(‘Hope you got that camera turned on, ’cause I ain’t doing this shit again.’)
Looks like “running the rock” wasn’t enough to impress oddsmakers, as B.J. Penn is still the betting underdog just two days before UFC 94. Maybe if we got the impression that the rock exercise was something he did every morning, rather than just once to show off for the cameras, things would be different.
Today’s betting lines come from BestFightOdds.com, and they’re tighter than usual all across the board, with one exception.
Georges St. Pierre (-175) vs. BJ Penn (+166)
Lyoto Machida (-245) vs. Thiago Silva (+232)
Stephan Bonnar (-165) vs. Jon Jones (+156)
Karo Parisyan (-271) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (+260)
Nate Diaz (-117) vs. Clay Guida (+107)
Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Akihiro Gono (+450)
Chris Wilson (-295) vs. John Howard (+285)
Manvel Gamburyan (+116) vs. Thiago Tavares (-120)
Jake O’Brien (-240) vs. Christian Wellisch (+236)
Matt Arroyo (-170) vs. Dan Cramer (+161)
- Call me crazy, but I think GSP is a good bet at +175. There are no sure things when B.J. Penn is involved, but unless St. Pierre does something dumb and gets himself submitted I don’t see him losing this. Anything less than 2-1 odds on him is worth the action. Although if a Hawaiian spots you making that bet at the sportsbook he is guaran-damn-teed to call you a Haole and tell you that you’re wasting your money. Take my word for it.
- I like Jon Fitch to beat Akihiro Gono, too, but -500 still seems a little steep. Oddsmakers would have you believe he’s the surest thing on this card. I wouldn’t go that far, at least not while Lyoto Machida is still on there, but I would still advise you to resist the tempation to put a little cash down on Gono. Not unless you can imagine a scenario in which he wins this fight, and if you can I’d love to hear it.
- So who’s a good bet this time around? I like the slight underdog pick of Guida over Diaz, but if you’re really feeling adventurous you might take a chance on Dong Hyun Kim over Karo Parisyan. True, that’s more a bet against Parisyan and his mental and physical woes than it is for Kim, but we just don’t know what “The Heat” is capable of these days.
- Absolutely don’t bet against: Chris Wilson. John Howard is a UFC newbie who fancies himself a good striker, but if he stands in front of Wilson he’s liable to get picked apart in a rough welcome to the Octagon. Believe that, playa.