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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 92


(Strictly business, baby. Photo courtesy of Combat Lifestyle’s UFC 92 press conference album.)

Important: With the holidays now upon us, our posting will be lighter than usual as we pause to get reacquainted with our estranged families.  But have no fear, Potato Nation, as we have some Christmas Eve and Christmas Day treats planned, then we’re back to semi-normal on Friday.  Naturally, we’ll also be liveblogging UFC 92 on Saturday night, so don’t wander off.

And now, some betting odds for your gambling pleasure, courtesy of the Venetian sportsbook (via Yahoo!).

Rashad Evans +110 v. Forrest Griffin -140
Frank Mir +300 v. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -400
Quinton Jackson +110 v. Wanderlei Silva -140
Mike Massenzio +150 v. C.B. Dollaway -180
Mostapha Al Turk +250 v. Cheick Kongo -330
Dean Lister +220 v. Yushin Okami -300
Mike Wessel +300 v. Antoni Hardonk -400
Reese Andy +180 v. Matt Hamill -220
Brad Blackburn +130 v. Ryo Chonan -160
Dan Evensen +130 v. Pat Barry -160

Thoughts…

- The Big Three: Oddsmakers everywhere have about the same lines on the three major bouts at UFC 92, so the consensus seems to be that Frank Mir will get his ass kicked and everything else is a toss-up.  That sounds about right.  You don’t want to face Big Nog in a five-round fight, particularly if you’re Mir and your cardio ranges from mediocre to piss poor.  I’m a little surprised that Silva-Jackson is as close as it is, considering their history and Jackson’s questionable mental state, but it looks like people are buying the temporary delirium explanation.  For now…

- Underdog of the Night: I’m tempted to say Mostapha Al Turk, who could easily turn out to be a great heavyweight prospect for the UFC.  But this is his Octagon debut, which is never a good time to bet on a guy, and it’s against the dynamic (when he wants to be) Cheick Kongo.  That’s why I’m picking Dean Lister.  Okami’s wrestling skills and takedown defense could make it hard for Lister to get the fight where he wants it, but if Lister hasn’t planned for that he’s in the wrong business.  He may not submit Okami, but I like his chances to pull out a decision.

- Cage Potato Lock: Outside of the three kind of co-main events, Matt Hamill is my pick for the safest bet of the night.  Reese Andy is a good wrestler but can’t do a whole lot else.  Hamill’s an even better wrestler, plus he’s more well-rounded and will fight like a man possessed after his disappointing performance against Rich Franklin.  If he doesn’t he knows his trainer will badmouth him to the press again, and that’s no fun. 

Cagepotato Comments

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Newb-picker- December 26, 2008 at 5:03 pm
how are these picks?

Rashad Evans +110 v. Forrest Griffin -140 $300 on Rashad
Mostapha Al Turk +250 v. Cheick Kongo -330 $100 on Mostapha
Dean Lister +220 v. Yushin Okami -300 $100 on Lister
Reese Andy +180 v. Matt Hamill -220 $500 on Hamill
germany- December 26, 2008 at 5:00 am
thx for the answer !
these are really some bad betting odds :D
ozone- December 25, 2008 at 9:55 pm
5dimes does
The Interbox!- December 25, 2008 at 10:53 am
MIR!!11!!!one1!!
Ozone- December 25, 2008 at 2:26 am
can any of u parlay fantatics let me know of anyone who still does it for mma?
Forest will finish- December 24, 2008 at 9:27 pm
This fight via sub in the 3rd. Wandy over page and Mir over Nog.
Sideshow- December 24, 2008 at 6:03 pm
-400 means bet 400 to get 100

-130 means bet 130 to get 100

+220 means bet 100 to get 220

etc.

White Power- December 24, 2008 at 2:00 pm
If Griffin wins someone will throw the race card, but if Evans wins it will just be another day at the office.
Anonymous- December 24, 2008 at 12:51 pm
imbecile you make a great point. Wanderlei is my favorite fighter of all time. But when you look at him now, and watch the videos that made me become such a big fan years ago, wanderlei looks much older. His face doesn't even look the same, and his punches seem much slower. The Liddell fight was an example of this, he did not look like the old wandy, he defiently still had the heart but his explosivness was not there. Even when he knocked chuck down he waited for him to get up? wtf is that. Jump on him!. Overall I am still very much cheering for Wandy, and really do hope that he is back to his old self, because much younger MMA fans have the right to see this beast in action. But who knows, Rampage is no slouch. A loss to forrest griffin via close decision isnt a big deal, especially after having that great performance vs dan henderson and that vicious KO of Liddell.
remember this- December 24, 2008 at 11:14 am
griffin def. evans via rear naked rd 4

silva def jackson via tko rd 2

big nog def pussypants via strikes/ref stoppage in rd 3
Kirky- December 24, 2008 at 9:44 am
Round 2 Big Nog via Armbar



BRING THE MOTHERFUCKING PAIN
Imbecile- December 24, 2008 at 9:14 am
So let me get this straight - Rampage's mental state is the biggest concern in this fight? I think Wand brings as many questions into this fight as Rampage.

Wand loses three fights in a row, and looks like a shell of his former self. Then he throws two punches that connect on Jardine's suspect chin in the first 20 seconds of a fight, and suddenly that 20 seconds makes up for the previous 2 years of lackluster performances. Sure Wand looked brutal in that short, short, fight, but he has also looked like his skills are waning, where Rampage has improved. I definitely think Rampage's mental problems may be an issue, but an equal issue is the fact that Wanderlei is no longer the fearsome fighter he once was.
Levi- December 24, 2008 at 8:10 am
Mir has never been into the championship rounds and after Saturday, that statistic will still be true.

Silva-Nog-Evans
Douchebaggery- December 24, 2008 at 6:35 am
Griffin is going to tower over rashad at the weigh in
lilpo0ts- December 24, 2008 at 6:30 am
Rashad Evans tko's Forrest Griffin 2nd round
Frank Mir loses to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira armbar 3rd
Quinton Jackson KTFO by right hook from Wanderlei Silva
Mike Massenzio tko's C.B. Dollaway
Mostapha Al Turk kimuras Cheick Kongo 1st
Dean Lister KTFO by Yushin Okami 1st
Mike Wessel tko'd by Antoni Hardonk
Reese Andy tko'd by Matt Hamill 3rd
Brad Blackburn armbar'd by Ryo Chonan 2nd


kolms.- December 24, 2008 at 3:59 am
for whoever said rashad should look at the loss to jardine, griffin is a different style of fighter now, more strategical and calculated. safer.

but it's still pretty close. i'm going for forrest because he's a maniac in many senses of the word, he's a smarter fighter now and he can take a solid punch.
P- December 24, 2008 at 1:29 am
I'll bet you 100k Mike Mizziagoti does not step in and miscalll any fight... for one his name is not MIKE droolcup.
The fish of disappointment - December 24, 2008 at 12:49 am
i think Mir is being horribly underestimated here. i mean, i think Nog will win, but it'll be closer then people the predictions.

the overconfidence in Wady is getting to me as well. i say Page has a real chance at this. if Wady fights like he has so far in the UFC and Page still has all his marbles i think he will take this fight.

i think Griff takes this fight, he is always underestimated, and he always wins. it'll be close, and evans has the power to end fights, but Griff can take more then most. Griff will get the decision.

as for Okami. all i can hope is that the UFC gives him a title shot soon, or at least a fight on the main card. he's being treated like a mid-pack guy and he deserves a shot at Silva more then most other contenders
Feliz Knobby Job- December 24, 2008 at 12:40 am
I'm putting some serious cash on Mir to submit Nog, with that kind of odds I wouldn't mind throwing some of my x-mas bonus on it along with the griffin-evans and rampage-wandy fights.
Ray K- December 24, 2008 at 12:09 am
blackburn has a win on this one.
Anonymous- December 23, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Its how much you win if you are to bet 100$.

so if the odds are +130 you would win $130 on a $100 bet. if the odds are -130 you would need to bet $130 to win $100.


So in the case of big nog, he is favoured by a very large margin and thus the odds are -400, meaning to win any big money you would have to risk alot more.
Anonymous- December 23, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Seriously, you people are so confident in Wandy. I'm a Wandy fan but I think Jackson wins by tko in the 2nd.
Clue-by-Four- December 23, 2008 at 10:22 pm
What's the line on Launchpad McTap losing by yet another armbar?
Sodak- December 23, 2008 at 9:49 pm
i hear mostafas a Abu dabi champ? but just the european champ, anyone know what signigance that has, can any bum be the european champ? might throw some cash his way if hes got some sub skills.
You're Fucking Nuts- December 23, 2008 at 9:27 pm
Lister over Okami???? I'd rather bet fucking Evensen.
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