fortune cookie wise man once told me that the frustrating thing about questions is that they do not always have answers. This Saturday night, Zuffa’s globetrotting MMA organization returns to the province of Quebec — the birthplace of the UFC in Canada — to answer the burning question: Who is the undisputed king of the 170 lbs division? GSP may be the PPV king of the UFC, but during his 20 month layoff due to reconstructive knee surgery, Carlos Condit has quietly and somewhat controversially asserted himself as the welterweight division’s top dog.
With a current record of 3-2 over the past 5 UFC PPV’s, the GAE’s back is against the wall and in need of another profitable evening if it is to be still considered as the champion of the odds breakers, bloggers and “professional gamblers” of the mixed martial arts world (which it totally is). So follow us after the jump as we highlight select bouts from the undercard and all contests on the main card in an attempt to save those who laid 1600 bucks on a Franklin to beat Le ticket from the man in the black trench coat. All odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com.
While some would credit Riddle’s impressive submission victory at UFC 149 to his use of marijuana (Ed note: Seriously? If anyone honestly believes this, just let us know so we can hit you on the head with a tack hammer because YOU ARE A RETARD), Matt seems to understand what he needs to do to win fights these days. Maguire recently lost a unanimous decision to a bigger, stronger grappler in John Hathaway at UFC on FUEL 5, someone he is essentially paired up with again this weekend. I believe we see Riddle approach this fight with the same mentality as his previous two fights in the UFC, fighting with the W in mind. The price is fair and parlay-worthy as I see Riddle being able to fend off all of Maguire’s submissions while maintaining control of “The One” on the mat.
If I had to pick an underdog on this card it would be Mark Bocek, who is essentially fighting out of his own backyard and hovering around the +130 range. Dos Anjos has shown that he has issues with strong grapplers throughout his UFC career and despite being a BJJ black belt, I believe that Bocek is the stronger grappler of the two. Look for the Tri Star fighter to close the distance, force Rafael against the cage and look for the takedown for the majority of this fight. It may not be pretty, but Bocek has the ability to win here.
All of a sudden, Cote doesn’t look so bad when you consider what happened to Rich Franklin this past weekend. I believe Cote has the chin to stick it out with Sakara and either finish Alessio or at the very least profit from the hometown 29-28 on the cards if the fight goes the distance. Even near 30 cents on the dollar Cote will find his way into one of the parlays for old time sake.
Hominick is simply too tough a puzzle to figure out at this point in his career. With changes both professionally and personally over the past two years of his life, “The Machine” needs to prove that he is not a shell of the former 145 contender who actually won a round against Jose Aldo at UFC 129. My money will go towards the prop that this fight does not go the distance; Garza only going to the cards once in his last six fights and Hominick losing two of his last three fights by decision sets the scene for a finish here if Hominick hopes to right the ship and avoid a fourth straight loss. I believe Hominick wins inside the distance possibly by submission.
Those who follow the GAE know that I have a strong handle on these two fighters. Hovering around -250, Philippou is a solid betting favorite here, essentially showing in the past he will not be smothered and definitely not be out struck by his opponent. Nick came very close to being finished against McGee in his last outing and I believe Costa’s ever improving game shines in this fight, making it virtually impossible for the judges to give the fight to Ring on the cards if it gets there. Costa makes the parlay.
Carmont seems to be pretty much better than Lawlor everywhere in this fight. The price of -250 on Carmont is just right and since moving shop to Tri Star, the Frenchman is undefeated as a mixed martial artist. Lawlor has the ability to play spoiler by trapping Carmont in a submission, but I believe Carmont will simply be too strong for “Filthy” and find a way to a decision victory.
The Hitman as a small underdog is the play to make against the heavy handed wrestler here. While many believe Kampmann may have trouble with Johny’s power — especially in his left hand (see Daley vs. Kampmann) — Hendricks may have a tough time finding the mark with a technical savant like Martin. I think Kampmann stays on the outside, uses his footwork and wins by decision in this fight. I like the prop that this fight goes the distance and will lay my money there.
Carlos Condit has never lost a five rounder in his career, and is probably the most well rounded fighter GSP has faced in his career. What this fight will come down to is whether or not GSP is still capable of landing his signature explosive takedown after surgery and a long layoff. In the 5th round of his fight with Nick Diaz, Condit showed that he can be taken down and once on the mat can be controlled by a fighter who has strong grappling skills. Due to the layoff, there are simply too many factors at play to pick GSP to win this fight in a parlay, although I do believe GSP will take Condit down and grind out a decision victory.
-Bocek/Dos Anjos Fight goes the distance
-Ring/Philippou Fight does not go the distance
-Kampmann/Hendricks Fight goes the distance
Bet what you feel comfortable with, more on the parlays, less on the props. Please share your thoughts and let us know who you like and why.
Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!