By Sam Stilson
Well if we learned anything from UFC Fight Night 61, it’s that MMA is perhaps the most unpredictable sport in the world. That, and Bigfoot Silva is slowing shrinking and will soon be nothing but an Easter Island statue made of glass.
The fact that 10 of 11 underdogs won last week has surely given some hope to the massive long shots featured in both the main and co-main events of this weekend’s UFC 184 card. But confidence is hardly enough when facing the best of the best in the women’s division (though this guy might disagree).
Let’s take a look at who the money-makers are for UFC 184.
The Sure Bets
Both men have not looked particularly dangerous as of late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the loser get cut. That being said, this fight can be summed up like so: Koscheck no longer has a chin + Ellenberger hits really hard = Easy money.
James Krause over Valmir Lazaro at -185
Krause is a tall, long fighter with decent kickboxing who has only really lost to top-shelf competition (lately anyway). Lazaro hits hard and certainly isn’t an easy opponent, but he just lost a fight to James Vick, who is cut from the same cloth as Krause. This bout will likely go down the same way.
The Live Dogs
Don’t get me wrong, “El Cucuy” has looked awesome lately; his striking is getting really crisp and he’s continuing to develop his natural power. But Tibau as an underdog is hard to turn down. Gleison only loses to top 10 fighters, so this bout will say a lot about Ferguson’s potential. A slow grinding win for Gleison is enough of a possibility to lay some coin down on this one.
Roman Salazar over Norifumi Yamamoto at +250
Salazar is probably going to take this one. Not because he’s some blue-chip prospect, but because Kid Yamamoto is a shot fighter. He’s 37, he hasn’t looked good in six years and is coming off a three-year layoff plus a slew of injuries. The guy lost to Vaughan Lee, so a Salazar upset isn’t just a good bet. At this point it’s expected.
This should be a barnburner, and with the odds this close a bet on either man is a good idea. Means is the more ruthless aggressive fighter whereas Lima takes a bit more of a calculated approach. Both have impressive Muay Thai games, but with Lima getting bombed out early by Eddie Gordon, the odds leaning in Means favour is accurate.
All odds provided by Bodog.