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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 84 Edition

Wanderlei Silva UFC 84′>
(“Gimme $2,000 on Jardine.”)

This has already been getting some play on the forums, but for those weak bastards who haven’t joined yet, betting odds for UFC 84′s three marquee match-ups have been released. Shall we take a look?

BJ Penn (favorite) vs. Sean Sherk (underdog)
Our buds at BetUS have Penn as a -230 favorite (you’d have to bet $230 to win $100 back) with Sherk riding the +180 underdog line (a $100 bet would score you $180). Setting aside BJ’s current hype as one of the most talented fighters in the world, he really does hold an advantage over Sherk in every aspect other than conditioning; his standup is better, his submissions are much better, and he’s not going to let Sherk lie on top of him the entire fight. But Sherk’s undeniable talent and accomplishments are preventing oddsmakers from calling this any wider than it already is. If you want to make a high-percentage wager on the Prodigy, do so at BetUS. If you’re going for the longshot, throw down a bill on Sherk at PinnacleSports, where they’re giving the Muscle Shark a juicy +232 line.

Lyoto Machida (favorite) vs. Tito Ortiz (underdog)
BetUS says -220 for Machida and +175 for Ortiz, a slightly closer line than Penn/Sherk, owing partly to the fact that Machida still doesn’t have a win against a top-10 light heavyweight under his belt — not that Ortiz is top 10 anymore, but he could easily be Machida’s toughest challenge to date. Will the Dragon still stomp Ortiz? Yeah, pretty much. Ortiz may be a better wrestler, but that’s about it. Lyoto seems to come from the Anderson Silva school of well-rounded badasses with very few holes in their game, and he’s probably a lot more focused than the stretched-in-all-directions Ortiz, who can hopefully schedule some workouts between reality show appearances, t-shirt company management, sex with Jenna Jameson, and bitching about Dana White whenever there’s a microphone in the room. Pinnacle has Machida at a far more attractive -185, while Ortiz nut-huggers can squeeze a tiny bit more value out of their misguided bet at BetCris, where he’s +180.

Wanderlei Silva (favorite) vs. Keith Jardine (underdog)
Here, folks, is the only smart underdog bet of the lot. BetUs has Wandy as a -185 favorite with Jardine the ‘dog at +145. Look, we know the Axe Murderer was a killer in PRIDE — but he needs to win a couple in the Octagon to convince me that he’s just as fearsome over here. Take away the use of soccer kicks and knees to the head on the ground, biased refs and judges, matchmaking that had him go up against opponents that were tailor-made for his style, (*cough*steroids*cough*), and the confidence that comes from never losing, and we’re not even talking about the same guy anymore. Silva won’t be doing any axe-murdering at UFC 84 — he’s going to be fighting not to lose, and will come out a much more cautious, tentative version of himself. Meanwhile, Jardine is surely working on another great game-plan with Greg Jackson, knowing that if he pulls off another big win his title shot will be waiting. Great risk, great reward, etc. Pinnacle and Sportsbook have Jardine at a solid +150. I don’t think there’s enough value in a bet on Wanderlei, but if you disagree, Pinnacle and Bodog have him at a more reasonable -160.


Cagepotato Comments

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Bundy- May 13, 2008 at 2:55 am
I disagree with CP on the Silva Jardine fight. Silva is not going to come out cautious, he's gonna come out like an animal. Jardine will have his hands full. It's hard to call a winner in this fight however. I could see it going either way. It will be an exciting fight though. Penn will beat Sherk, badly. Penn did not have great cardio at 170, but at 155 he's an animal. Machida over Ortiz.
VV- May 13, 2008 at 12:28 am
I love Silva, one of my favorites, but Jardine, even though I dont like him defiently can beat Wandy. I can see this being one of the fights where I'm like wtf? when Jardine upsets Wanderlei then I result to throwing my beer at my buddies tv in a drunken range. I then wake up in an alley naked 6hours later, with a dead hooker with my penis still dangling from her mouth. Uh oh I might of gone to far, in short howbout I just say Wanderlei might get upset and I can see it going either way. UFC 84 is gonna be awesome.
BIG CHRIS- May 12, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Keith Jardine is going to be walking like the crippled midget from Little People Big World after this fight...
TD- May 12, 2008 at 9:01 pm
If Wand loses do we start calling him "The Snorkler" instead of "The Axe Murderer"?
si- May 12, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I reckon that Wandy's good value at -160. I actually think that he's a terrible match-up for Keith, he pushes the pace (also why Alexander fucked him up), will deal with the leg kicks, and isn't underestimating him the way Chuck did.

I just don't think he's generally got what it takes against top competition. I put the Chuck match down to good-preparation-vs-very-little-preparation, and the Forrest win down to a punchers chance (Griffin was looking far better up until then and simply dropped his hands like a douche). So yeah, I'm plopping down to bodog next week and laying my dinner money on a Silva-UFC coming out party.
skidding- May 12, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Is UFC 84 great or what? I can't even make a prediction on who the victors are going to be, because I can see it going either way on all the fights.