeira attempts to show off his grappling skills in this fight or times a perfect counter to a Maldonado body shot, but it seems like in either case, Glover is ending this fight and stamping his name towards the top of the 205 division. I like the prop that this fight does not go the distance and perhaps ends before the half way mark of the contest.
I want to lay it down on Big Nog and I think the fight plays well into his skill set, but coming off a serious injury against a fairly experienced younger, bigger fighter is a tough spot for the legend here. I do not see this fight going the distance and I would rather sit back and enjoy Antonio’s return as the betting favorite and see if the fight ends before the 15 minute mark.
Silva. Just lay the 3 grand you have lying around the house to make 200 bucks and thank me later.
Madadi – Tibau – Maia
Tibau – E.Silva – Maia – Teixeira
-Teixeira/Maldonado does not go the distance
-Bezerra/Sicilia does not go the distance
-Big Nog/Dave Herman does not go the distance
Enjoy the fights CP nation and may the winners be yours!