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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos’ Edition

By Dan “Get Off Me” George and Jared Jones

This weekend, the be all end all title fight between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is going down at UFC 166, so to ring in this special occasion, we’ve decided to switch things up for this edition of the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Not only will you be receiving the trusted, well-researched advice of Dan “Get Off Me” George, but additionally, CagePotato staff writer (and former GAE master-picker) Jared Jones will be jumping in to deliver the onslaught of gifs and contradictory advice that you all know and love.

Without further ado, let’s get to the fights in question…

Stay the Hell Away From:

Hector Lombard (-185) vs. Nate Marquardt (+155)

DG: This fight should be at pick’em odds — proposing either fighter as a clear favorite is simply reckless and ignorant of the fact that both fighters have been prone to shockingly inconsistent performances as of late. On any given night, these guys can end a fight in spectacular fashion. Does Nate “The Great” show up and fight the Lombard we saw against Okami and Boetsch, or does he meet the man they call Shango and fight like he did against Saffiedine and Ellenberger? I’ll tentatively pick Marquardt here.

JJ: Well, if it’s “reckless and ignorant” that you want, you’ve come to the right source. (*sets fully-loaded revolver on table and spins it*)

I’m surprised you neglected to mention that Lombard will be fighting at welterweight for the first time in his UFC career, in what is one of the most transparent “Dropping a weight class to save your career” bouts in MMA History. Also, Lombard’s weight cut is going so poorly that he’s already talking about moving back up to middleweight. He’s assuming, of course, that the UFC won’t sever their ties with someone as overpaid as him following this weekend, which is wishful thinking in my opinion. Lombard is basically Rousimar Palhares + striking and since Marquardt already beat Palhares, MMAMath predicts a dominant victory for Marquardt 9.9 times out of 10. Reckless? Yes. Ignorant? Yes.

Daniel Cormier (-600) vs. Roy Nelson (+450)

JJ: Roy Nelson is coming off one of the worst beatdowns of his career and the self-admitted “crappiest camp of his career.” The latter statement might just be “Big Country’s” way of lamenting his recently instilled Whopper-free diet, but in any case, you’d have to be a fool to place an outright bet on either of these guys.

DG: -165 that this fight goes to decision is the only action this fight merits. Cormier should be able to keep Roy guessing, and when Roy’s guessing he’s losing fights. When Roy loses fights, he loses by decision, as weapons are still not allowed inside the cage. Cormier is the heavy favorite but Roy has only lost by decision in the UFC so far and should keep that stat alive this weekend.

The Good Dogs:

T.J. Waldburger (+130) vs. Adlan Amagov (-160)

DG: Amagov is coming off a successful UFC debut as the favorite here, but T.J. Waldburger is a live dog as many believe Adlan will look to take this fight to the ground. Waldburger has managed to receive a SOTN bonus in 2011 and 2012….2013 is almost over and T.J. may be able to keep his streak alive by finding a way to catch Amagov from his guard. Waldburger will not go away easily in his own backyard and if the fight goes to decision, those who took the plus money option may be pleasantly surprised.

JJ: Who in their right mind thinks Adlan Amagov is going to take this fight to the ground? Against a grappling wizard like Waldburger?! With two SOTN bonuses in his past four fights?!!

Amagov by spinning shit, round 1. Moving on…

Gabriel Gonzaga (+175) vs Shawn Jordan (-210)

DG: Pop quiz time: Who is the only fighter (other than Vitor Belfort) to have all of their UFC wins come inside the distance? It’s none other than +300 to win inside the distance on Saturday night, Gabriel Gonzaga. The prospective profit almost doubles simply picking Gonzaga to win inside the distance vs. simply winning the fight, risk reward makes this a good dog pick by default.

JJ: Wait, so all of Gonzaga’s wins have come inside the distance, yet he’s facing 3-to-1 odds to beat Shawn Jordan inside the distance? Prop bets are for the weak: All my monies on Gonzaga by Grape Ape Rape inside the first. Joke, you are a bad.

Gilbert Melendez (-800) vs. Diego Sanchez (+550)

JJ: Dan is going to suggest that you place your money on Sanchez or some weird-ass prop bet that most of our bookies don’t even offer. Just watch. My reaction to this advice is as follows:

DG: This bout is far more competitive than the line suggests (Ed note: TOLD YOU SO). That line is Jones vs. Sonnen territory and while Melendez is the right favorite, he pays next to nothing as an outright pick (even to win by decision at -175 is a worthwhile pick but still not a plus money option). So where can you find the opportunity to make over 4-to-1 on your investment in this fight without predicting a winner or loser? Melendez vs. Sanchez for FOTN. Looking at the fights on paper, this fight stands out above the rest and should be selected at the end of the night by Dana for the honors.

Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior dos Santos (+170)

DG: Cain put on a clinic during his second bout with Dos Santos to take back the HW title, surprisingly out-striking the man who KO’d him only five months prior. The belief that the real Cain was not available for Zuffa’s FOX debut was supported with every jab and overhand right that the champ landed against JDS the second time around. Regardless of what the Brazilian will tell you, overtraining was most likely not the culprit for Dos Santos losing the rematch — it is far more likely that Velasquez is simply better in the long run. That said, JDS is a live dog because he is fighting an opponent he has beaten before and his price tag is paying out the highest return in his career. The prop that JDS wins via KO/TKO at +255 is the good dog pick, as it is rather clear Junior will not win any cardio races with Cain or steal any rounds along the way to a decision win. It’s all or nothing and it’s 2.5x your money if Cain gets caught again.

JJ: How quickly you forget UFC 90, Dan. Had any of us predicted that Dos Santos would treat Fabricio Werdum‘s face like a door on the TUF set at that event, we would have made 8 times our wager back. But you’re right about one thing, Dos Santos needs to catch Velasquez in the opening rounds if he hopes to hear a Brazilian mariachi version of “Gonna Fly Now” upon his return trip home. His takedown defense, however, is going to have to be impeccable for this to happen. I see this fight going down a lot like the second incarnation, with Velasquez wearing JDS down and potentially finishing him with GnP sometime in the championship rounds. But hey, there’s always the Klitschko’s, right Junior?

Dan’s Parlay Picks
Parlay 1: Dodson-Boetsch
Parlay 2: Jordan-K.J. Noons-Ferguson
Parlay 3: Waldburger-Fili-Kaufman

Jared’s Parlay Pick:
Parlay 1: $20 on Velasquez-Dodson-Boetsch returns $41.66

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