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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 97


(After he was so excited about finally meeting Kevin Federline, Chuck was extremely disappointed to find out that K-Fed had a better picture pose than he did.)

The Gambling Addiction Enabler had a somewhat rough go at Strikeforce thanks to Frank Shamrock deciding to go ahead and get old out of nowhere (okay fine, in retrospect, probably should have seen that one coming), but he managed to cut his losses by picking Scott Smith to pull off the minor upset against Benji Radach.  With underdogs proving profitable, maybe your favorite compulsive gambler will have to take a long look at some of the major ones on the UFC 97 lineup.  Maybe put down a big bet on a certain middleweight challenger who nobody thinks has a chance in hell…

Odds today come from BestFightOdds.com:

Anderson Silva (-500) vs. Thales Leites (+456)
"Shogun" Rua (+170) vs. Chuck Liddell (-172)
Brian Stann (+151) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-150)
Nate Quarry (+110) vs. Jason MacDonald (-110)
David Loiseau (-112) vs. Ed Herman (+110)
David Bielkheden (+240) vs. Mark Bocek (-255)
Antoni Hardonk (+275) vs. Cheick Kongo (-261)
Steve Cantwell (+265) vs. Luis Cane (-275)
Eliot Marshall (+120) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (-150)
Xavier Fouka-Pokam (+300) vs. Denis Kang (-300)
T.J. Grant (+177) vs. Ryo Chonan (-187)
Sam Stout (-125) vs. Matt Wiman (+120)

Best bets…


- Thales Leites at +456, eh?  Sorry, still not a good bet.  There’s simply no good reason to believe he’ll win this.  The fact that Silva messed around with Cote and caught a bunch of heat for it only hurts Leites’ chances of making it out of the first round.  He’s going to catch a beatdown and the oddsmakers know it.  I’m not touching this one.

- Liddell deserves to be the favorite over Rua for the simple reason that a little old and a little slow still beats gassed and sloppy.  Rua looked awful against an awful-looking Mark Coleman, and that was just three months ago.  Liddell did get KO’d, but at least it came against Rashad Evans and he looked good up until his head got knocked off.  I’ll take Liddell, but with these odds it’s better saved for the parlay.

- There aren’t many really attractive underdog picks on this card, so it’s best to look at the slight underdogs and slight favorites.  Ed Herman and Matt Wiman seem like the best options in the former class.  Trouble is, Herman’s got a much tougher opponent.  Loiseau can give lots of people problems, whereas Sam Stout has looked very mediocre recently.  He seems to have made it on here mostly for his Canadianness.  My pick: $20 on Wiman.

- Of the slight favorites, Jason MacDonald looks like the best.  He gave Demain Maia his toughest test in the UFC, and he should prove too much for Quarry, who’s got toughness on his side but not a whole lot else.  My pick: $20 on MacDonald.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Cheick Kongo.  Hardonk has been on a little streak lately, but Kongo is trouble for anyone without a whole lot of power and an excellent ground game.  If Hardonk makes it past the first I’ll be surprised.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Silva + Liddell + Soszynski + Kongo + Magalhaes.  The five-pronged attack, FTW.  Money-makin, money, money-makin.

Cagepotato Comments

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Koeikan- April 18, 2009 at 11:54 pm
Looks like Quarry did KTFO MacDonald...told ya.

Kongo didn't finish Hardonk in the first round either...told ya. Ok, I said it was going to a boring decision and Kongo did finish him...but it was still boring.

But damn, I didn't see that Shogun KO coming. I thought Chuck was actually going to do that to Shogun in R1 or R2.
2009- April 16, 2009 at 4:51 pm
hey tysonmcneely that quote is almost as old and not relative to mma as your name...care to request an ace of base song while you're at it?
tysonmcneely- April 16, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Concerning Loiseau/Herman.
"Do you ever play roulette?"
"on occasion"
"Let me give you a word of advice. Always bet on black"
Anonymous- April 16, 2009 at 10:22 am
cantwell will not win i honestly think he has the least chance of winning out of anybody on that card
Teflon Don- April 16, 2009 at 9:02 am
Stann and Cantwell are underated and will win.
CAPS LOCK HAL'S GENITAL WART- April 16, 2009 at 2:26 am
stop choking me hal
bold- April 16, 2009 at 1:13 am
i dunno dude tg grant is a fuckin monster
Maud- April 15, 2009 at 8:15 pm
wow federline's right hand looks like its from a 90 yr old woman.
Anonymous- April 15, 2009 at 6:16 pm
cantwell is not that good ,cane is on another level than him technically. Also i think that antoni hardonk is better than kongo in most areas ,the only thing kongo has on him is conditioning and sumbission defence in my opinion. I think that one is a really tough one to call but i like hardonk if it stays standing ,which im pretty sure it might . Remember heath herring was beating kongo in the stand up and although herring has power hes not a very good striker. Why do the writers at cp sound so uneducated in the sport of mma. And though leites might not win its gonna be competetive anybody whose seen leites fight should know that .
CJ- April 15, 2009 at 5:57 pm
foupa, not fouka
The Greg- April 15, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Not to bitch, but I'm gonna anyway. Cantwell on undercard? Stann on overcard? Didn't Cantwell just rip someone's arm off?
Brandon- April 15, 2009 at 4:16 pm
I'm going with Loiseau. Fuck a Ed Herman.
RaginAsian- April 15, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Only thing I disagree with is MacDonald over Quarry. MacDonald gave Maia problems because he had the BJJ to neutralize him for a while and Maia's stand-up wasn't enough to put him away. MacDonald has a tendency to fold against hard hitters like Quarry and doesn't have the wrestling (or Maia guard-pulling prowess) to get the fight to the ground.

Quarry by TKO, round 2. And get this guy the hell out of the stagnant Team Quest.
SethP- April 15, 2009 at 3:48 pm
lol. Cane might actually kill Cantwell
just a fight fan- April 15, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Good to see the Crow back in the UFC. Remember when he and GSP were those two bad-assed Canadian motherfuckers? What happened there?
Anonymous- April 15, 2009 at 2:35 pm
How about haircuts and skull tats? at least a shirt can be taken off easily and replaced
Anonymous- April 15, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Chuck has such shitty shirts. I hope his kids won't take fashion advice from him.
Douchey McDoucherton- April 15, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Maybe you should let Goldstein do the betting, you know those....nevermind, I bet he's good with money.
Oops!- April 15, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Are you sure you want to put stock in a guy who has no intention to take the fight to the ground instead want's to fight standing up and show a poor conditioning in his last fight????
And he has a lossing record to boot aganist A guy who has a well rounded game.

Maybe I'm a little troubled but am I right?
Ted DiBiase- April 15, 2009 at 1:12 pm
I agree with your picks and im the million dollar man...
CAPS LOCK HAL is a F*IN homo- April 15, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Haha dune flyer...looks like you will lose a good chunk of money. thats just my opinion. We shall see come gameday.
Ozone- April 15, 2009 at 12:11 pm
I dont know, I think the people who think Cantwell is going to ruff up Cane are smoking some Nick Diaz shit...Banha might not give him the Sokoudjou bitch slap (although he needs it), but I think he'll go right through him...also can't wait to see the Crow back! love watching his explosiveness! gimme a parlay of Kang, Cane, and Crow
k- April 15, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Krzysztof is going to fuck you over.
duneflyer- April 15, 2009 at 10:59 am
im gonna do it... Leites
Rua
Stann
Quarry
Loiseau
Bielkheden-just cause
Kongo
Cantwell
Magalhaes
Professor X
Chonan
Wiman

How much money am I gonna loose?

LOL
Koeikan- April 15, 2009 at 10:57 am
Hmm, very so-so picks in my opinion. Silva/Liddell...okay...

I'm not convinced MacDonald will be able to handle Quarry. MacDonald is much better on the ground, so it stands to reason he lasted against Maia longer.

Quarry should have the wrestling and striking advantage on MacDonald... I think he could definitely take that one.

Cheick Kongo is too inconsistent to know what to expect...but he's not that good and I see his fight with Hardonk going to a fairly boring decision...which he'll probably win, but I would be very surprised if he finished him in the first.
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