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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 94


(‘Hope you got that camera turned on, ’cause I ain’t doing this shit again.’)

Looks like “running the rock” wasn’t enough to impress oddsmakers, as B.J. Penn is still the betting underdog just two days before UFC 94.  Maybe if we got the impression that the rock exercise was something he did every morning, rather than just once to show off for the cameras, things would be different.  

Today’s betting lines come from BestFightOdds.com, and they’re tighter than usual all across the board, with one exception.

Georges St. Pierre (-175) vs. BJ Penn (+166)
Lyoto Machida (-245) vs. Thiago Silva (+232)
Stephan Bonnar (-165) vs. Jon Jones (+156)
Karo Parisyan (-271) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+260)
Nate Diaz (-117) vs. Clay Guida (+107)
Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Akihiro Gono (+450)
Chris Wilson (-295) vs. John Howard (+285)
Manvel Gamburyan (+116) vs. Thiago Tavares (-120)
Jake O’Brien (-240) vs. Christian Wellisch (+236)
Matt Arroyo (-170) vs. Dan Cramer (+161)

Thoughts…

- Call me crazy, but I think GSP is a good bet at +175.  There are no sure things when B.J. Penn is involved, but unless St. Pierre does something dumb and gets himself submitted I don’t see him losing this.  Anything less than 2-1 odds on him is worth the action.  Although if a Hawaiian spots you making that bet at the sportsbook he is guaran-damn-teed to call you a Haole and tell you that you’re wasting your money.  Take my word for it.

- I like Jon Fitch to beat Akihiro Gono, too, but -500 still seems a little steep.  Oddsmakers would have you believe he’s the surest thing on this card.  I wouldn’t go that far, at least not while Lyoto Machida is still on there, but I would still advise you to resist the tempation to put a little cash down on Gono.  Not unless you can imagine a scenario in which he wins this fight, and if you can I’d love to hear it.

- So who’s a good bet this time around?  I like the slight underdog pick of Guida over Diaz, but if you’re really feeling adventurous you might take a chance on Dong Hyun Kim over Karo Parisyan.  True, that’s more a bet against Parisyan and his mental and physical woes than it is for Kim, but we just don’t know what “The Heat” is capable of these days.  

- Absolutely don’t bet against: Chris Wilson.  John Howard is a UFC newbie who fancies himself a good striker, but if he stands in front of Wilson he’s liable to get picked apart in a rough welcome to the Octagon.  Believe that, playa.

Cagepotato Comments

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Bootylam!- January 30, 2009 at 2:30 pm
@ Potatohead: That's exactly what I said! Only I would have been more impressed if they had actually shown Penn actually getting out of the water actually tired like he was actually training.
Danny F- January 30, 2009 at 10:00 am
Oh he won't. The Heat, will be nooowhere to be found.
KChuck- January 30, 2009 at 9:39 am
Is there a line to bet on whether Karo will even show up?
Anonymous- January 30, 2009 at 9:00 am
As I see it, the only advantage GSP has is his takedowns. He will get beat on the feet because BJ is faster and a better boxer.

GSP will successfully take BJ down for the first three rounds which will take away his conditioning advantage (as he will be using energy and BJ will be chillin').

But come the fourth and fifth, when GSP has blood in his eyes and a broken nose, he will tire out and get trapped either in BJ's rubber guard or by RNC. Bet on it.
afspoker- January 30, 2009 at 8:18 am
Gono is going to get stomped the 1st round. Then during the second he is going to get a KO with a flying knee + elbow combo.

So I am placing my money on him.
breakbeat- January 30, 2009 at 7:51 am
Can i ask why Jon Jones is all of a sudden in the runnign against Stephan Bonnar? The dude fought one fight against the third sacrificial lamb for Houston Alexander's comeback, throwing god awful attempts at Anderson Silva esque striking techniques and now he can hang with Bonnar?




Ne
Kimbo is Crap- January 30, 2009 at 7:34 am
whos the idiot that was hating on bj saying gsp was better all the way around is dumb. tell me gsp has better bjj and judo than bj penn and ill call you a liar.

ill take clay over the diaz and i hope that karo wins. hope he can still bring that heat.

im surprised everyone is calling machida v silva such a sure thing for machida. i t hink lyoto will take it, but silva could def catch him with a crazy strike with that aggresive style of his.
Payday- January 30, 2009 at 3:34 am
This brings up bad memories of the Mir/Nogueira betting advice I received from CP...
Anonymous- January 30, 2009 at 2:30 am
I'm putting $2000 on Ken Shamrock to beat TIm Sylvia. Wait, wrong fight?
Backside Ass Grind- January 29, 2009 at 10:05 pm
GSP is good and intelligent. But damn if he loses confidence in the middle of the fights he's done.

Also, I'm placing $5,000,000,000 on Fitch to destroy GONO.
PotatoHead- January 29, 2009 at 9:05 pm
St. Pierre is the master-of-the-rematch. His super-human physical skills draw attention away from his biggest advantage... he's possibly the most intelligent fighter in the ass-kicking business!

He learns so much from a tough first fight, even a loss... that he's invariably able to make the second go-round look like child's play. I'm thinking Hughes and Serra, for example.

Still, that underwater shit has me scratching my head now, and I'm putting a couple of Benjamins on BJ... in honor of Goldstein and Fowlkes!
walrus- January 29, 2009 at 8:36 pm
"$50 on Clay is a good bet"

Guida's a good bet. I'm expectin a wolverine rampage.

I'm hopin' you guys at CP get those fights posted soon after the event. I don't got the money to buy this one.
brandon- January 29, 2009 at 8:23 pm
How is Jon Jones going to smoke Bonnar. Bonnar can win on the feet if he wants, or if he isn't getting the best of those exchanges he can take him down and sub him. Ring rust/knee injury on Bonnar is his only liability.
Jay Smith- January 29, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Machida will not win this fight...........................I promise!
Eric in Ayden- January 29, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Jon Jones is gonna smoke Bonnar. I may would put a small bet on Gono just due his experience and the huge line. Machida and Jones are my most solid picks.
Smelly Bob- January 29, 2009 at 7:44 pm
I just put down my entire severance pay on Machida. I am one puch away from becoming a bum for the rest of my life. I'm going down with the ship. Tell my kids I love them very much.






brandon- January 29, 2009 at 7:38 pm
Bonnar is the pick for tonight. He has better odds than GSP. He's a goddamn lock in this fight and will win pretty easily.

I'm puttin a few hundy down on my man Bonnar.

Also, I love Kim to death but I am not gonna bet him. He looked shitty in his last bout against Matt Brown.

I got GSP, Guida, and Bonnar as my bets. Hell I'm thinkin of puttin a little down on Gamburyan. Although I hate him I think hes taking this one
ssu- January 29, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Silva has only fought shitty people with his sloppy stand-up. Machida will wreck him with pure skill and tarnish-free face
UFCinCALGARY- January 29, 2009 at 6:39 pm
$50 on Clay is a good bet
Goog- January 29, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Zzzzzz.
your gay uncle- January 29, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Incidentally, I am hoping to see Silva rip Machida's kara-tay stylings apart. True, the guy's talented, and would surely kick my ass in about six seconds, but it's such a snooze-fest to see him at work. Silva, on the other hand, is a rampaging beast that beats the piss out of his opponents as if he's settling a blood-debt reaching back to the T'sang Dynasty. Now, that's entertainment!
Oh, and Anonymous is still a turd brain.
your gay uncle- January 29, 2009 at 5:58 pm
Anonymous says, "You lack appreciation for superior skill, timing, balance and game-plan.

Well, my little nut-hugger, I'll say this: The only place Penn has GSP beat for sure is in the witticism dept. I give him full props for the lay on your bed for 20 minutes and go fuck yourself comment, that was hilarious.
As for superior skill, timing, balance and game plan, go watch the films for when GSP dismantled Hughes during their second meeting, or the way he not only dominated but shut down Koscheck at every turn, or the way he kicked Fitch's ass all over the ring, keeping in mind that Fitch was supposed the biggest challenge of his career.
Put all that in your pipe and smoke it. And when you're through with that, you can put BJ's gym bag down and choke on his dick for a while. You'll both feel better.
Anonymous- January 29, 2009 at 5:38 pm
You should probably be watching Bum Fights or a Tough Man contest... perhaps a cockfight. You lack appreciation for superior skill, timing, balance and game-plan.
drew- January 29, 2009 at 5:25 pm
i am betting the farm on BJ to win via stikes and parlaying it into him kissing GSP after the fight
tpark- January 29, 2009 at 4:31 pm
My 2bills are going to jon jones vs Bonnar and Fitch VS Gono.
Kim even with his wins, none of his fights were "performing". I think the heat can take him. GSP GSP GSP!
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