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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 99


(It’s going to take more than a Sandstorm to intimidate Rich "The Cyborg Soldier" Franklin. Just like it takes more than two weeks of acting classes to hang with Tiffani-Amber Thiessen.)

Just a few days from now the UFC will invade Germany with the force of the Allies, the Soviet Red Army, and David Haselhoff all rolled into one.  If you’re anything like us, you’re sitting there right now wondering how you can make a quick, labor-free buck off the whole thing.  Take a good hard look at the latest betting lines, from BestFightOdds.com, and let’s see what we can come up with:

Wanderlei Silva (+126) vs. Rich Franklin (-139)
Cain Velasquez (-181) vs. Cheick Kongo (+165)
Mike Swick (-200) vs. Ben Saunders (+190)
Marcus Davis (-200) vs. Dan Hardy (+180)
Spencer Fisher (-188) vs. Caol Uno (+175)
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-390) vs. Mostapha Al Turk (+350)
Dennis Siver (-170) vs. Dale Hartt (+150)
Terry Etim (-350) vs. Justin Buchholz (+300)
Paul Taylor (-350) vs. Peter Sobotta (+300)
Paul Kelly (-400) vs. Rolando Delgado (+325)
John Hathaway (-140) vs. Rick Story (+120)
Stefan Struve (-130) vs. Denis Stojnic (+110)

So where’s our money going?



- Franklin is the favorite against Silva because you just don’t know which Wandy you’re going to see these days, while “Ace” has been pretty consistent of late, even if it’s consistently less than spectacular.  He’s only a slight favorite because there’s always a chance Silva could come out like it’s 2002 and floor him in the first two minutes.  I doubt that will happen.  We’re going to see a more patient Silva, but I still think Franklin presents a style problem for him if he can stay on the move and pick him apart.  It might not be pretty, but Franklin takes a decision.  The Bet: $20 on Franklin.

- Looking at Kongo/Velasquez, you really have to ask yourself who can and will impose their gameplan on the other guy.  If Velasquez commits himself to wrestling Kongo, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to take this.  If he tries to play kickboxer like he did against Denis Stojnic, he’s asking to get knocked out.  Unless he’s an absolute moron, Velasquez knows this.  And even if he were a moron his trainers at AKA would have drilled it in him by now.  He’s going to wrestle his way to a win here and there’s nothing Kongo can do about it.  At those odds, however, I’m laying off.

- So let’s talk underdogs for a moment.  Al-Turk has got nothing for Cro Cop,  Saunders really isn’t ready for Swick, Story’s making his UFC debut (and you know how that goes), Buchholz, Sobotta, and Delgado are all “opponents” for the sake of this card.  That leaves us with Dan Hardy, Caol Uno, and Denis Stojnic.  Of those three, I’ll take Hardy and Uno.  Hardy has the best line and Davis is a good style match-up for him if he can use his superior speed.  Uno’s been out the game almost a year, but Spencer Fisher hasn’t beaten anyone really good in at least two years.  The Bet(s): $20 on Hardy and Uno.

Absolutely Don’t Bet Against: Cro Cop.  Al-Turk is a gimme opponent for him even if he’s not fully restored to the headkicker of old.  His experience alone is enough to win this.

Official Cage Potato Parlay: Franklin + Velasquez + Cro Cop + Swick


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C-Bus Allstar- June 11, 2009 at 6:48 am
Yeah I've got 40 bucks that says Spencer Fisher lays on Caol Uno for 3 rounds and absolutely pummels him.

Fisher by not so boring decision.
ArmFarmer- June 11, 2009 at 4:31 am
Delgado is a disgrace to the sport he deserved all the shit he got on tuf and more. It was baffling to me that people hated on Frank Mir for calling him out on his fake black belt. There are people that have been training bjj for 6-8 years and don't have a blackbelt and this little twirp said he got his in 2 weeks. How can anyone respect that.. and how can he possibly think his belt is legit has no one filled him in that you can't get a black belt in two weeks?? Roli Delgado.. you are living a lie and I hate you. I look forward to seeing you get smashed.
Chri534.- June 11, 2009 at 2:29 am
Don't ruin it for me asshole, I haven't gotten it in the mail yet.
NECROPHYTE- June 11, 2009 at 1:54 am
In that movie Kelly Kapowski shoots off Ace's robotic cock with a laser.
Fuckyerfrat- June 11, 2009 at 1:12 am
just curious, are those the same trainers at AKA that tell Koscheck to wrestle? If that's the case Kongo all the way.

Silva, Hardy, Fisher, Swick, Velasquez, Cro Cop. That's where my scratch is headed.
BM2- June 10, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Hardy and Uno are pretty good value, methinks.
RJeezy- June 10, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Personally I'd take out a $4,000 loan and put it on Paul Kelly. There's no way he loses, absolutely none. In fact, me getting a $4,000 loan to bet with has better odds than Roli winning.
Chri534.- June 10, 2009 at 9:08 pm
I like your parlay...which may be bad for you because my most certain betting thoughts almost never pan out. Also, I'd just like to proudly say that I bought a copy of Cyborg Soldier on eBay for $3.50...shipping was $3.00 of it.
My Fight Wiffa Cheeto- June 10, 2009 at 8:19 pm
I'm with Myles. It's all about Saunders.

WAR ATT BABY!!!
ItburnswhenIpee- June 10, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Crocop takes Lesnar, Machida and Anderson Silva in an epic 4 way groupie...

Whoops, damn that beer!

Crocop deserves a spectacular comeback and retirement at the top... wish in one hand...
831 Son- June 10, 2009 at 6:54 pm
I got: Franklin+Kongo+CroCop for sure. Others are risky.
Myles Kilometers- June 10, 2009 at 6:13 pm
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Saunders destroys Swick.
Amancio- June 10, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Franklin is taking this fight; Wanderlei is no Anderson Silva.
Miles- June 10, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Gonna lose that bet against my boy spencer.
UFC fan- June 10, 2009 at 5:55 pm
My money goes on Kongo all the way.
And sorry Ben There is NO way I am betting crocrap ever again.
I don't care if they throw you in there against him, I will pick YOU.
Cathedron- June 10, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Franklin. Money in the bank.

My money would be on Kongo if the odds were just a little better. I just don't feel Valesquez is quite ready for the big time (mentally, at least), but I'm just not certain enough to put my money where my mouth is.

I'm wavering on CC/Turk. I remember the last time Cro Cop had a fight he should have easily won. We got to see a spectacular head kick, at least.

The real action is always in the undercard. Bucholz, Sobotta, and Delgado look like good money to me. If even one of them wins, you just broke even, so it's a decent bet. If two of them win, you just bought a good hooker for the weekend (ie - no track marks, bareback, and she'll say you're "huge"). If all three win... more hookers.
Diggler- June 10, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Silva
Saunders
Kongo

I don't understand why everyone is on Velasquez nuts. Kongo has the experience to beat him. Saunders looked way too good in his last outing for me to bet against him.

As for Rich, his nose is gonna get broken again. He probably has nightmares about the clinch.
ReDx- June 10, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Denis Stojnic is going to kill Stefan. With Denis being the underdog, you can make some quick cash on that one. If anybody remembers, Stefan is the beanpole heavyweight that got TKO'd(although questionable) in 54 seconds by Dos Santos whereas Denis took a massive beating from Cain and survived until the second round.

Stojnic by 1st rd stoppage due to strikes
Slag- June 10, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Everyone's sleeping on Rick Story. He got a great gas tank & wrestling. I'm putting some dough on him.
Redmoose- June 10, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Wanderlei doubters be warned!
Salazin- June 10, 2009 at 5:16 pm
I absolutely love Filipovic, but if he loses he's done.
ColinL- June 10, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Out of the underdogs, I would take Kongo.

He could definitely win.
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