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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 90


(Pink polo shirt or gray hooded sweatshirt: who should you trust with your money? Ordinarily there’s no good answer.)

Patrick Cote says all his friends are putting money on him this weekend “so they will be a lot richer after the fight.” Something tells me that while his friends may go along with this when Cote is around, once he leaves the room they’re whispering to one another, ‘We’re not really doing that, right?’ Friendship is one thing, but sentimental gambling is quite another in bleak economic times.

If any of Cote’s friends are reading this, we’d like to alert you to some better prospects that might be available on Saturday night. No disrespect to your buddy, but the line on him won’t make you as rich as you think and if you bet on someone else you can not only actually make some money but also keep up appearances when you place a bet before the fight. See? Everybody wins!

Odds today come courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, which has thankfully compiled all the internet’s juiciest lines.

Anderson Silva (-600) vs. Patrick Cote (+505)
Sean Sherk (-230) vs. Tyson Griffin (+212)
Josh Koscheck (-150) vs. Thiago Alves (+135)
Gray Maynard (-220) vs. Rich Clementi (+210)
Fabricio Werdum (-850) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+600)
Thales Leites (-445) vs. Drew McFedries (+365)
Spencer Fisher (-345) vs. Shannon Gugerty (+299)
Hermes Franca (-180) vs. Josh Burkman (-197) vs. Pete Sell (+200)
Dan Miller (-325) vs. Matt Horwich (+305)

Thoughts…

Underdog Comparison: The only bigger underdog than Patrick Cote is Junior Dos Santos, who has been plucked out of obscurity just to give Fabricio Werdum something to do. That should tell us something about Cote’s chances.

Best Bet: Aside from Silva and Werdum, obviously, one of the sturdier locks is Thales Leites. McFedries did not look good against Mike Massezio at Fight Night 15, and Massenzio doesn’t even have the submissions game that Leites does. Gray Maynard is also a good pick to grind out a boring decision over Rich Clementi, and at least there the odds are a little more profitable.

I Can’t Believe It’s Not Closer: Alves/Koscheck should really be even. Koscheck is a great athlete and great wrestler, but he’s not a finisher and his chances of doing just enough ground-and-pound to win (and that’s pretty much always his game plan) aren’t as good against the bulky Alves. He might still deserve a meager edge, but Alves is not a bad pick at all, especially considering the short-notice for Kos.

Absolutely Don’t Bet On: Sean Sherk. He’s a favorite. He’ll probably win. It will probably be boring to watch. You’ll feel bad about yourself afterwards, like that time you pretended to be into swing-dancing because you thought that girl would go home with you. Even when it works, it still isn’t worth it.

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Dmonicideals- October 23, 2008 at 12:23 am
Horwich is going to be your money-maker here. Alves is a safe bet too.
Bill C.- October 22, 2008 at 9:35 pm
I think that Alves is definitely the most solid underdog bet of the night.

Silva
Sherk
Alves
Maynard
Werdum
Leites
Fisher
Franca/Aurelio (This is actually a toss-up for me; I have no idea who to pick in this one.)
Burkman
Miller
Tpark- October 22, 2008 at 9:12 pm
ill will def. be betting just 100 on santos. being that big of an underdog. Oh man. It looks likes he hits hard too by that DW vid blog.
Meohfumado- October 22, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Pink polo or not, I know I wouldn't want to be the guy to make fun of him for it. He's a baaaaaaad maaaan!!!
Geriatric Peon- October 22, 2008 at 5:03 pm
lmao Nutmeg, true, Dana has a serious pedophile smile going on in that photo.
bpd- October 22, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I don't know, Fabricio v. Dos Santos might be closer than we think. I mean, It's bad enough having to fight one Santos, let alone two of them. What's the strategy for fighting conjoined twins anyway?
Ted Nutmeg- October 22, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Dana White will never look more gay than he does in that weigh-in photo.
Imbecile- October 22, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Also, CP, I think you are underestimating Maynard's power. Sure he has gone for the LNP in the past, but chances are he will try to keep it on the feet to avoid CLementi's only chance of winning, which is a submission. With Clementi hopelessly shooting in for takedowns on a guy that Frankie Edgar couldn't even move, Maynard will get a chance to chowcase the significant power he has in his hands.
Imbecile- October 22, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Isn't the guy Werdum is fighting the same guy who CroCop KO'ed in Pride while he was wearing that lucha libre mask? j/k

The best bets on the card are Gray Maynard and Josh Burkman, but neither are for great money.

No way Clementi gets that fight on the ground if Maynard doesn't want it to, and Pete Sell will give up takedowns all day long when he is winding up for a big strike. I like Sell, but Burkman will grind out that decision on the ground.

If you are one of those people intent on betting an underdog for the big pay-off, I think McFedries has a decent chance of keeping it on the feet and pounding Leites. Probably won't happen, but there is a better chance of it than the odds lead you to believe.

Too bad the sport isn't big enough for creative side-bets. If you could find a place willing to let you put money on the manner in which a fight ends (decision/KO/submission), instead of the actual fighter, then put your life savings on the Sherk/Griffin fight going to a decision.
MKXii- October 22, 2008 at 4:05 pm
None of these fights are worth betting on singles. Better hit up a 5 fight parlay or something.
HulkSmash- October 22, 2008 at 4:05 pm
I see Werdun,sherk, and maynard winning. Alves should handle Kos easily. The big one will be Silva/ Cote. I see Cote winning as Silva will be unable to handle his power. His all around game is better than Silva's and I predict a quick knockout. I also believe EliteXC will rise from the ashes to dominate UFC, Dana White will be named godfather to Tito's kids, Fedor's win over Sylvia was a fluke and Santa Clause is REAL.

LOL

Seriously though, no way cote makes it to rnd 3
J- October 22, 2008 at 3:40 pm
lack luster card , not worth buying , I'll watch the video's on here tomorrow
Geriatric Peon- October 22, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Where is a bookie, I want to place money on Alves............. but only if he can make weight lol.
Mixed Martial Adam- October 22, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Horwich, Aurelio and Guerty all look like decent bets to me. Fisher hasn't looked great lately and Horich can be a pretty good fighter when he brings it.
shizznitt- October 22, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I think I could make good money betting on Alves and Tyson Griffin.
KneeToTheFace- October 22, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I think McFedries would be a good bet. Sure, he's no Marquardt but it's possible he can sprawl well enough and pound Leites. Probably not, though. Other good bets would be Aurelio, Pete Sell, Alves and Clementi. Griffin could easily take it to Sean Sherk but I don't see it happening.
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